Who's Behind Center Against the Badgers? Baver Answers Colin's Questions

Colin: Do the Buckeyes beat Michigan without Haskins subbing in for the injured Barrett?

Baver: Yes, but what a performance by Dwayne Haskins. Everyone always knew that he had a cannon that JT lacked, but who knew Haskins would play with the poise he did in that kind of game. It also helps when the Buckeye coaches suddenly remember that they have big-time tailbacks after JT goes down. So many similarities to 2014, it’s scary.

Colin: Speaking of the QB’s, who plays against the Badgers? JT had surgery Sunday and Urban tells us he will play Saturday? Really?

Baver: I know; I am not buying it either. Arthroscopic knee surgery can be minor, but Urban seems to be begging people to believe that JT will be behind center Saturday night. As of 48 hours before the B10 title game, I am expecting it to be Dwayne Haskins running the show. We shall see; I could be wrong.

Colin: In other news, JT is first team all Big Ten again. Ho-hum. Thoughts on who were honored (or not) by the media and coaches...

Baver: JT deserved it, no doubt. And it appears that about 80 guys from the Badgers were chosen, and most deserved it. I’m told that this is the first year since 1989 that OSU didn’t have an LB selected 1st or 2nd tm. The Bucks didn’t have any LBs picked 3rd tm either. Honestly? No Buckeye ‘backer deserved it. Guess the Bucks are missing Raekwon and former LB coach Luke Fickell more than I thought they would. Current LB coach Bill Davis’ seat is warming.

Colin: Seems like Bucky Badger vs Buckeyes in a dome is a bad match for them but people said the same thing about Sparty versus OSU a couple years back and they pulled the upset. What do you see happening in this game?

Baver: I realize Wisconsin hasn’t played anybody, but all they can do is beat up on the teams they have on their schedule, and that they’ve done. The Badgers lead the nation in multiple defensive stats, and they pound the ball with Jonathan Taylor, behind an O-line where only the center is shorter than 6’6”, with no linemen weighing less than 315 lbs.

If it’s JT behind center, he needs to have some success through the air. If it’s Haskins, he’s going to have to avoid INTs. With Haskins’ big arm, he has no fear of throwing into coverage, and that’s a double-edged sword. Regardless of who the Bucks go with, the OSU coaches have to trust their tailbacks. It’s a crime that they have kept a leash on Dobbins. Wisconsin is not going to make many mistakes and they are going to test the Buckeye linebackers in the short passing game.

I think the Buckeyes are the safer bet (to win), but I think it’s a toss up. I’ve got it Ohio State 31 Wisconsin 27, but little would surprise me in this one. The 5½ pt spread is a bit high, especially if OSU is without JT. I think Ohio State can win or lose this game with either QB.

Colin: Let's say the Buckeyes win the game convincingly; do you, in your heart think this squad deserves a spot in the playoff?

Baver: Not sure it’s fair to look at Ohio St (by themselves) and ask, “Are they deserving?” If Oklahoma and Ohio St win, then I’d probably give the nod to Bama for the 4th slot, despite the Tide’s lack of quality wins, and them not having a conference title. If TCU beats Oklahoma and Ohio St beats Wisconsin, then yes, I think Ohio St would be more deserving than the other school in consideration.

Colin: Related, Alabama has a really weak resume and the SEC has 5 head coaching positions to replace. Is this really the year to have two teams from the same conference?

Baver: Again, I think the real question is….is someone else more deserving? But if the SEC is part of the debate, I see Sagarin has the SEC West as the top division in CFB again this year....like any other year.

Colin: How do you see the major games playing out this weekend and who makes the big dance when the dust settles?

Baver: I think Georgia wins the rematch against Auburn. I see TCU playing much better in their rematch with Oklahoma, but coming up just short. It’s tough to beat good teams twice, so I think OU and Auburn are in for battles. I like Clemson to advance, but like the Canes to cover the 9½. So against the spread, I like the dogs in those title gms. If OSU and OU win, then it’s a toss-up with Ohio St and Bama for the 4th playoff spot. Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia and Bama are my playoff picks.

Colin: Bonus question: Do you feel four teams is the right amount for the college football playoff or what do you think would be a better system? I'll give my answer: I like four. The regular season really matters which is more than what other sports can say. 

Baver: I am with you; love the 4-team format and the fact that every Saturday means something. I dread the day they expand to 8 teams, and you and I both know that day will come.

Baver with Thoughts on The Game and Terry Glenn

Colin: Terry Glenn….has there or will there ever be another WR who came out of nowhere to explode the way he did at Ohio State in 1995?

Baver: No and no. The guy was a joy to watch. I was sitting in A Deck for the Notre Dame game, pretty close to where Glenn caught the 10-yard pass that he turned into an 82-yd TD. That was the loudest I can ever remember Ohio Stadium. Horrible news about his death. 43 years old - too young to die, and he had overcome so much in his life. Rest in peace, Terry Glenn.

Colin: UM has had a Browns-esque revolving door at QB for the past decade. How can a major school with such strong history at that position been unable to find an All Big Ten quality starter?

Baver: I don’t know exactly, but some of it is probably due to simple bad luck. I mean, 11 Michigan players were taken in the most recent NFL draft, a UM program record. So they are recruiting and developing talent “overall”, no doubt. The recruiting rankings would tell you that they are landing QBs you would expect a school like Michigan to land. So with QBs, maybe they just missed on their scouting, aren’t developing them, or both. Peters did look like he was coming along before his injury last Saturday.

Colin: Will the Buckeyes be able to move the ball consistently in the hostile Big House environment? 

Baver: If the OSU offense does move it consistently, Michigan almost can’t win the game without Ohio State committing a handful of turnovers. The emergence of Mike Weber the past two weeks has to be causing Michigan DC Don Brown some heartburn this week. I don’t think the Bucks will score 48 pts on Michigan like they did on Sparty, but I think they score north of 30, which will put a lot of pressure on a shaky Wolverine offense. The Buckeyes will have to be conscience of #7’s whereabouts on the UM defense at all times. That would be Khalake Hudson, who replaced Jabrill Peppers at that Viper spot. Hudson leads the Big Ten in tackles for losses and has better #’s than Peppers in basically every defensive stat.

Colin: Speaking of that, where does the Big House rank among toughest places to play in the Big Ten?

Baver: I’ve been to four OSU-Michigan games up there (’85, ’97, ’99 & ’01) and three games in Happy Valley (’05, ’14 & ’16). This is shameful of me to admit, but I have never been to a game in Madison. It’s much crazier and louder in Beaver Stadium than the Big House. Beaver Stadium traps in the sound, where it seems to escape more in the Big House. Michigan Stadium seemed much more intimidating when Michigan owned Ohio State in the 80’s and 90’s. But now the tables have turned, and it doesn’t seem so intimidating anymore, does it?

Colin: The Michigan O has struggled all season. How many points would be a good day for them against the silver bullets?

Baver: Looking at the spread and over/under, Vegas projects a Buckeye win in the ballpark of 31-19. If Michigan can find a way to score 24+ points in a 60-minute regulation game, then I think things will be interesting. If Iowa can score 55 on Ohio State, then it’s certainly possibly for UM’s struggling offense to score 24+.

Colin: Final thoughts and prediction?

Baver: John O’Korn is probably going to get the call for Michigan at QB, and I don’t think that’s a good thing for UM. If Brandon Peters was truly knocked out cold against Wisconsin, I don’t think there is any chance he plays tomorrow. In today’s day and age, you just don’t take chances with guys coming off of concussions. Could we see Wilton Speight? Maybe. It probably doesn’t matter, as Michigan QB’s have combined to throw 8 TD’s on the season. To put that into perspective, Johnnie Dixon has 17 catches for Ohio State this yr….8 of those 17 catches have gone for TD’s.

Michigan’s best hope on offense is with their ground game, with the running-back-by-committee trio of Karan Higdon, Chris Evans, and Ty Isaac. That’s been a solid threesome that has combined for 2,016 yds, 5.9 ypc, and 18 TDs on the ground this season.

I think Michigan’s defense, which is strong on the line, at LB and in the secondary, gives them a fighting chance in this game. If they can fluster JT then this is a game that may go down to the wire.

In the end, I think Michigan’s offensive woes likely lead to yet another loss to their bitter rivals. I like Ohio State 34-16.

Bob Ufer's memorable call of the 1973 Michigan-Ohio State pre-game where Ohio State coach Woody Hayes urged his Buckeyes to try and tear down the "GO BLUE M Club Supports You" banner.

Do the Bucks Deserve to Make the Final Four? Baver Answers Colin's Questions

Colin: Whoa. Buckeyes roll Sparty while Iowa cannot move the ball or stop Bucky Badger. What a difference a week makes. Can you explain what just happened?

Baver: Iowa…66 yards of offense in Madison? It about makes you want to puke, doesn’t it? This Buckeye team seems to be carried by emotions more than previous OSU teams. I thought it would be a tight game, but I noted last week that MSU appeared to have been doing it with mirrors all year long. The Spartans can’t run the football and with the Buckeyes executing almost flawlessly on offense, the Spartans were no match for Ohio St.

The Buckeye O-line played their best game of the year. And OSU’s use of unbalanced sets, with trip WRs and the fullback to one side, caused Sparty all kinds of problems. On D, the Buckeye hit Brian Lewerke a couple times early, and I think that rattled him.

Colin: A Mike Weber 2017 coming out party this past Saturday, huh? 

Baver: It was reported in early summer that Mike Weber ran the 4th fasted 40 on the team, and I’m not sure many fans believed it. With Weber finally looking healthy, we got to see that speed. The kid has reportedly worked his ass off to get to where he is now…a good story there.

Colin: On the downside, JT seems to be struggling with confidence again. The two picks were bad, but the under thrown ball to the wide open Baugh was JT at his least effective. How concerned should we be?

Baver: Reasonably concerned. With Michigan and (probably) Wisconsin on the horizon, JT’s accuracy is going to be key.

Colin: On the upside, JT is putting together perhaps the most successful QB career in Buckeye history. How good has this kid been? What are some big wins early in his career people seem to forget or take for granted anytime the offense struggles in 2017? What records will he leave behind?

Baver: JT, with a sprained knee, refused to come out of the 2014 Penn St game in Happy Valley, and ran for 2 TDs in the OT periods to propel OSU to a win. A few weeks later, he threw for 300 yards, running for another 86, and accounted for 5 total TDs, as the Buckeyes upset Sparty in East Lansing. Prior to this year’s Penn St game, that was JT’s best day as a Buckeye, and it launched Ohio St into the Nat’l Title hunt.

JT holds 29 OSU records and isn’t done yet. That includes the record for career-passing yards, and he should break Braxton’s career QB rushing record tomorrow. He also holds the Big Ten record for TD passes (99) and total TDs accounted for (137). Think about that….137 touchdowns….that is about absurd.

A tip of the hat to a class act that has had a remarkable career in Columbus.

Colin: Let's look past Illinois and talk about THE game. You know damn sure Harbaugh and company have seen the film of our linebackers exposed in pass coverage. Can that be fixed in 10 days? 

Baver: We’ll see. UM TEs Sean McKeon and Zach Gentry have 37 catches between them and will likely be a focus of Harbaugh’s attack against OSU after seeing what the Iowa tights did to the Bucks. New starting QB Brandon Peters hit both of them for TDs last week. Hopefully with Worley likely back at his more comfortable position of manning the strong side, this Buckeye LB group will hold up against UM’s short passing game.

Colin: Lots of upsets last weekend has the Buckeyes sort of back in the playoff conversation. Do you truly, in your heart, think this team deserves to make the final four? 

Baver: Right now? Probably not. But ask me again after The Game. I do now think that if the Buckeyes win out, they are close to a 50/50 shot of making the playoff….deserving or not.

Colin: Give us an update on your picks to date and games / lines you will be keeping an eye on this weekend?

Baver: Been a bloodbath the last two weeks. Still,17-13 against the spread on the year. As bad as Illinois is (0-7 in the B10), I think the Illini +41 is the play. Highest Big Ten spread I can ever remember, and I think Urban will want to get his guys out early with TTUN on deck. I’ve got the Bucks winning 41-7. I like Temple at home catching 2 TDs against undefeated UCF. I think the Knights undefeated season could come to an end if the chips fall right for the Owls tomorrow. I liked UM getting 10 in Madison, but that line has dropped to 7 ½. Still, I think you take the points in that one.

Baver's Got OSU Rumors, Future Lines and Even Talks USC v Cougs

Tune into the CD1025 Morning Show with Brian Phillips every Friday at 7:40 to hear Baver's thoughts on Ohio State football and other stuff. follow @baverbuckeybag

Colin: Which stat is more important: OSU breaking passing records against UNLV or 0-3 Baylor hanging 41 points on Oklahoma? 

Baver: It’s a hard game to figure out sometimes, isn’t it? Obviously Oklahoma wasn’t up for Baylor like they were against Ohio State. But the Sooners did what good teams do, and still got the “W” despite not having their best stuff. If I had to pick four Playoff teams right now, Oklahoma would still be one of them.

Colin: Do you see any encouraging signs in the Offense that could lead to consistent success against a good defense like say, Penn State? 

Baver: I don’t know; I guess the Buckeye WRs are making some strides and Austin Mack appears to be on his way to big things before he leaves Columbus. JT again was JT with some passes that make you go “wow”…..and not ”wow” in a good way. But he settled down and started throwing the ball well in the 2nd quarter.  And JT is the guy…..there will be no change at QB. We saw why he starts, as Dwayne Haskins looked like a freshman in his first extended action. Can the OSU offense get it done against a good D? I have my doubts. Dedicating 25+ carries to the tailback position against those D’s would help matters.

Colin: Speaking of Penn State, is Barkley the best player in the country and would you prefer the N lions lose to Michigan or come to the Shoe' undefeated. 

Baver: Barkley is ridiculous, and I’m not sure I have ever seen a prototype tailback quite like him. He’s 230 pounds of solid brick, and watching a kid that size juke Iowa defenders in the open field was jaw dropping. I’d rather face an undefeated Penn State team when they come to town. I think Ohio State needs to show the rest of the nation that they are capable of beating a top-5 team…and need to show it sooner rather than later.

Colin: What can you tell me about Ohio State that may not be common knowledge to most Buckeye fans?

Baver: The rumor this past April was that DT Michael Hill was facing a 6-game suspension to start the 2017 season. Urban then told us in early August that Hill would be held out “a few games”. Meyer now says Hill will miss this week’s Rutgers game, which would be the 5th game Hill will have been held out. What else? Multiple off-shore sites have “Games of the Year” lines that they update weekly as the season progresses. 5 Dimes as of today has OSU fav’d by 7 vs Penn St, OSU fav’d by 14.5 at Iowa, and OSU fav’d by 3.5 at Michigan. The bettors think more highly of Ohio St’s chances than OSU fans do.

Colin: Since you appear with notable Washington State fanatic Brian Phillips on his CD1025 morning show every Friday at 7:40 am, what are your thoughts on the Cougs hosting USC and other games and lines you will be keeping an eye on?

Baver: Urban decided to actually pull his starters in the 1st half last week, and that cost me a cover on OSU, but I did hit the 3 other games, so I am 10-4 against the spread overall now including 3-1 on OSU gms. I see nothing I like really spread wise this week, so let’s look at the OSU – Rutgers game and USC’s trip to Pullman to face Brian Phillips’ Wazzu team.

I think Chris Ash has settled in a bit as a head coach, and will see his squad play OSU a bit closer than the 62-3 drubbing they took in the ‘Shoe last year. If Janarion Grant is full-go for the Knights, that will certainly help their cause. I think Rutgers +30 is the play here. The call: OSU 37 Rutgers 10.

USC played their best game against their best opponent this year (Stanford). But that was in the Coliseum, and now USC must travel to Pullman to face an underrated Wazzu team. Washington St D-line with Mata’Afa, Oguayo, and Luvu will make life difficult at times for Sam Darnold. I see this game going down to the wire, making Wazzu plus the 4 the play, but put a gun to my head and I’d say USC finds a way to win another tough one. 

Baver's Buckeye Bag - Picking Through Oklahoma Debris and Army

Listen to Baver Friday Mornings at 7:40 am on CD1025 and follow @baverbuckeyebag

Colin: Ok, it's the question that's been asked a million times, a million different ways, but here goes: Oklahoma puts 10 guys on the line with one safety and we cannot complete a down field pass. This should be like shooting fish in a barrel. What the hell?

Baver: It’s several things… JT’s inaccuracy, JT not trusting his WRs, the WRs inability to get open, and the offensive game plan. There are HUGE problems with JT and the WRs, no doubt about it. And OSU’s all-time leading passer in several categories may soon find a seat on the bench. But the offense we saw Saturday night is still Urban’s…”same as it ever was…same as it ever was”. And the video on Eleven Warrior’s Ramzy Nasrallah’s Twitter Feed linked here >https://twitter.com/ramzy/status/906929593671712768 shows OU free safety Will Johnson knowing the precise rout Parris Campbell would run before Campbell even ran it. This is mind-boggling. But back to your comment about Oklahoma selling out to stop the run. Ohio State still ran the ball well, getting 101 yards off 16 carries between Dobbins and Weber. Why did they only have 16 combined carries? This is an Urban thing, and the extended 5 ½ year honeymoon officially ended for Urban this past Saturday.

Colin: Teams have adjusted to stop J.T. Barrett. The offensive numbers against Michigan, Clemson and Oklahoma are brutal. Let alone the fact Watson and Mayfield completely out played our QB. That is not the recipe for success. Is there any hope of a J.T. revival?

Baver: I was one of JT’s biggest supporters, and finally started to jump ship after re-watching the Indiana game. After watching the Oklahoma game twice, I have little hope for him. As mentioned before, it’s certainly not all JT’s fault, but his confidence is shot, reminding me a lot of Todd Boeckman’s downward spiral in 2008. If Urban sticks with JT, I will still root my ass off for him and hope I’m wrong.

Colin: Meanwhile, the defense hasn't exactly been kicking ass and taking names either. What do you see on that side of the ball?

Baver: The D-line is still fine, actually better than fine. The back-7 was horrendous Saturday. Losing Raekwon McMillian has hurt way more than I thought it would. Worley looked lost all night against OU, and preseason All-American Jerome Baker looked lost as well. I never saw this coming….not thinking a Greg Schiano defense would get shredded at any point this season. Damon Arnette making huge strides in the offseason? Not. JUCO transfer Kendall Sheffield the next great OSU corner? Far from it, so far. And the safeties appeared to be out of position much of the evening as Baker Mayfield carved up the entire back-7.

Colin: Does anything that happens against Army this weekend matter at all?

Baver: Who knows, maybe JT gets some confidence back, or maybe we get a look at Burrow or Haskins, possibly even in the first half. I loved how Jim Tressel bent over backwards to salute Navy when they came here, but actually playing these service academies is not good for your team. Gotta hope the Bucks avoid injuries facing Army’s blocking schemes, specifically cut blocks. And you have to spend all kinds of time stopping an offense you won’t see again during the season. Urban said they spent time in August preparing for Army, noting that you can’t play that kind of option attack with only one week of preparation. I do think however, that OSU covers the 30-pt spread in similar fashion to how they covered late against Indiana. I look for 4 or 5 second half Buckeye TDs after the Black Knights run out of gas. The call: 48-14 Ohio State.

Colin: What other games and lines will you be keeping an eye on this weekend?

Baver: Give me Tom Herman in the underdog roll every time….as the Longhorns visit USC in the Coliseum. Should be a good game, and I’ll gladly take Texas and the 16 pts there. USC made me pay last week, but I’ll try again. And I will stick with Oklahoma St again this week, laying 13 ½ pts at Pittsburgh. Seems like a lot of points on the road, but I’m still not convinced anyone outside of Alabama can slow down the Ok State offense. And I like Clemson -3 at Louisville, even though they are in a letdown spot after their win over Gus’ Auburn Tigers. Clemson is still loaded and I think will be too much for Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals.

Baver's Buckeye Bag / Ohio State vs Indiana - by Brent Baver

Every week of the college football season, Pencilstorm Buckeye guru answers our questions and yours. Follow and shoot him questions @baverbuckeyebag

Colin: Why did we schedule a conference weeknight road opener and what is the upside?

Brent: I think Gene Smith likes to show that OSU is willing to be a “team player”, where it will do some of the things that lesser B1G programs do, like playing a Thursday night game. In that sense, I think it’s pathetic. Ohio State is the elite of the elite, and should never be playing on a Thursday night. But my guess is that Urban was up for this, in that it gives them 2 extra days to prepare for a top-10 Oklahoma team.

Colin: Lots being made about the OSU D-Line playing more aggressive this year. What's the ceiling for this unit compared to past great Buckeye lines? 

Brent: It’s definitely the deepest unit I have seen here in the 40+ years I have been following Ohio State. Opposing coordinators have to be shaking their heads when they see Nick Bosa and Jalyn Holmes come in as “backups”. And it sounds like DT Dre’Mont Jones has made as much progress as any player on the team, other than maybe Damon Arnette. Not sure the 4 starters are as good as the ’02 foursome of Will Smith, Darion Scott, Kenny Peterson and Tim Anderson, but when you take depth into account, I think it will end up being the best D-line OSU has ever had.

Colin: Could Weber see his job threatened but upstart JK Dobbins? Any other youngsters you expect to have an impact right out of the gate?

Brent: A month ago I would have told you no way, but with Weber’s hamstring and Dobbins huge camp, I now think Dobbins will steal a decent amount of Weber’s carries. It also sounds like Dobbins is ahead of the curve in terms of blocking, a skill Urban demands of his backs and receivers. If healthy, I think Weber will likely remain your #1 guy all year, but he had a recent setback with the hammy. As for other youngsters, Kendall Sheffield is going to get a lot of PT as the 3rd CB. True frosh Jeffrey Okudah and Shawn Wade will push the top 3 corners as the season goes on.

Colin: Guest question from Rob Bumgarner: Can Isiah Prince hold up on the O Line?

Brent: I guess I believe the “he’s turned the corner” talk to an extent, but I still have to see it to really believe it. There has never been a question regarding Prince’s talent, which is part of the reason why he kept his job the entire 2016 season despite his poor protection numbers. The Bucks really, really need Prince to step up if they want to challenge for a Nat’l Title.

Colin: How do you see this game going down?

Brent: My how things have changed with the Hoosiers, as they are not far from having top 5 defense in the league, while their offense may struggle. With a suspect O-line and probably the weakest set of backs in the league, Indiana is going to struggle scoring on an OSU defense that is the class of the B1G. If Indiana is going to have success on O, it will be through the air, as they have a solid QB in Lagow, and a nice set of WRs as long as you add Simmie Cobbs to the group. Cobbs may be held out Thursday night based on a July arrest. I think this one stays tight for awhile, with Ohio State’s depth wearing the Hoosiers down and the Buckeyes covering late. I’ll say Ohio State 35-10.

Colin: It seems like all the smart money is on Bama, Bucks, USC and FSU being the final four. Who of that group is most vulnerable and who do see you see as a sleeper nationally?

Brent: I think USC is the most vulnerable with the expectations now so much higher, and I still question whether Todd Helton is the guy for USC. Not sure you can call Washington a sleeper after making the Playoff a year ago, but few are talking about them this year, as it’s all USC this and USC that. I expect Washington to win the Pac 10 again. A deeper sleeper? Hard for me to choose one as all these teams seem to have material weaknesses, but maybe one out of the group of Miami, Texas, or dare I say it….Michigan.

Colin: Some big match-ups for opening weekend. What other games and lines will you be keeping an eye on?

Brent: It wouldn’t shock me to see the Noles upset Bama, although going against Bama in these early games is usually not smart. I do like FSU catching 7 pts in this one, but think Bama gets the W. By the way, Alabama is 0-3 (outright) in their last 3 games when they haven’t had Lane Kiffin as their OC. The Michigan – Florida game should be an old fashion defensive struggle. I tend to think Michigan pulls this one out, but if you can catch more than a FG, like it is now with the Gators a 3 ½ pt dog, I think you take the points. There is really nothing else that jumps out at me from a betting standpoint in Wk 1.