Baver's Buckeye Bag 10/29/2014 Post-Happy Valley Thoughts

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Post-Happy Valley Thoughts

The number one complaint I have heard from Ohio State fans after the Penn State game is that the play-calling was way too conservative.  Well, with 13:24 to go in the game, Ohio State led 17-7 and had just gotten the ball.  The OSU defense had given up only 94 yards and Penn State’s offense had not scored.  The Nits were averaging 8.5 yards per drive at that point…..not 8.5 yards per play….8.5 yards “per drive.”  I turned to my buddy in Beaver Stadium and said, “Ohio State will button it up the rest of the way; they can’t lose this game without turning the ball over and giving Penn State momentum.”  So, on first down, with JT Barrett struggling, the OSU coaches elected to throw the ball over the middle, and the ball was picked off.  Eight plays later, Penn State was in the end zone cutting the lead to 17-14, and Penn State had major momentum. The play call on Barrett’s pick was anything but conservative and it damn near cost the Buckeyes the game.

I usually don’t single out individual plays and play the hindsight game, but I will in this case.  You absolutely cannot throw the ball over the middle on first down…at that point in the game…with the Buckeye defense dominating like it was…and with JT Barrett struggling like he was. In my mind, the overall play-calling wasn’t conservative enough.  There is no way Penn State should have battled back to tie that game at 17-17. The stadium, with the night game white-out, was chaos….as it always is in Beaver Stadium.  It wasn’t all that surprising to see the momentum completely shift after Barrett’s second INT.  I also shook my head when Ohio State ran out of the wildcat four times on a third quarter drive, while not running out of that formation at any other point in the evening (that I can recall).  What gives?  Not a conservative philosophy in my mind.

The Ohio State coaching staff is, at worst, one of the top five staffs in the country.  I guess that is why I was surprised at some of their calls.  I wasn’t surprised to see: (A) a close game, (B) JT Barrett struggle in that venue, and (C) PSU get the OSU offense out of sync after the Lions had the extra week to prepare for Ohio State.  I mentioned these concerns in last week’s blog and the concerns ended up being valid.

As for the two huge gaffes by the officials that helped Ohio State score 10 points that they maybe should not have scored….I don’t think the correct calls would have changed the outcome of the game.  As critical as I am about the coaches play-calling that led to Barrett’s second INT, Urban Meyer almost always gets it done in crunch time.  There is a reason why he is 7-0 in overtime games in his head coaching career. Nonetheless, I’d be pretty ticked off with the blown calls if I were a Penn State fan. 

Does the Penn State game change the outlook of the season?

So, the consensus opinion I am now hearing is: Ohio State is in big trouble in East Lansing on November 8th.  While this might be the case, the reality check in Happy Valley and the experience of playing in that environment helps this Buckeye team immensely.  After pounding Kent State, Cincy, Maryland, and Rutgers, the Ohio State players needed a dose of reality.  JT Barrett is still a freshman and he showed that for much of the night, Saturday.  The OSU coaches pulled this team together after the Va Tech debacle and will have this team ready to go against Sparty. And they will have to, or this team will indeed be in big trouble.

The college football playoff committee initial rankings?  About what I expected.  I still believe the Buckeyes are in the playoff if they win out. Sportsbook.com’s updated odds to win the national championship have Michigan State as the 4th favorite (7 ½ to 1 odds against winning the national championship) and Ohio State as the 8th favorite (9 to 1).  So, the oddsmakers seem to be thinking the same.  And I’ll take the opinions of the oddsmakers over those of the talking heads any day of the week.

Next up: Illinois.

The Buckeyes can name their score against Illinois, but will they?  I honestly see the OSU coaches taking a good amount of time this week to gear up for Michigan State, despite the coach-speak you will hear publicly.  They also have to protect JT Barrett’s sprained knee, and really shouldn’t call Barrett’s number on a designed run at any point against Illinois.  With Sparty on deck and Barrett ailing, my first thought was that OSU would have trouble covering the 28 point spread.  But the more I look at it, I see a very bad Illinois team despite their upset of Minnesota this past weekend.  And Urban will probably continue to keep his foot on the gas well into the 4th quarter, after seeing OSU come in at #16 in the initial playoff committee poll.   The call: Ohio State 45 Illinois 10.

Baver's Picks, A Visit to Happy Valley and Colin's CFG Questions

Follow Baver on his trip to Happy Valley. Twitter: @baverbuckeyebag

I  noticed in this week's Buckeye Bag that you don't like the Buckeyes to cover at Penn State. You haven't missed a Buckeye pick this year. What is your level of confidence in this one?

Not highly confident, but I think Penn State is the play here (against the spread).  When you are rolling, at some point you usually get a reality check….and I just see this week being that reality check.  The extra week of prep (after a bye week) for a James Franklin coached team is the big factor for me.  Hope I’m wrong, as I obviously want the Bucks to keep rolling.  I do think the Bucks come away with the win and ultimately head to East Lansing with a 7-1 record two weeks from now.  And if the Bucks get the Nits down a few scores early, they may steam-roll them, like the last four opponents.  After I said Raekwon McMillan was (basically) “playing like a freshman,” his play in the Rutgers game may be the turning point that really gets him going.  Something tells me he plays a big roll Saturday night, but I am still worried about this game, and still say take Penn State and the points.  The noise will be tough for first-year starter JT Barrett to deal with.

Give us an update on your picks to date and what games & lines jump out at you this week?

I’m 13-8 ATS, hitting 11 of the last 15, and 5-0-1 ATS in Buckeye games.  There is little I like this week, and the spreads I have been looking at haven’t moved much.  Vegas does a better job establishing the initial game week lines as the season goes on.  But, to stick with how I’ve been doing this, I will pick three games.  I am going to go against both Ole Miss and Mississippi State, both of whom have huge targets on their chests now, and both of whom have tough road games.  I like Kentucky getting the 13 1/2 at home against Messy State and I like LSU, at home, at night, getting 3 ½ against the Rebels.  With Kentucky and 2nd year head coach Mark Stoops (5-2 ATS this year), the future is bright; the Wildcats keep this one close.  LSU has covered back to back games and is showing signs of life.  Lastly, I think UCLA will start to pull things together here in the 2nd half of the year; Jim Mora will get UCLA back in the top 10.  I like the Bruins laying 13 ½ at Colorado.

Notre Dame sure looked like the real deal last week. Is this good news for the perception of Midwest football or a threat to future OSU dominance of the region?

Notre Dame is indeed a good football team and I think they still have a shot at the playoff.  But, their remaining schedule is brutal: with road trips to Navy, Arizona State and USC, and home stints against Northwestern and Louisville.  It was the right (pass interference) call at the end of the Fla State – Notre Dame game, but give the Irish credit for coming that close to upsetting the ‘Noles in Tallahassee.  Are the Irish a threat to Ohio State’s dominance in the Midwest?  I’d say, “somewhat.”

It sure looks like MSU is going to kick the unholy hell out of Michigan this weekend. Is it just that simple?

Yes.

Speaking of getting the unholy hell kicked out of you, what happened to Texas A & M last week and what team (s) are the best in the SEC?

Texas A&M is reeling big time.  And that was a Bama team that had not been playing well that spanked them.  I just think A&M is out of gas, mentally.  I still think Bama is the class of the SEC, followed closely by Auburn, who is followed closely by Georgia, who is followed closely by Messy State and Ole Miss.  The conference is very much up for grabs.  Big Ten fans are probably going to disagree wholeheartedly, but I think you have to put the SEC West champ in the playoff, regardless of how many losses they have and regardless of whether or not they beat Georgia in the SEC title game.

Back to the Penn State game….did I hear you were headed to Happy Valley?

Yes indeed….will try to even my record out at 1-1 in trips there.  The last time I was there?  Uhh….the last time Ohio State lost there, in 2005.  The students were a little hostile to us on that trip.  That was the first “white out” that I remember…it’s quite imposing.  The lion growl over the speakers (in person) is about as unbearable as it gets….probably how OSU haters view our OH-IO back and forth.  Have a friend, who is a professor at PSU, hosting a tailgate with his normal crew as well as our obnoxious bunch from C-bus.  Drinks will be flowing early Saturday.  Looking like ideal weather….knock on wood.  Will do my best to bring home a “W.”

Baver's Buckeye Bag 10/21/14 - OSU vs Penn State

Baver’s Buckeye Bag 10/21/14

Some random thoughts/comments on the Buckeyes after Rutgers & after 6 games:

--It’s a slippery slope with the issue of playing starters in the 4th quarter when you are up 5+ TD’s.  Meyer said backup O-linemen Joel Hale and Marcelys Jones were unable to go, which was why Jacoby Boren was in the game late before he left with an injury.  As for Barrett still quarterbacking a drive in the 4th quarter when the Bucks led 56-17, Meyer said he wanted more reps for his first-year starting QB.  What Meyer didn’t mention was the issue with OSU getting no respect in the polls, which is probably another reason for not cleaning the bench earlier.  (More on the polls in a second.)  If “style points” are part of it, I don’t think it really matters whether the Bucks beat a team like Rutgers by 30 points or by 50.  I still say, “just keep winning” and everything else will take care of itself.  I think the potential harm of leaving your starters in late during blowouts exceeds the potential good.

--It’s somewhat puzzling as to why Dontre Wilson hasn’t broken more plays; I thought Dontre would be taking more would-be moderate gains to the house this year.  From C-deck Saturday, I watched Wilson on a 12-yard run around the right end.  I shook my head, trying to think of a former Buckeye that would have gotten to the edge that quickly, and couldn’t come up with anyone.  But, why can’t Wilson break the big one on running plays, after catches, or on returns?  Someone told me they question Wilson’s top end speed, but I think the guy just makes too many wrong decisions with running lanes, especially on kickoff returns.  Nonetheless, Dontre Wilson is still a guy that needs to be heavenly involved in the Buckeye offense.

--The polls?  There is way too much griping by Buckeye fans.  The schedule is what it is – it’s been laughable so far and the Buckeyes lost at home, at night, to what is now a 3-loss Va Tech team.  How else do you rank teams besides awarding quality wins and punishing bad losses?  The good news is….in the long run, I don’t think it will matter – if the Bucks win out, they will be in the playoff.

--I don’t think Ohio State should look past this Penn State team, but the Michigan State game is now just two and a half weeks away.  How good is this Buckeye team?  We will know on November 8th.  I mentioned that beating Rutgers by 30 or by 50 doesn’t matter much in terms of polls.  It also doesn’t matter much in terms of figuring out “how good you really are.”  We will soon find out.

--This Buckeye team cannot afford to lose another DE.  With the loss of Spence for the season (likely), that left three DE’s that played in games prior to 2014.  One of them, Rashad Frazier, was injured in the Rutgers game.  As of Tuesday morning, the depth of Frazier’s injury had not been disclosed.  This doesn’t matter so much against teams like Rutgers and Maryland, but it will against Michigan State and a possible appearance in the B10 title game, followed by the bowl game.  True frosh Jalyn Holmes looks good, and is going to need to keep progressing with increased playing time likely in his future.

The matchup Saturday against Penn State:

I am in the minority here among Buckeye fans, but I fully expect Penn State to be ready to play Saturday night, and think the game will be close.  Penn State is a well coached team that is coming off a bye, and I’m always leery about giving good coaches an extra week to prepare for Ohio State’s rhythm offense.

Penn State’s rush defense is 1st nationally, giving up only 61 yards per game on the ground.  Their pass defense has been solid as well, ranking 22nd in the country in pass efficiency defense.  This will be freshman QB JT Barrett’s first game in a truly hostile environment, and I expect the PSU defense to take Ohio State’s offense out of their rhythm at times Saturday night.  The Buckeyes will need to take some pressure off JT Barrett, with this being the first truly tough venue/atmosphere he has played in: Ezekiel Elliott could help relieve some of that pressure. 

On the plus side for Ohio State, PSU simply does not have the talent to match up with OSU.  On offense, Penn State is having real problems running the football, which doesn’t bode well against Ohio State’s D-line.  The Penn State O-line will have to play better, and the PSU team as a whole will need to ride some emotion to upset Ohio State.

I think the game will be tight for at least two and a half quarters, with the Buckeyes doing enough late to pull out the “W.”  Prediction: Ohio State 31, Penn State 23.

Baver's College Football Picks, Dead Schembechlers Rumors and Colin's Questions.

--- So give those gambling types an update on your picks to date and who you like this week?

I’m 11-7 against the spread with your Q&A picks, hitting 9 of the last 12, and I’m 4-0-1 on the Ohio State picks (which sometimes double as my favorite picks in your Q&A here).  I will go with the Buckeyes, again.  As I mentioned in the Buckeye Bag, I don’t think any Big Ten defense outside of Michigan State can stop this Buckeye offense right now, and I think Urban will want to impress the playoff committee; I like the Bucks laying the 19.5.  Next, I will go against the Noles again; both top 25 opponents they played this year hung tight and I think Notre Dame will as well.  Take the Domers +12.  And I like Oklahoma State getting 9 against TCU.  I can’t see how TCU is in the right mindset after the colossal collapse in the last 10 minutes of last week’s Baylor game.  And this is a well coached OSU Lite team; Gundy is 63-39-4 against the spread since the start of the 2006 season – that’s sick. 

---- Storm clouds are gathering over Tallahassee. Last Sunday the New York Times reported the Feds are investigating the local police for covering up FSU student athlete sexual assaults and this week turns out Jameis Winston signed a bunch of swag for the same guy who paid Gurley. The smoke is getting pretty thick, does a fire break out and ruin Winston's season?

Winston’s rant while standing on a table in the student union, making derogatory statements toward women, was incredibly stupid.  But last I checked, there is no law against being stupid and against free speech.  Yet, he was still suspended for a game.  There have been no rape charges filed against him and there is no concrete evidence that he accepted money for autographs.  You have the grocery store theft that happened during baseball season, in which he took a three-game suspension from the ‘Nole baseball coach.  But based on the evidence in the rape and autograph cases, or lack of which, I don’t know how you suspend him again.  If more evidence comes to light, that obviously changes things.  And don’t get me wrong…the guy is scum of the earth. 

--- Who is still alive for the four team playoff?

You have 12 teams battling for four spots, and Ohio State and Sparty are definitely two of them.  The others (in no particular order) are: Florida St, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Miss St, Georgia, Oklahoma, Baylor, Oregon and Notre Dame.  I’d be surprised if a team outside of that pool gets in.  Most of the teams in that pool will have two or more losses by the end of conference championship Saturday, and there is a distinct possibility that the winner of the OSU-Sparty game will have only one loss.  We shall see…. it’s wide open and I would bet money that a one-loss OSU or Sparty team gets in.  I wouldn’t have said that a few weeks ago.

---- With all the attention on the blowtorch focused squarely on Brady Hoke's ass, how warm in Bo Pelini's seat these days?

Let’s wait to see what the Huskers do against Northwestern Saturday.  I have a feeling NW may beat them which will firmly put Pelini on the hot seat.

---- Just when it seemed Michigan's season couldn't get worse, it looks like the Dead Schembechlers might be performing this year. This is an ominous sign for Brady Hoke as this usually means a coach is about to get fired (or die). 

I was stubborn…it took me awhile to get on the “Hoke is gone” bandwagon, but I’m on it now.  Hoke needs to pull a small miracle to keep his job.  I think the Shane Morris concussion thing was blown out of proportion, but the bad press is what it is….it’s certainly adding to the other things that will cost Hoke his job, i.e. his atrocious W-L record, UM’s drastically falling attendance numbers, the current donut shortage in Ann Arbor, etc.

Baver's Buckeye Bag 10/15/14 OSU vs Rutgers

Baver’s Buckeye Bag 10/15/14

Click here for previous Baver story.

Some random thoughts/comments on the Buckeyes:

--I did my share of bitching about the Buckeye defense during the Maryland game, but looking at the end result, it was a big improvement over the effort against Cincinnati.  Progress is being made.

-The Virginia Tech & Maryland games saw JT Barrett sacked 11 times (in total).  Barrett was only sacked twice in the other three OSU games (combined).  Rutgers is 3rd nationally in team sacks per game (4.0/gm), so I would think that protecting Barrett is a point of emphasis that the Buckeye coaches are hammering home this week.

--It seems like every Buckeye fan and his brother and sister has wanted to completely shelve Curtis Grant for Raekwon McMillan, but there is something to be said for experience.  McMillan has played a lot over the past two games, but hasn’t lit the world on fire.  It seems to me that the better results out of the Mike position have come when Grant has been in there.  But, McMillan will eventually get there.

--Outside of Michigan State and November weather, it’s hard to see much else on the horizon that can slow down a Buckeye offense that has made huge strides since early September.  The O-line coming together and Barrett’s ability to go through his progressions make it very difficult for a Big Ten defense to slow down this Ohio State offense right now.

--If Joey Bosa can stay healthy, he may very well leave Ohio State as the best DE ever to play here….even if/when he skips his senior year.  It’s sick to think what he would be doing if Noah Spence was on the other end of the D-line.  Offenses have had to spend additional resources keeping Bosa out of the backfield, and Bosa is still blowing up everything.

--This seemed improbable a month ago, but “winning out” likely puts the Buckeyes in the 4-team playoff.  There is no dominant team this year, and the top teams in the SEC, Pac 12 and Big 12 are going to continue to beat one another up.  And if you’ve watched Michigan State much this year, you have probably seen that this is not the Sparty team that Mark Dantonio had a year ago.  If the Buckeyes continue to progress like they have been and stay relatively healthy, I think the worst case scenario is that the November 8th OSU-MSU game in East Lansing will be a toss-up.

The matchup Saturday against Rutgers:

Rutgers is playing pretty good football right now.  They are 5-1, with their only loss being a 3-point loss to Penn State.  QB Gary Nova threw five picks in that loss, but has since put things together, completing 64% of his passes for 845 yards, with a 7-1 TD-INT ratio over his last three games.  Rutgers beat Navy in Annapolis, a place where Navy doesn’t lose often.  Their victory over Washington State on the road to open the season was a nice win for Kyle Flood, who is now in his 3rd year since taking over for Greg Schiano.  And I mentioned above that Rutgers has had good success getting to opposing QB’s this season.

On the down sign, Rutgers lost tailback Paul James (torn ACL) in the Navy game, and that was a big loss.  New starter Desmond Peoples is a big downgrade at TB.  Also, Rutgers has not played a team with Ohio State-type talent in recent memory.  They were in tight games against Penn State and Michigan, but the Buckeye offense has too many weapons for the Rutgers defense to slow down.  As for the Buckeye D, we know it can be flaky at times; so, the Rutgers offense may have some success Saturday.  The one thing, however, that this Buckeye defense has been able to do is make big plays, and I expect them to make more big plays Saturday. 

Ohio State needs to avoid looking ahead.  If the Bucks do look past Rutgers, this is a good enough Scarlet Knight team to possibly hang around Saturday.  If the Buckeyes are focused, they should win this one by 3 TD’s-plus and head to Happy Valley with a 5-1 record.  Prediction: Ohio State 45 Rutgers 20.

Baver's College Football Picks and Colin's Questions.

Before we get started you have been hot picking games all year, are there any games/lines this week that really jump out at you?

I liked Georgia laying three to Missou before the Todd Gurley suspension, but scratch that.  I like TCU getting 8 ½ at Baylor.  Baylor’s offense could not get in gear against Texas last week and face a tougher defense this week against TCU.  I think this game will be tight.  Too many points for Florida State, laying 23 ½ on the road at Syracuse; I like the ‘Cuse.  Bad spot for FSU with Notre Dame on deck.  I still think the Noles are the best team in the land if they play to their potential, but they still haven’t put it all together yet.  And I like Alabama (-9) to bounce back and beat Arkansas soundly.  Not a good matchup at all for Arkansas and their power running game – that’s not the way you beat the Tide.

What is your record against the spread so far this year?

I am 9-6 when responding to your weekly “who do you like” question.  I started 2-4, but have hit 7 of the last 9.  On the Buckeye games, I predicted a 17-point win over Cincy (in the middle of game-week, when the Bucks were around a 15-point favorite), but the line closed at 17.  So, if you view that as me predicting a “push” against Cincy, I am 4-0-1 on the Buckeye games.  I correctly had the Bucks covering against Navy, Kent State and Maryland, and had Va Tech covering against the Bucks. 

Ok, the Buckeyes are off again, which blows. Michigan is playing and they blow too, how bad is Penn State to be dogs to the Wolverines this weekend?

Penn State is a shadow of what they used to be; other than Christian Hackenburg, their talent is down. With the sanctions being lightened and with the James Franklin hire, Penn State should start to pick up the pace in the next few years.  Michigan shouldn’t be as bad as they are, but they are reeling, and Brady Hoke hasn’t a clue on how to fix things.  I would probably have Penn State as a slight favorite over Michigan in this game.  I think this one will be tight, like both of these team’s games against Rutgers….which is a sad statement.

After all the upsets last weekend, does a team from the Big Ten have a shot to make the new four team playoff? If you had to predict the final four today, who would it be?

Nationally, I don’t expect to see any team go undefeated in the regular season, and there will be some very good teams that end up with two losses.  If that is the case, Ohio State and Sparty are definitely still alive.  The winner of their November 8th matchup will also need to win the rest of their games, including the Big Ten championship, and look impressive doing so.  I tend to think the Pac 12 and Big Twelve teams beat each other up, making it hard for a school from each conference to make the playoff.  And I think the SEC gets two teams in the playoff regardless.  I will go with Florida State, Georgia, Auburn and Michigan State as the four playoff teams, but with all the parity this year, it wouldn’t surprise me to see none of those teams make it.

Which running back should be more upset: Amir Abdullah being held to just 49 yards against MSU or Melvin Gordon running for over 250 and the Badgers still lose? 

I think I am ticked off more if I am Melvin Gordon, who Wisconsin should have run more.  Not sure why the Badger coaches decided to throw the ball 29 times, with an anemic passing offense and an elite running game; it makes no sense.  I am not all that surprised that the Sparty defense held Abdullah in check; they aimed to make him a non-factor in the game, and that’s exactly what happened.

Let's wrap up with at least one Buckeye question. Which player on offense and defense do you now think is primed for a breakout year that you didn't four games ago?

On offense, it’s a no-brainer for me – JT Barrett.  I have never seen a first-year starting QB at OSU “get it” so quickly.  He lacks arm strength, but you can get away with that at this level…just ask former Heisman winner Danny Wuerfell.  But other than that, Barrett brings everything else to the table.  He’s already about to the point where he is surpassing Braxton Miller as a decision maker…this comparing Barrett the freshman to Miller the junior.  Barrett is doing a beautiful job running the option and for a kid that has played only five games, he is doing an unbelievable job getting through his progressions and finding the “right” receiver.  With Barrett raising his level of play the way he has, the final four is (I think) surprisingly in play for Ohio State. 

On defense, I have nobody – nothing really that wasn’t expected.  I guess if I have to pick someone, I will say Darron Lee, but you are seeing expected growing pains with him.  On the other hand, I think you can see what kind of talent he has, and I think he will be a star before leaving Ohio State.  Lee is a great athlete that is still learning the position…when he does learn it…look out.