Hot Stove Chatter. Reds and Indians. by Brian Phillips

Reds fans should be concerned by the complete lack of movement on the offensive front after last season's anemic output, and their starting staff is now worse with the exits of Mat Latos to Miami and Alfredo Simon to Detroit. 

The idea of trading Simon in and of itself isn't bad. 2014 was a high water mark without question for the journeyman. What they got in return though is a piddling young shortshop in Eugenio Suarez and underwelming A-ball pitcher Jonathan Crawford. 

The 23 year old Suarez appeared in 85 games for the big club last season and in 277 plate appearances whiffed almost 25% of the time. In 2012 Suarez was a top 15 prospect for Detroit, but their list was pretty weak that season. (Nick Castellanos was #1, and I don't see a future star there.) Suarez was rated then as a decent glove guy with a utility infielder ceiling. Not a lot to get excited about there.

Crawford was drafted in the first round by the Tigers in 2013. The 23 year old from The University of Florida pitched in A ball last year and posted decent numbers, but his walk and strike out rates at that low level indicate a cloudy future. 

The Latos deal looks like a salary dump to me. Sure there are concerns over health, but isn't that true of any pitcher (see Cueto)? In return the Marlins shipped a nice catching prospect in Chad Wallach and a mediocre rightie named Anthony Desclafani.  

The just turned 23 Wallach was a fifth round pick in 2013 out of baseball factory Cal-State Fullerton. He logged a walk rate in A ball last year that can only be described as Billy Beane porn. 62 walks to 46 k's is impressive at any level. He doesn't display any power to speak of, but scouts love his defense. Someday the Reds can trade him to Oakland.

Desclafani is on his third organization having arrived in Miami as part of that infamous trade with the Blue Jays back in 2013. He started five games for the Marlins last season, but scouts profile him out of the bullpen. In the Arizona Fall League just last month the clipboards were still looking for a supposed developing change up. Without that he's just another fastball/slider guy topping out at 91/94 with the heater. In a 33 inning big league sample last year Desclafani showed more fly ball tilt than you'd like for a guy going into Great American, and he gave up too much hard contact. He'll compete for a rotation job in the spring, but don't hold your breath.

Bottom Line? The Reds are worse off than they were when they packed up their gear in late September. Homer Bailey underwent surgery in September, and you just hold your breath with Cueto's durability long term. You have to be concerned as a Reds fan.

The Indians off season has been pretty simple by comparison. The Indians acquired slugging OF/1B Brandon Moss from the A's in exchange for AA second baseman Joey Wendle on December 8th. The Tribe are loaded with young middle infielders so giving up Wendle isn't a big deal. 

Brandon Moss is Nick Swisher with more pop. Both hit righties better than lefties though Swish is a switch hitter. I'm sure they're both fun to drink beer with so there's that. Moss is going to strike out a ton, hit 25 or so home runs and drive you nuts when he goes 0 for a week here and there. 

And on Tuesday the Indians signed veteran starter Gavin Floyd to a one year 4 million dollar deal. Floyd's only season in Atlanta last year was shortened by injury. You can't really call him an innings eater as he failed to reach 200 in his final four years with the White Sox. The money is right though and if they can give him to the ball 30 times in 2015 they'll look at him as a bargain. Floyd essentially replaces the departed Justin Masterson in the rotation. Masterson was always a bit hard to figure anyway.

The Tribe could be pretty good this year if they get bounce backs from Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana and Swisher. All had disappointing seasons and yet the Indians hung around to the end. 

Brian Phillips is the afternoon jock at the legendary Indie radio blowtorch WWCD102.5. He knows a thing or two about a thing or two. 

TCU Nerds Better Prep for a Course in Football Economics 101. OSU Wins and Gets In by Colin Gawel

IF, Ohio State defeats Wisconsin in a semi-impressive fashion tonight at the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis, the Buckeyes will make the four-team college football playoff and Horned Frogs will be relegated to a - ahem - "less visible" bowl appearance. You heard me. If everybody wins out, the Buckeyes slide into the last spot and FSU jumps to #3.

"But, TCU is is currently number 3? And they killed Iowa State today? And their strength of schedule…"

Yeah, yeah, numbers, numbers, eye test, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah…..

Yeah, I've got a a number for you: 261,587- TCU total football attendance.

Texas Christian University coached by good old "what's his name," featuring "I've never heard of him" and "who is that guy?" only has an enrollment of 8,200 students who seem more inclined to study than to attend football games. In fact, the lack of fan support has been so noticeable that the media has been covering it. Check this out  or  this picture  or even this

In contrast, The Ohio State University football machine drew over 740,000 fans in the same season. Almost a HALF MILLION more butts in the seats. And those tickets require a much more serious financial commitment. Face value for the 2014 Michigan game was $150 for a single ducat. And that was the worst seat in the house. 

Meanwhile, back wherever TCU plays, you can purchase a SEASON TICKET for $250. That's right, every game for a grand total of just $250. And that is the "Championship Level" which I assume means you aren't jammed into the end zone bleachers.

Let's cut to the chase. The reason ESPN and the College Football powers got rid of that pesky computer ranking and put humans back in charge is because computers don't factor in the most important number of all: the numbers that starts with a dollar sign. The next time big college football turns down big money it will be the first time. In a long time. There is just no way on God's Green Earth that if OSU is a viable candidate it will be left out of the first ever final-four football playoff. The Bucks have too many fans, too famous of a coach and it's too important to keep all those Midwestern TV sets tuned into the games to keep advertisers happy that their money was well spent.

And with the possibility of a team winning and playing another travel game just one week later for all the marbles, I can only imagine the various Bowl committees will be pressing for schools with the biggest and most dedicated fan bases to fill all those seats and purchase all those plane tickets. TCU would be a huge financial drag on this, the very first season of the new four team playoff. 

There has been a lot of chatter about who comprises the playoff selection committee and how they will avoid a conflict of interest situation among the various conferences and teams. However, the most important committee members have not been mentioned up to this point. They have no conflict of interest. They are the men behind the curtain and they only show up at the very end of the very last selection meeting. It is the ESPN/ABC head of programming and the director of advertising sales. They will walk in, ask to look at the playoff  list, take out a red marker and make a slash through TCU and circle OSU with a smiley face next to it.  

Mark it down. If the Buckeyes win tonight and look decent doing it the Buckeyes will be playing on New Year's Day. - Colin Gawel

Colin Gawel created Pencilstorm at Colin's Coffee, plays in the band Watershed and wrote the story "Lebron James Will Return to Cleveland" back in June 2013. So doubt him at your own risk.

Dead Schembechlers Tickets Going Fast, Click Here For Tickets Or Risk Being a Shutout of the Hate Michigan Rally (loser)

Jeff Hassler may not approve of their language but I can tell you that I have seen these guys live a number of times and there is no place on Earth better to be the night before the OSU v Michigan game. In fact, if you consider yourself a Buckeye Football fan and haven't seen the Dead Schembechlers play, then you really aren't a very big Buckeye football fan. 

Be warned, the show isn't for the faint of heart and unless you want your kid's ears ringing w F- Bombs and hair matted with Wolverine blood, this is a 21 and up show. Ace of Cups Friday November 28th. Doors 6pm, show at 8pm sharp.  Tickets WILL SELLOUT IN ADVANCE so I wouldn't waste time messing around. @baverbuckeyebag

Click Here For Dead Schembechlers Tickets!!

Easy Money! Baver now 20-11-1 on CFB Picks.This Week's Picks and Colin's Questions OSU v MSU

Follow @baverbuckeyebag and click here for Baver Buckeye Bag  OSU v MSU

1) Give me an update on your picks so far and what lines do you find interesting this week?

Overall picks on the year, combining the OSU picks with the weekly plays of the week, I am 20-11-1 against the spread (7-0-1 picking the Ohio State games ATS).  I like Virginia getting 20 against Florida State.  Coming off the big comeback win over Louisville on the road, I think the Noles get complacent again.  And Virginia has a stingy defense.  I’ll go with another dog and advise taking Notre Dame getting the 2 ½ at Arizona State.  I tend to think Notre Dame wins a tight game outright.  And despite the tough remaining schedule, I think Notre Dame may win all four of their remaining games and end up in the playoff.  Finally, I like Oregon laying 8 at Utah, despite what appears to be a bad spot for the Ducks coming off their spanking of Stanford.  Not a great spot for Utah either, after the tough OT loss at Arizona State.  And I think Oregon, as a team, is starting to pull together nicely.

2) Wow. This is a big game. Lose and the best we can hope for is third in the frigging Big Ten. Yuk. Can you recall a more important Buckeye conference game with still so much football to be played?

 Wrong or right, lose this game, and the Buckeyes look like a fraud to those CFB fans outside of Ohio.  I mean, sooner or later, Urban Meyer has to beat a top team.  And like you said….lose this game and for all intents and purposes, the Bucks are at best #3 in the Big Ten.  And come 2015, four Big Ten Championship games will then be in the books, of which Ohio State will have won none of.  So, no….I can’t recall another game that means so much, three games prior to the Michigan game.

3)This same Buckeye team had trouble scoring against MSU just 11 months ago with the two time Big Ten MVP at QB and Carlos Hyde pounding the rock behind our best O line in decades. I'm trying to imagine how on Earth we are going to score any points let alone enough to win. Help me out.
 
I guess one counter argument is that Michigan State’s defense appears to be a notch below where they were a year ago, which offsets some of OSU’s offensive downgrade.  But your points are very much valid.  I tend to think the Buckeye defense and/or special teams are going to have to score in order for Ohio State to win this game.  And the Buckeye defense is going to have to play far better than they did in last year’s Big Ten Championship game.  They simply cannot give up 30+ points again.

4) You recently returned from the game in Happy Valley. How did that insane environment help prepare this team for what lies ahead at East Lansing? How tough of a venue is Spartan Stadium?
 
It won’t be as crazy as Happy Valley – not sure any venue is.  I have been to Spartan Stadium twice; both were beat downs, with OSU winning 38-7 in 2006 and 45-7 in 2008.  But Michigan State is such a better program now and that stadium will be rocking Saturday night.  I think the craziness in Beaver Stadium two weeks ago will indeed help the Buckeyes deal with the Sparty crowd tomorrow night.

5) Doesn't the case of MSU once again prove the advantage of having a tough schedule a myth? Instead of losing to Oregon on the road, what if Sparty had traveled to say, Central Florida and come into this game undefeated? Surely they would be top six in the country and in much better shape for the playoff. Why bother to schedule such tough games?
 
I guess I’ll go back to what I keep harping on….just win (from here on out), and things will take care of themselves.  I think there is a 90%-plus chance that the winner of Ohio State – Michigan State will be in the CFB playoff if they win their other games as well (which is not a given).  Therefore, I don’t think the Oregon loss hurt Sparty that bad.  But I see where you are coming from.  In some cases, scheduling the big dog can do more harm than good.

Baver's Buckeye Bag 10/29/2014 Post-Happy Valley Thoughts

Follow Baver on Twitter @baverbuckeyebag 

Post-Happy Valley Thoughts

The number one complaint I have heard from Ohio State fans after the Penn State game is that the play-calling was way too conservative.  Well, with 13:24 to go in the game, Ohio State led 17-7 and had just gotten the ball.  The OSU defense had given up only 94 yards and Penn State’s offense had not scored.  The Nits were averaging 8.5 yards per drive at that point…..not 8.5 yards per play….8.5 yards “per drive.”  I turned to my buddy in Beaver Stadium and said, “Ohio State will button it up the rest of the way; they can’t lose this game without turning the ball over and giving Penn State momentum.”  So, on first down, with JT Barrett struggling, the OSU coaches elected to throw the ball over the middle, and the ball was picked off.  Eight plays later, Penn State was in the end zone cutting the lead to 17-14, and Penn State had major momentum. The play call on Barrett’s pick was anything but conservative and it damn near cost the Buckeyes the game.

I usually don’t single out individual plays and play the hindsight game, but I will in this case.  You absolutely cannot throw the ball over the middle on first down…at that point in the game…with the Buckeye defense dominating like it was…and with JT Barrett struggling like he was. In my mind, the overall play-calling wasn’t conservative enough.  There is no way Penn State should have battled back to tie that game at 17-17. The stadium, with the night game white-out, was chaos….as it always is in Beaver Stadium.  It wasn’t all that surprising to see the momentum completely shift after Barrett’s second INT.  I also shook my head when Ohio State ran out of the wildcat four times on a third quarter drive, while not running out of that formation at any other point in the evening (that I can recall).  What gives?  Not a conservative philosophy in my mind.

The Ohio State coaching staff is, at worst, one of the top five staffs in the country.  I guess that is why I was surprised at some of their calls.  I wasn’t surprised to see: (A) a close game, (B) JT Barrett struggle in that venue, and (C) PSU get the OSU offense out of sync after the Lions had the extra week to prepare for Ohio State.  I mentioned these concerns in last week’s blog and the concerns ended up being valid.

As for the two huge gaffes by the officials that helped Ohio State score 10 points that they maybe should not have scored….I don’t think the correct calls would have changed the outcome of the game.  As critical as I am about the coaches play-calling that led to Barrett’s second INT, Urban Meyer almost always gets it done in crunch time.  There is a reason why he is 7-0 in overtime games in his head coaching career. Nonetheless, I’d be pretty ticked off with the blown calls if I were a Penn State fan. 

Does the Penn State game change the outlook of the season?

So, the consensus opinion I am now hearing is: Ohio State is in big trouble in East Lansing on November 8th.  While this might be the case, the reality check in Happy Valley and the experience of playing in that environment helps this Buckeye team immensely.  After pounding Kent State, Cincy, Maryland, and Rutgers, the Ohio State players needed a dose of reality.  JT Barrett is still a freshman and he showed that for much of the night, Saturday.  The OSU coaches pulled this team together after the Va Tech debacle and will have this team ready to go against Sparty. And they will have to, or this team will indeed be in big trouble.

The college football playoff committee initial rankings?  About what I expected.  I still believe the Buckeyes are in the playoff if they win out. Sportsbook.com’s updated odds to win the national championship have Michigan State as the 4th favorite (7 ½ to 1 odds against winning the national championship) and Ohio State as the 8th favorite (9 to 1).  So, the oddsmakers seem to be thinking the same.  And I’ll take the opinions of the oddsmakers over those of the talking heads any day of the week.

Next up: Illinois.

The Buckeyes can name their score against Illinois, but will they?  I honestly see the OSU coaches taking a good amount of time this week to gear up for Michigan State, despite the coach-speak you will hear publicly.  They also have to protect JT Barrett’s sprained knee, and really shouldn’t call Barrett’s number on a designed run at any point against Illinois.  With Sparty on deck and Barrett ailing, my first thought was that OSU would have trouble covering the 28 point spread.  But the more I look at it, I see a very bad Illinois team despite their upset of Minnesota this past weekend.  And Urban will probably continue to keep his foot on the gas well into the 4th quarter, after seeing OSU come in at #16 in the initial playoff committee poll.   The call: Ohio State 45 Illinois 10.

Baver's Picks, A Visit to Happy Valley and Colin's CFG Questions

Follow Baver on his trip to Happy Valley. Twitter: @baverbuckeyebag

I  noticed in this week's Buckeye Bag that you don't like the Buckeyes to cover at Penn State. You haven't missed a Buckeye pick this year. What is your level of confidence in this one?

Not highly confident, but I think Penn State is the play here (against the spread).  When you are rolling, at some point you usually get a reality check….and I just see this week being that reality check.  The extra week of prep (after a bye week) for a James Franklin coached team is the big factor for me.  Hope I’m wrong, as I obviously want the Bucks to keep rolling.  I do think the Bucks come away with the win and ultimately head to East Lansing with a 7-1 record two weeks from now.  And if the Bucks get the Nits down a few scores early, they may steam-roll them, like the last four opponents.  After I said Raekwon McMillan was (basically) “playing like a freshman,” his play in the Rutgers game may be the turning point that really gets him going.  Something tells me he plays a big roll Saturday night, but I am still worried about this game, and still say take Penn State and the points.  The noise will be tough for first-year starter JT Barrett to deal with.

Give us an update on your picks to date and what games & lines jump out at you this week?

I’m 13-8 ATS, hitting 11 of the last 15, and 5-0-1 ATS in Buckeye games.  There is little I like this week, and the spreads I have been looking at haven’t moved much.  Vegas does a better job establishing the initial game week lines as the season goes on.  But, to stick with how I’ve been doing this, I will pick three games.  I am going to go against both Ole Miss and Mississippi State, both of whom have huge targets on their chests now, and both of whom have tough road games.  I like Kentucky getting the 13 1/2 at home against Messy State and I like LSU, at home, at night, getting 3 ½ against the Rebels.  With Kentucky and 2nd year head coach Mark Stoops (5-2 ATS this year), the future is bright; the Wildcats keep this one close.  LSU has covered back to back games and is showing signs of life.  Lastly, I think UCLA will start to pull things together here in the 2nd half of the year; Jim Mora will get UCLA back in the top 10.  I like the Bruins laying 13 ½ at Colorado.

Notre Dame sure looked like the real deal last week. Is this good news for the perception of Midwest football or a threat to future OSU dominance of the region?

Notre Dame is indeed a good football team and I think they still have a shot at the playoff.  But, their remaining schedule is brutal: with road trips to Navy, Arizona State and USC, and home stints against Northwestern and Louisville.  It was the right (pass interference) call at the end of the Fla State – Notre Dame game, but give the Irish credit for coming that close to upsetting the ‘Noles in Tallahassee.  Are the Irish a threat to Ohio State’s dominance in the Midwest?  I’d say, “somewhat.”

It sure looks like MSU is going to kick the unholy hell out of Michigan this weekend. Is it just that simple?

Yes.

Speaking of getting the unholy hell kicked out of you, what happened to Texas A & M last week and what team (s) are the best in the SEC?

Texas A&M is reeling big time.  And that was a Bama team that had not been playing well that spanked them.  I just think A&M is out of gas, mentally.  I still think Bama is the class of the SEC, followed closely by Auburn, who is followed closely by Georgia, who is followed closely by Messy State and Ole Miss.  The conference is very much up for grabs.  Big Ten fans are probably going to disagree wholeheartedly, but I think you have to put the SEC West champ in the playoff, regardless of how many losses they have and regardless of whether or not they beat Georgia in the SEC title game.

Back to the Penn State game….did I hear you were headed to Happy Valley?

Yes indeed….will try to even my record out at 1-1 in trips there.  The last time I was there?  Uhh….the last time Ohio State lost there, in 2005.  The students were a little hostile to us on that trip.  That was the first “white out” that I remember…it’s quite imposing.  The lion growl over the speakers (in person) is about as unbearable as it gets….probably how OSU haters view our OH-IO back and forth.  Have a friend, who is a professor at PSU, hosting a tailgate with his normal crew as well as our obnoxious bunch from C-bus.  Drinks will be flowing early Saturday.  Looking like ideal weather….knock on wood.  Will do my best to bring home a “W.”