Baver Answers Colin's College Football Questions. Week One.

Click Here For 'Baver's Buckeye Bag, OSU v Navy'

Each week, Pencilstorm editor Colin G. will pose some questions to our resident college football know-it-all Brent Baver about the upcoming weekend. Feel free to e-mail your questions for the Baver to:  pencilstorm@gmail.com

1) Wouldn't you agree that any Ohio State fan that pays to subscribe to the SEC Network might as well write a check to the Alabama Crimson Tide general recruiting fund?

I wouldn’t look at it that way.  Let’s face it…the SEC is playing at another level right now, when compared to the Big Ten and most of the other conferences.  I root against the SEC in just about every game they play against any other conference, but I’m not boycotting the SEC network.  I get too much enjoyment out of watching the better teams in college football square off.  The Texas A&M upset of 'Bama in Alabama in 2012 was as good as it gets.  Now, that game probably wouldn’t have been on the SEC network if the network was around two seasons ago.  But, good college football is good college football.  Enjoy it if you’ve got the time and money.

2) Wisconsin is finally playing a decent school in the non-conference schedule. What are the chances Bucky Badger doesn't embarrass the Big Ten in the match up with LSU?

I don’t think Wisconsin will embarrass the Big Ten, but if I’m a bettor, I like LSU laying the points (currently 5) in this one.  Overall, the Big Ten doesn’t fair well when they travel this far and play a team like LSU.  And Les Miles thrives on these types of games.  But this doesn’t appear to be one of LSU’s better teams; lots of newcomers.  Wisconsin had to replace their entire front seven on D, but has one of the best rushing attacks in the country.  Can Wisky run the ball effectively against LSU?  Not so sure.  Can LSU run the ball effectively against the Badgers?  I think so, and I think that will be the difference.  I’m rooting for the Big Ten here, but I think LSU wins this one by 10 to 14 points.

3) Does App State have any chance to pull another upset on Michigan?

The chances are slightly better than none.  The Mountaineers are now in the FBS (formerly called D1-A), having played their last football in the FCS (formerly called D-1AA) this past season.  But that doesn’t matter.  What matters most is that Michigan will be much more focused than they were in 2007, and should hammer Appy State.  Michigan is going to want to make a statement.  And this year’s Appalachian State team is simply not as good as their 2007 team, despite their step up to the FBS.  The spread is somewhere around 5 TD’s for a reason and the 2007 upset is the type of upset that happens maybe once in every 1,000 CFB games played.

4) If Michigan loses, is that the end of Brady Hoke?

If they lose to Appy State again?  I would say yes….the 2014 season would be Hoke’s last as Michigan head coach, although I’d think he’d make it to the end of the regular season.  But again, I think Michigan will roll the Mountaineers, and I tend to think Brady Hoke will be back at Michigan in 2015.  Their defense is much improved, and I think he can survive an 8-4 year, which is where I think Michigan will end up (prior to the bowl season).  Would a coach survive with the same 4-year record at Ohio State?  Don’t think so.

5) If you were a gambling man, what games/lines do you like for this first weekend of college football?

I loved Arkansas getting 21.5 against Auburn, but that line has since dropped to 19, so I wasn’t the only one who liked getting 3 TD's-plus.  Arkansas should be much improved and Auburn has a bull’s-eye on their chest after their run last year.  I think the Florida State – Oklahoma State game will be another beatdown, much like most Florida State games a year ago.  Oklahoma State lost everybody and the ‘Noles look even better on paper this year than they did a year ago.  And I like Virginia getting 3 TD’s at home against UCLA.  UCLA has to travel across the country, and that is so much of a bigger deal than most people think it is.  The Bruins are improved, but the Cavs will show bigger improvement in ’14 than the Bruins.

Baver's Buckeye Bag, OSU v Navy - by Brent Baver

Baver’s Buckeye Bag 8/26/14  - OSU v Navy 

Let’s try to answer some of the popular questions everyone is asking….

How in the world do you replace Braxton Miller?

You don’t.  I can’t remember a time when Ohio State lost as much going from QB1 to QB2.  This isn’t so much because of “who” the backups are, but because of “where” the backups are right now compared to Braxton, a former Heisman frontrunner.  With the loss of Miller, the sportsbooks have moved their lines in games involving Ohio State, anywhere from 3 1/2 to 5 1/2 points per game.  (That includes “Games of the Year” lines.)  I think JT Barrett will be a good one before he leaves OSU, but it’s hard for me to see him being game-ready at this point in his career.  And I’m not sure Barrett has 100% of his mobility back from his 2012 ACL tear. 

I’m not ruling out Cardale Jones yet.  Barrett will get the first shot, but the coaches may want to take a look at Jones at some point against Navy, regardless of how Barrett plays.   Of the two, Barrett is more accurate and appears to have better control of the offense right now.  But Cardale has an NFL arm, and although maybe not quite as mobile as Barrett, Jones moves well for a 250-pound guy.  Whether it’s Jones or Barrett, the new QB will be on a tighter leash than Braxton was.  Urban Meyer and Tom Herman will count on Dontre Wilson and the tailbacks to shoulder the load and will limit the chances of QB miscues costing them a game.

I don’t want to sell doom and gloom here; the good news is that the Miller injury will push the rest of this team.  The OSU players that talk to the media will get sick of answering Braxton Miller questions.  Winning the Big Ten is certainly still a reasonable goal.   As for the national title, it’s definitely a longer shot, but the 2002 Ohio State team showed you what can happen if you catch some breaks.  

Click here for Braxton Miller Highlights. 

How do you replace Carlos Hyde and 4 starters from an elite O-line? And who are the new faces?

The Bucks don’t have a tailback on the roster that can put up the numbers that Hyde did a year ago, but they still have plenty of talent and depth.  If healthy, a bulked-up Ezekiel Elliott (reportedly 225 lbs) will get the first shot at TB, and Zeke should “eventually” be a good one.  Next in line is Rod Smith, who had a nice fall camp.  Smith still needs to show that he can hang onto the football and stay out of Urban’s dog house, or Brionte Dunn and/or true frosh Curtis Samuel may play into the TB mix.

On the O-line, Taylor Decker, the lone returning starter, slides from RT to LT.  He should be solid and I don’t expect much of a downgrade from Mewhort to Decker, if any at all.  Pat Elflein played pretty well in place of Marcus Hall late last year, and should be solid at RG.  As of 8/25, it was still up in the air as to who the starters at LG (Joel Hale, Billy Price or Antonio Underwood) and at center (Jacoby Boren or Bama transfer Chad Lindsay) would be.  Daryl Baldwin is said to have made some strides at RT.  You may see some growing pains at LG and center, but O-line coach Ed Warinner is as good as it gets, and I expect this line to be solid once they settle in.

With Chris Ash brought in as “Co-Defensive Coordinator”, what changes will we see?

Although I can’t 100% confirm this, everything I hear is that Ash will ultimately be calling the shots for the Buckeye defense this year.  I wouldn’t get too hung up on titles, so Chris Ash having the “co-DC” title and Luke Fickell having the “DC” title (without the “co-“) doesn’t mean much.  I love Luke Fickell, but let’s face it…you don’t charge $80 to $140 a ticket and pay Urban Meyer $4.5 mil-plus per year, then turn around and play defense like OSU did last season.

The specific changes?  It will be more of an aggressive approach, with the corners playing tight coverage and no longer ceding the short gains.  The strong-side LB spot will now be manned by a defender more adept at stopping the pass; the top two SLBs, Darron Lee and Christopher Worley, are both former safeties.  Continuing with that theme, the nickelback will now likely be a cornerback, as opposed to a safety that often manned that spot in the past.  Ash has said that they will normally play their base defense (3 LBs, 4 DBs) on 1st and 2nd downs, regardless of the number of WRs their opponent lines up.  Lee and Worley are smaller LBs that Ash believes can hold their own in pass coverage and still be physical defending the run.

Is the Buckeye D-line really as good as they say it is?

Let’s just say “potentially”.  It had been a long time since we had seen a true-frosh DE play the way Joey Bosa did last year; probably have to go back to Vrabel/Finkes in ‘93.  Bosa is a beast.  You have Noah Spence, a probable 1st round draft pick, opposite Bosa.  There is another possible first round draft pick in DT Michael Bennett.  Adolphus Washington slides down to DT.  Washington has been slowed by injuries in the past, but he may have more upside than the other three heralded starters.  If healthy, this unit is, at the very least, the best D-line in the Big Ten.

But I am not sure it is as deep as people think it is.  Backup DT Donovan Munger should be a star before he leaves here.  Tommy Schutt, Chris Carter and Michael Hill are also solid backup DTs.  But you don’t have that depth at DE, with Steve Miller being the only backup with legit playing experience.  Bosa and Spence have to stay healthy, and you unfortunately have Spence missing the first two games, serving a suspension.

Tell me about Navy and Saturday’s matchup.

The last time the Bucks faced Navy (2009), it wasn’t pretty, with OSU stopping a late two-point conversion to hang on.  Navy still runs their flexbone triple option and it’s still “not fun” to defend.  QB Keenan Reynolds runs the Navy offense and put up big time numbers last year (1,346 rushing yds & 31 rushing TDs).  As mentioned, Ash wants to play his base defense (3 LBs, 4 DBs) most of the time, and against Navy’s option, you will see the Bucks in the nickel even less often. 

The Bucks need to get Dontre Wilson going on offense, and a tailback (be it Zeke, R. Smith or whoever) needs to step up.  It will certainly help matters if Barrett shows Navy that he can throw the ball downfield.  Otherwise, the Navy defense will make sure Wilson doesn’t kill them on the edge.  I am not totally buying the hype that this OSU LB core is better than last year’s when Ryan Shazier was around.  If the Buckeye defense doesn’t play fundamental, assignment football, the Navy option attack will surely put points on the board. 

I expect this Buckeye team to be sky high for this one, wanting to show the rest of the nation that they are a national contender without Braxton Miller.  In the end, I think the Bucks make enough big plays and play “good enough” defense to get it done.

Prediction: Ohio State 38 Navy 21.

Secret Bonus Track….

HQ link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSOMRatHPkA

Code Reds - Kevin J. Elliott and Ryan Haye Have Your Midseason Report

1) If I somebody told you before the season that Billy Hamilton would lead all rookies in hits & steals and Frazier, Mesorasco and Alfredo Simon would play in the All-Star Game would have believed it?  (questions by Colin Gawel)

Kevin)  No, not a bit. The only thing I predicted was Hamilton's mastery of the base pads. He's been the biggest surprise by far. This is not to mention his excellent defense in CF and that many of those hits have been for extra bases. There's even some power there at times. 

As for Frazier, I always thought he was never playing to his potential, so it's nice to see him have a breakout season. Please keep this up in the second half, dear Toddfather. 
Mesoraco has been called the next Johnny Bench since he was drafted, so it's been another surprise to see him play up to that title this quickly. He'll be a stud behind the plate for many years in a Reds uniform. 

That Simon is pitching like our Number Two guy is just icing on the cake. It's kind of a too good to be true scenario with him. Hard to believe all of them will post the same numbers in the second half, but with that said they are all still rising. If anything this really bodes well for the Reds of the future. 

Ryan) Although I did believe that Hamilton would develop into a solid everyday player, nobody - and I mean nobody - predicted that the dude would become one the best defensive center fielders in the league, or that he would swing the bat with the power that he’s displayed. His home-runs have been bombs. Like I said previously, the comparisons to Henderson were unfair and premature but his play has put him in the running for Rookie of the Year.

I have always loved Frazier, and, like Kevin, I felt he was underachieving mostly due to his complete lack of awareness of the strike zone, but here we are now and Frazier is an All-Star and is currently the best bat on the team…

…Except for Mezz. Last year my brother (a Pirates fan and a big fat jerk) sent me a text saying that Mezz was a bust. I struggled to defend him. Perhaps Mezz intercepted that text because the dude has been huge this year. He calls a great game, his defense is solid and he’s hitting the ball, and he’s hitting it when it matters. I love this guy and I can’t wait to see what he can do now that he has (hopefully) his injuries behind him.

2) Conversely, what would you have guessed to be the Reds record at the break if I told you Jay Bruce was hitting.229, Joey Votto would only have have 23 RBI and Mat Latos 2 wins?

Kevin) Let us not forget the "dream" season of 2012 -- the last time we won the Division -- Votto left the team in July and the team played their best baseball of the season in his absence. For now, we just have put Votto in the rearview and not worry too much about not having him in the line-up. As for Bruce, I think he will make up for a weak first half, especially when the team is playing well. And Latos, well, the pitching staff has been the brightest spot so far, and in his return he's been very consistent, so having him around can only make more ticks in the win column in the second half. 

Ryan) I came into the season thinking this team couldn’t hit and part of me still thinks that. I was sure they would compete because of their pitching but with Latos going down and Chapman going down, coupled with Cingrani’s bad start I had all but lost hope. Who knew Simon would do what he’s doing. Guessing them to be .500 based on your scenario would have been foolishly optimistic.

3) So sitting at a very respectable 51-44 at the break, is this Reds glass half full of Hudepohl or half empty? 
 

Kevin) Half Full. This is certainly a team without its core (and half their payroll) in the line-up, but they've been scrappy, full of heart, and able to come back from big deficits -- something that wasn't happening at the beginning of the season. Here are some numbers to ponder -- the Reds are 28-17 vs. NL Central opponents in the first half -- that's best in the Division. We have 30 games remaining against the Central, including most of September which ends with series against the Brewers, Cards, and Pirates. I like those odds when it's crunch time.

Ryan) I’m a fan so I will say half full but there’s a big part of me that worries about their inability to beat the Cardinals, and there’s no way they can continue to dominate the Brewers. I mean right? 

The more objective side of me says that glass is half-empty. Can we expect the frail Hamilton to hold up? Bruce is hitting .229. Will Frazier revert back to a strike zone the size of Pangea? And what of Simon? Simon is quickly reaching his high water mark in total innings in a season, and anyone that follows baseball knows that that’s an issue. Dead arm happens to the best of them, except oddly enough Homer Bailey who seems to get stronger as the year goes, there’s no reason to think it’s not going to happen with Simon. Want proof? Generally speaking, a pitcher’s opening day fastball is the fastball we see at the All-Star break: however, Simon’s fastball is -0.6 off his opening day mark (redlegnation.com). Is he getting tired, or is he just learning how to pitch, thus saving his arm? That’s a question that will only be answered as the season progresses. Added to that is the effect Votto’s injury is having on defense. Recently, the Reds put Bruce on first base which means they removed a gold glover from his position and placed him in a position that he’s never played before—and he quickly made a costly error. If Price keeps up that kind of lunacy it will start costing them games.

4)The Reds four game sweep of the Giants in Frisco followed by being swept by the Padres sums up what it has been like to be a fan of the 2014 Reds. What is your first half moment where you felt best about this team? At what point did you wonder if the wheels were going to come completely off? 

Kevin) I guess I would have to go with this last home stand and only losing two games. They did this with no Votto and no Phillips -- and with guys like Ramon Santiago and Kris Negron coming off of the bench to produce big. Of course that's not going to happen consistently, but we can dream. I'll have to go with that series against the Padres as the point where I almost gave up and packed it in for the season. Or pretty much any time Homer Bailey takes the mound. That we are talking Reds in the middle of July is glorious. 

Ryan) I was sure the West Coast swing was going to do them in—like it does almost every year. I was also sure three or four other times during the first half. Let’s face it, the wheels may not have been off before July but they were close.

5)The team has been ravaged by injuries. Should the front office look to make a move to sure up the line-up for a deep playoff run? What would you like to see added and who do you think is expendable? Or do we stand pat? 
 

Kevin) I think the front office will need to be very aggressive in filling the holes. At the start of the season it was LF and the front of the bullpen -- while those remain, we also need to think about 2B (and 1B for that matter).  It was the New Radicals guy who said "You only get what you give" -- so ideally I'd love to see a blockbuster trade. Can I offer this up? How about Brandon Phillips, Alfredo Simon, Sean Marshall, and Tucker Barnhart for Troy Tulowiski? I'm thinking despite the tanking Rockies, Tulo likes the weed in Denver too much to leave. But that's an offer Colorado would be silly to refuse, right? 

Starting pitching is something we have plenty of....including our top prospect Robert Stephenson pitching lights-out in the minors and the recently signed Cuban phenom Raisel Iglesias. So I can see the Reds dealing a solid starter like Simon or Leake in order to get something we can use NOW. Trends show us they like to go for guys in slumps looking for a second life (i.e. Rolen, Ludwick, Schumaker). I suspect we will have someone like Ben Zobrist or Josh Willingham (who are already in the trade rumors). I just hope it's not another former Card. 

Or what about convincing Adam Dunn to split sometime between LF and 1B for his twilight years? The guy loves hitting HRs in GABP. 

Ryan) They should make a move but don’t hold your breath. Jocketty slept through the off-season and, honestly, who’s out there? Stanton? And what do you give up for a Zobrist or Willingham? No way the Rockies take that trade, Phillips’ salary is too big and his best days are behind him, Simon is still unproven at this point, and Marshall is ALWAYS hurt, but I guess it never hurts to ask. 

I mostly look for the Reds to stay pat save a small move here or there. I don’t like it, but it’s what I’ve been conditioned to believe.

6) The Reds win the division if…
 

Kevin) We dominate the Central for the remainder of the season. Especially in September, with a healthy Votto and Phillips and a "just getting hot" Bruce putting in most of the work. Remember, as I type this, we are only 1.5 games out of 1st place. We could be in 1st with a sweep of the Yankees this weekend. Hold on hope. It's definitely possible, especially if Milwaukee and St. Louis take a well-needed dive. 

Ryan) This question is as easy to hit out of the park as an Ondrusek fast ball…To win the division you have to figure out a way to beat the Cardinals. Easy peasy. 

 7) The Reds sneak into the wild card if… 

Kevin) The current situation holds. I can't see THIS team, the one currently on the field, as going too far in the playoffs, but can see them winning just enough to sneak in. That would be a triumph. This is the scenario I likely see. With our pitching staff healthy, it's hard for us to lose too many games. I'll take a wild card given all this team has been through. Oh, and give Bryan Price the NL Manager of the Year for making it so. 

Ryan) No question the Reds have the best rotation in the division, so I agree with Kevin on this one. Even if Simon comes back to earth a little (which he will) and Cueto coming back to earth a little (which he will), I see this rotation keeping them in most games. The Reds formula must be to stay close and let the back end of the bullpen shut teams down. 

8) The Reds are golfing the first week of October if..

Kevin) We lose any of our starters to injury and/or don't make a move before the trade deadline. I have faith this team has been dealt the ungrateful hand of fate too much already this season, so I don't see this last scenario happening. We will be playing October baseball. But if it does come down to this, my wish is that the Pirates are the only team from this Division that survives. 

Ryan)They don’t win the division. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that if a wild-card does come out of this division it will be the Cards or Brewers. 

Ryan Haye and Kevin J. Elliott are both widely respected musicians and writers. More importantly, they know a shit ton about baseball and specifically, the Cincinnati Reds. 

LeBron James is Returning To Cleveland!! Hate To Say I Told You So! - by Colin G.

I wrote this in June 2013. OOOOOOOOOOOO YEAH!!!!!! Bust. 

"LeBron James is Returning to Cleveland" (June 2013)

Accomplishing all he set out to do in leaving his hometown to join the Miami Heat, LeBron James will be returning to the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 2015 NBA season. The two biggest reasons LBJ is abandoning South Beach for the North Shore are money and legacy. The order is debatable, but let's state the obvious first.

Money

LeBron James is the planet's most underpaid athlete. Thanks to the NBA salary cap, LBJ didn't rank in the top FIFTY highest paid athletes in the world according to wages earned in 2013. Ouch. Fighter Manny Pacquiao checked in at #1 earning a cool $52,000,000 for his efforts. Peyton Manning rounds out the bottom at #50 squeezing by on a paltry $18,000,000. Despite the cap, the Association has a number of players checking in, including Kobe Bryant (#8), Brandon Roy (#23), Carmelo Anthony (#32), Dwight Howard (#44) and good old "I didn't know he was still in the league" Elton Brand (#48). There are some other players mixed in, but this should give you some idea of the financial snub the King is enduring.

With David Stern's plantation-style compensation plan firmly in place, we are left to speculate what LeBron would be worth on the open market to an owner like Mark Cuban or that Russian mogul who owns the nets. Hell, I think even Manchester United would pony up to get LeBron on the pitch, if only for merchandising. I can hear you thinking, "No worries, Bron-Bron cashes in on endorsements, right?" Uh, actually, LBJ destroyed that revenue stream when he uttered those now infamous words: "I'm taking my talents to South Beach." to a live TV audience. 

Overnight, according to the 'Q' rating which determines the marketability of potential celebrities to advertisers, LBJ dropped an unheard of 77%. Or put another way, he went from being the single most popular athlete on the planet to ranking in the bottom six along with the likes of Michael Vick and Terrell Owens.

Obviously winning titles has helped that Q rating recover and so does the fact that Lebron is truly a good guy. The problem with LBJ these days isn't his likeability, that has recovered and deservingly so, it is that his storyline is much less compelling than it was or could be. He is back to making respectable dough (40 million in endorsements in 2013) but still a far cry from when his goal was to be "the first billion dollar athlete."

Which of the following story lines makes for more compelling entertainment?

Storyline #1: "Star athlete leaves for greener pastures and attempts to win multiple titles surrounded by highly paid mercenaries in a city known for apathetic sports fans"

Storyline #2: "Prodigal Son returns to his long suffering hometown to make good on a promise to finally bring the fans a title."  

The "Prodigal LeBron" returning home would instantly become the top story in every sport and would remain so until Lebron either brought home the gold or died trying. Even the NFL would kneel before "The Chosen One." 

Could you imagine the ratings? It's a wonder that ABC, ESPN and NIKE don't just pony up a cool hundred million under the table just to entice LeBron to return home to fulfill his destiny. 

Legacy

I wonder if LeBron regrets that giant "Chosen One" tattoo the way middle-aged bankers regret that Tasmanian Devil tattoo they are forced to sport on the beach. Just to refresh, LeBron anointed himself the chosen one in reference to him being chosen to end Cleveland's long miserable title-less history. It wasn't forced on him. Jim Brown did not hold him down and make him get the tattoo. Now he has to stare at it everyday. Well, sorta, in the mirror. Still... Chosen one? Chosen to add trophies to Dwayne Wade and South Florida's already well-stocked trophy case? How Biblical indeed.

And let's face it, the NBA is an Alpha Dog game and the big boys mocked LBJ for abandoning "his" team and jumping ship to find an easier path to the title. The reasoning behind his decision was solid, and yes, it worked. But... to the likes of Jordan, Bird, Thomas, Magic, Kobe...Lebron was a pussy for giving up. I'm not saying that is entirely fair, but the big NBA Alpha Dogs will hold that against LBJ when it comes to "all time greatness" comparisons and so forth. They stuck it out through tough times with "their" teams , LBJ caved and ran for help. If Lebron doesn't make good with "his" team, he better get ready for a lifetime of smirks and ball-busting when he hangs around the ice sculpture with the other NBA greats at reunion parties. Or to put it bluntly: One title in Cleveland is worth fifteen in Miami. Speaking of titles.....

 Winning Titles

 Since LeBron took his talents South, the Cavs have added Kyrie Irving along with a host of other young talented players and even have the #1 overall pick in this year's NBA draft. Additionally, they have plenty of cap space to add LBJ and even a veteran role player or two. In fact, according to the oddsmakers, if Lebron joined the Cavs they would be odds on favorites to win the NBA title. How bad would Miami be without LeBron anyway? 22-60 sounds about right.

LeBron Never Left Akron Anyway

His family and residence still remain in Akron. No movers or school changes needed.

But What About Dan Gilbert and All The Stupid Cleveland Fans? 

As a diehard sportstown, it's fair to say Cleveland has more than it's fair share of idiots who would resist the King returning to his kingdom. Cavs owner Dan Gilbert was preaching to the lowest common denominator when he lost his shit and went on that top- shelf fueled twitter rant bashing LBJ and promising the Cavs would win a title before Lebron. Uh yeah, sure we will Dan. 

While nobody can guarantee a title, we do know for sure that the value of the Cleveland franchise would double overnight when LBJ signs on. I'm sure that is plenty of incentive for Mr. Gilbert to make nice and welcome the King home. As for the fans, the stupid ones will fall in line soon enough as the winning begins.

I'll Just Go Ahead And Write What Lebron Should Say To Avoid Another Decision Debacle

 "I would like to start by thanking the Miami Heat organization, my teammates and especially the fans for making my time in South Beach so enjoyable. I gave my all and I think we enjoyed some great moments together. For this I will be forever grateful. When I came to Miami, I had never lived anywhere outside of my hometown of Akron, Ohio. I never had the college experience or a chance to experience something completely different from what I knew growing up. With the benefit of these past years, I can see know how much I have matured during my time in the Sunshine State. Once again, I want to thank everybody in the Miami Heat community for treating me so well, but my work is done here. It is time for me to return home to my city and my family and once again give it my all to try and win a title for the great sports fans of Ohio." 

Colin Gawel writes stuff for Pencilstorm when there aren't any customers at his coffee shop. He plays in the band Watershed and you can read all about his interesting life in the best-selling memoir "Hitless Wonder - A Life in Minor League Rock n Roll" by Joe Oestreich. He lives in Columbus, OH.

I Went Ahead and Wrote LeBron's Return Speech for Him. by Colin G.

Lebron, I know you are busy with free agency, stocking the mini bar on the Lear jet and getting ready for the World Cup, so I thought I would do my share and knock out a "return to Cleveland" statement for your use. Takes one thing off your plate anyway. No need to thank me, it's really the least I could do. Have fun in Brazil. See ya around The Flats soon. 

 "I would like to start by thanking the Miami Heat organization, my teammates and especially the fans for making my time in South Beach so enjoyable. I gave my all and I think we enjoyed some great moments together. For this I will be forever grateful. When I came to Miami, I had never lived anywhere outside of my hometown of Akron, Ohio. I never had the college experience or a chance to experience something completely different from what I knew growing up. With the benefit of these past years, I can see know how much I have matured during my time in the Sunshine State. Once again, I want to thank everybody in the Miami Heat community for treating me so well, but my work is done here. It is time for me to return home to my city and my family and once again give it my all to try and win a title for the great sports fans of Ohio." 

This was originally part of "LeBron James Returns to Cleveland" Click here for the full story.

Colin Gawel founded Pencilstorm and can't add much more than that right now because he is at work.

Greg Bartram and Brian Phillips Have Your USA v Belgium Preview

 
Click here for previous World Cup coverage from Brian and Greg.

Colin G, 1) To these amateur eyes, Germany at times appeared to be toying with us. Are they that good, did we not play well, or am I just completely wrong?

GB) Well, both on paper and on the pitch, Germany are ranked higher, and have they better team. They played better for longer stretches, but let’s not forget that the US had several fantastic opportunities to score and simply couldn’t close the deal. The US were definitely the more ‘leggy’ team (futbol talk).

The US lost 1-0 to the second-ranked team in the entire tournament, and after sucking wind at the beginning, put together some very strong stretches.

One other thing to keep in mind, as we’ve talked about the distance travelled several times, is that only one team has won their first match after playing in Manaus, the farthest-flung stadium, and the place the US played Portugal, and Germany had a day’s more recovery than the USMNT had. How much does that make a difference? Well, Michael Bradley’s averaging nearly 8 miles run per game. An extra day’s recovery after that would seem to make a difference after that.

 BP)  I was disappointed we didn't come at them more. If Germany has a weakness it's in the back and the U.S. wasn't as interested in attacking as I had hoped we would be. Germany on the other hand can play it most any way you like. They're Germany, but they can be beaten.

2) On to the knockout round where even my ten year old son is sweating Belgium, "Oh no Dad, we have to play Belgium. They are awesome" I'm not used to hearing awesome and Belgium in the same sentence. What do they bring to the table and more importantly, what language do they speak anyway?

GB) Well, first off…either Flemish (punchlines abound), Dutch, or French.

Now then…Belgium has won all three matches so far, so on paper, they’re firing on all cylinders. For the last match, they made seven changes to the lineup…was it to rest players, was it because there are minor injuries, or was it tactical? We won’t know more until we see their lineup for the match against the USA. They do have an injury or two that may change things.

I cannot think of Belgium without remembering the Monty Python sketch “Prejudice.” It’s on YouTube, y’all…go find it.

BP) Much is being made of Belgium defeating the U.S. 4-2 in a friendly recently. Are you concerned when your NFL team gets throttled in a pre-season game? I suppose, but not that much. This is the playoffs if you will. A different animal entirely.

Belgium has a great young goalkeeper in Thimbaut Courtois and only surrendered one goal in the group stage. That said they are beat up. Captain and central defender Vincent Kompany has a bum groin and may not even be able to go. Defender Thomas Vermaelen (hamstring) is in the same boat. Anthony Vanden Borre (cracked fibula), and Laurent Ciman (abductor strain) have already been ruled out for the match. Belgium will likely have to start a midfielder or two in the back. This is great news for the U.S. With four goals in three group stage matches it's not like Belgium has lit the world on fire. The big question in my mind will be: With all the injuries in the back will they decide to go harder at the goal to get up early? We'll find out.

 
3) What does team USA need to do to win this game? Who needs to step up and what would spell trouble?

GB) Belgium’s built to be an attacking team. The US defenders will need to be as solid as they’ve been so far, and stay smart about the defensive shape. Michael Bradley needs better touches in the attacking end, because he’s had miscues that have cost shot attempts. He needs to find his game again.

Tim Howard just needs to keep being Tim Howard. That guy stands as the US MVP in my mind.

Jozy Altidore may be back for the US, which will make the tactical lineup interesting. Do you put him up top to start, or stay with similar starters to the last few matches? Do you save him for a late sub if needed to be sure he’s fresh, and give him a tired Belgian defense to go after? I don’t think you start him, because if he’s comeback a bit too soon, you risk using a substitution too early (again).

BP) Attack! An early goal was everything in the Ghana match. We need to force Belgium to come out of their shell a bit. We can't "park the bus" and expect to snipe an odd goal on the counter. The U.S. must take the game to them. 

I'm sounding like a broken record here, but midfielder Michael Bradley has to play a whole lot better. The sloppy touches have to stop. The game must flow crispy through him on the attack. It would be nice to at least be able to bring striker Jozy Altadore (hamstring) off the bench. I doubt he has enough to start them game. 

 
4) As tough as our group was, it seems any wins from here out would be icing on the cake. Is that a fair assumption or is this team equipped to make a deeper run? What is a realistic best case scenario? 

GB) Pretty clearly, the US beat a Ghana side that outplayed them. They’ve made believers out of themselves and others. Let’s not forget that an awful lot of quality nations are done…Spain and Italy come to mind. Once you’re in the round of 16, anything’s possible.

BP) Many are bothered by only one win in group stage, but calling it the group of death was not hyperbole. The U.S. vanquished their Cup Kryptonite in Ghana, played a hell of a game against Portugal, and it's not like Germany throttled the us. There are many positives. I won't be shocked if we beat Belgium. I won't be shocked if we don't. I like going into a match feeling like the U.S. can make things happen, rather than hoping for luck. The United State's reward should they beat Belgium is a likely quarter final against Argentina. That's probably where it ends.
 
5) If my son bit somebody during a sporting event I wouldn't complain about the length of his suspension.  I thought that sort of behavior get ironed out in pre-school. Should the entire country of Urugruay be put in "time-out" until the World Cup is complete or is the penalty too harsh?

GB) Uruguay are built around Suarez. His on-field talent is undeniable…

…but so is the fact that there’s a mis-wired switch somewhere in that futbol noggin of his. How you do that after already having been suspended twice for it, and do that on the biggest stage in the game is beyond me. I think it’s a crime that nothing was done immediately. Italy gets scored on a minute later, but Uruguay should have been down to 10 players. Uruguay shouldn’t be in the round of 16, so my new 3rd favorite team (behind the US and Costa Rica) is Whoever Plays Uruguay.

Just a few interesting figures in closing…USA-Germany ranked higher online viewing that any Super Bowl Ever. Would it be different if the Super Bowl were played on a Thursday at noon? Of course, but nevertheless, that’s a pretty big number. The network broadcast of USA-Portugal rated higher than any game in the World Series.

The task for US Soccer and MLS now is to find a way to keep some of that momentum for the league here.

BP) The penalty fit the crime. Suarez has been nailed for biting twice before. He likely needs intense psychotherapy.