Attention Baseball Geeks: MLB Hot Stove 12/27/2014 by Brian Phillips

2) What other deals looked good to you?

The White Sox are in the conversation all of the sudden eh! I've always loved Jeff Samardzija. David Robertson gives them a legit closer obviously. Melky Cabrera is a nice piece. Adam LaRoche isn't sexy, but he had a solid year for Washington (and for once didn't get off to a horrific start.)

As much as it pains me to admit it, I like what Miami has done. The Marlins have added in December Mat Latos, Michael Morse, Dee Gordon, Dan Haren, Martin Prado and David Phelps. Lump these guys with their stable of good young talent led by the Gioncarlo Stanton and all of the sudden you have a contender here. I'll never trust owner Jeffrey Loria, but I will pick Miami to vie for a playoff spot next season.

In Boston Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez arrive, but not without risk. The Sox have the right thought anyway pushing Hanley out to left and leaving the exciting young Xander Boegaerts at short. I like Rick Porcello for his extreme ground ball tilt at Fenway. Ditto Wade Miley. If the Sox get 2013 Justin Masterson they'll be thrilled. These guys better pitch well because it's anyone's guess as to what they'll get from Clay Buchholz after his horrid 2014.

I'm of two minds on San Diego. I'll give the Padres credit for making a lot of noise, but I'm not sure what to make of their noise. Matt Kemp reportedly has arthritic hips, and they sure gave up a lot of prospects for one year of Justin Upton. I doubt seriously he'll re-up to hit in spacious Petco Park. Getting Wil Myers from Tampa is fun, but you have to wonder about his being traded twice in two years. How's his wrist? The Padres are all in now, but with a load of right handed bats and not so good outfield defense.

Other deals of interest:

Uber leftie prospect Andrew Heaney went west to LA in the Dee Gordon/Dan Haren deal and then the Dodgers immediately flipped him down to the Angels for Howie Kendrick. I've always liked Kendrick, but Heaney has a chance to be special. 

Jon Lester to the Cubs gives them the number 1 they've needed since trading Samardzija. Adding Jason Motte isn't without risk, but he was lights out in 2012.

I like the Royals taking a chance on Kris Medlen. Yes he's coming off his second Tommy John, he'll be a bargain if he stays healthy.

The Mariners needed some right-handed wallup and Nelson Cruz brings that. I'm realistic though. He won't hit 40 playing for Seattle. 30? Perhaps. 

Toronto getting Josh Donaldson from Oakland was a nice. Sure the average was way down, but the third baseman still clubbed 29 home runs. He should go gangbusters up north.

St. Louis grabbing Jason Heyward from the Braves is a nice jolt for the Cards defense. I have a feeling they're going to get that power bat going again too.

One to watch:

In the Prado/Phelps to Miami deal the Yankees got hard throwing Nathan Eovaldi back. So far his career has been all about lighting up radar and not striking enough guys out. He is certainly a work in progress, but with a kid that throws as hard as he does..... We'll see. 

3) What deals left you scratching your head?

The deal Miami gave Giancarlo Stanton is bizarre. It's long, and heavily back loaded. Stanton has an opt out when he turns 30, but why would he bail for that kind of dough coming during his inevitable decline? He's not getting a new and better contract after he passes into his 30s. (I don't think anyway.) Whoever owns the Marlins will be paying Stanton a lot of money long after owner Loria is dead and in hell. 

Other than that.... It's not so much reservations as it is accepting that some teams are full on rebuilding. Oakland, Atlanta, and The Reds come to mind as clubs that seem to have already punted 2015. For Atlanta they are no doubt pushing for when their new park opens in 2017. And Oakland is just being Oakland. Billy Beane will always be looking for what he believes is the sell high for any player. 

I'm still waiting for the Yankees to do something big. Times have certainly changed. If the boss were still alive they'd pay whatever was necessary to bring in free agent ace Max Scherzer. His price tag is too much for the Yanks I'm reading. All that A. Rod money sitting on the books is a real drag on the budget.

4) Any significant fantasy ramifications?

With Robertson heading to the White Sox Dellin Betances is going to close for the Yankees. No one could hit him last year. He was phenomenal. That said guys are going to overpay like they do for closers all the time. If you're in a keeper league hopefully you stashed him away last year on the cheap. 

Don't pay Nelson Cruz for 40 home runs, but you knew that.

As I mentioned I'm intrigued by a change of scenery for Jason Heyward. 

Donaldson's price jumped.

Justin Upton will be a top five disappointment next season. 

Here's a cheap one dollar guy to profit on: The Mariners traded Michael Saunders to Toronto a couple of weeks ago. I've watched him for years, and yes while he's been a slow developing, injury prone disappointment, I can't help but feel there's a really good ballplayer in there. Keep an eye on him. 

5) As a Mariners fan, what do you make of their off season moves and how do you see the AL West shaping up in 2015?

Cruz will be a big boost. The best things they did though were the things they didn't do. The M's were in on all three Padres outfielders and that would have meant shipping off young pitching talent James Paxton and Tijuan Walker. The Mariners missed the playoffs by one game last year thanks to great pitching and defense. They still need to add another outfielder bat, but let's be smart about it. 

Tying up Kyle Seager long term was a no brainer. Make sure you watch him as much as you can next season. You probably knew he can hit, but 15 can flat out pick it too.

I really believe it'll be The Angels and Mariners going toe to toe in 2015. Oakland might have trouble finishing ahead of Houston believe it or not. The Rangers should be vastly improved just by vertue of having all those injured players back. 

Listen to Brian Phillips weekday afternoons on WWCD102.5 FM

Big $ of the NCP ponders...So what if Johnny wasn't white???

During my time at Pencilstorm, I have made no secret about my disdain for the Browns drafting Johnny Manziel. A hefty percentage of this disdain is rooted purely in football deficiencies. He cannot play in structure, has zero playbook experience, is slight in stature and suffers from misguided confidence. With Johnny though, you also get a second list of cons based on personality and off-the-field issues to add to the playing weaknesses.

Somehow, even with this laundry list of negatives he has garnered the adoration of a large percentage of Browns fans (jersey sales don't lie). I, for one, am wildly confused by this phenomenon.

So in the midst of this confusion, I took time to ponder, "What if Johnny looked different?" I'm not talking about him inking a deal with pro activ, I'm talking about his race. What if Johnny maintained his baggage but was African-American? Would Cleveland fans still ignore and justify his negatives? Would they still have celebrated his arrival with such crazed anticipation?

To make things interesting, I'm going to actually assign a specific person that he could assume the body of. Imagining how Johnny would be received by Browns fans if he had braids or gold teeth would be like shooting fish in a barrel. The Johnny to imagine for the remainder of this diatribe is Braylon Edwards. So take a walk into fantasy land with me as we consider if "Braylon Football" would be wildly popular in Cleveland if the last 16 months of his life maintained this timeline:

August 2013 - A Sports Illustrated article highlights his entitled background and petulant ways.

August 2013- Receives a tickle on the wrist for signing autographs, an offense that cost other players significant playing time and NFL money (including some Buckeyes).

August 2013- Returns from 1st half wrist tickle against Rice, and receives taunting penalties for his, ahem, "lack of on-field sportsmanship."

August - December 2013- Sees his output decline but his draft stock improve due to no other college qb's excelling.

May 2014 - Begins to slide in draft, and in desperation sends a "lets wreck this league" text to a team which happens to catch the fancy of an owner who is of the same cultural and economic background that he is. That owner demands that he be drafted.

Summer 2014 - Even though he his severely handicapped by his lack of playbook experience, he chooses to escape Browns training camp at every opportunity to party. Several saucy pics surface, including one that shows him about to partake in a certain nasal stimulant.

Summer 2014 - During a pre-season game, he decides to greet an opposing team with a single extended finger.

November 2014 - Is involved in a brawl the weekend of a road game.

November 2014 - Reports surface that he free lances in practice and isn't committed to learning the playbook, etc. Cameras catch him arriving at games at the last possible second, even though he is expected to see some playing time.

November 2014 - Enters a game and runs for a T.D. Even though his team is still down by two scores he decides to flash a money sign to the opposing crowd.

December 2014 - In response to being called a midget, he finds a way to compare himself to Super Bowl champion and perennial MVP candidate, Drew Brees. At the time of this comparison, Johnny has 0 NFL wins.

December 2014 - Is flat out embarrassed in his first start.

I'm not a sociologist, but I grew up in Cleveland and have been an avid C town sports fan since I first learned to walk. There is no way I believe that "Braylon Football" would enjoy even a fraction of the popularity that Johnny has had handed to him since he was drafted. As a matter of fact, I assume his first round drafting would have been widely lampooned and questioned. Where Braylon would have been admonished for being irresponsible, Johnny has been applauded for enjoying his youth. Where Braylon would be a team killer, Johnny is seen as a master of improv.

This is simply my opinion, and outside of some "Soul Man/C. Thomas Howell-esque" experiment there will never be any concrete evidence to support my Johnny vs. Braylon Football hypothesis. I also know this opinion may be hard to swallow for some Cleveland sports fans. However, if one is truly honest with themselves and examines the plight of African American qb's  cross-referenced with Johnny's history, it's hard not to identify a double standard in the Cleveland-Manziel phenomenon.

The North Coast Posse are Big $ and K-Dubs the Soldier. They cover the Bronwns exclusively for Pencilstorm. Follow them on twitter @northcoastposse.

Hot Stove Chatter. Reds and Indians. by Brian Phillips

Reds fans should be concerned by the complete lack of movement on the offensive front after last season's anemic output, and their starting staff is now worse with the exits of Mat Latos to Miami and Alfredo Simon to Detroit. 

The idea of trading Simon in and of itself isn't bad. 2014 was a high water mark without question for the journeyman. What they got in return though is a piddling young shortshop in Eugenio Suarez and underwelming A-ball pitcher Jonathan Crawford. 

The 23 year old Suarez appeared in 85 games for the big club last season and in 277 plate appearances whiffed almost 25% of the time. In 2012 Suarez was a top 15 prospect for Detroit, but their list was pretty weak that season. (Nick Castellanos was #1, and I don't see a future star there.) Suarez was rated then as a decent glove guy with a utility infielder ceiling. Not a lot to get excited about there.

Crawford was drafted in the first round by the Tigers in 2013. The 23 year old from The University of Florida pitched in A ball last year and posted decent numbers, but his walk and strike out rates at that low level indicate a cloudy future. 

The Latos deal looks like a salary dump to me. Sure there are concerns over health, but isn't that true of any pitcher (see Cueto)? In return the Marlins shipped a nice catching prospect in Chad Wallach and a mediocre rightie named Anthony Desclafani.  

The just turned 23 Wallach was a fifth round pick in 2013 out of baseball factory Cal-State Fullerton. He logged a walk rate in A ball last year that can only be described as Billy Beane porn. 62 walks to 46 k's is impressive at any level. He doesn't display any power to speak of, but scouts love his defense. Someday the Reds can trade him to Oakland.

Desclafani is on his third organization having arrived in Miami as part of that infamous trade with the Blue Jays back in 2013. He started five games for the Marlins last season, but scouts profile him out of the bullpen. In the Arizona Fall League just last month the clipboards were still looking for a supposed developing change up. Without that he's just another fastball/slider guy topping out at 91/94 with the heater. In a 33 inning big league sample last year Desclafani showed more fly ball tilt than you'd like for a guy going into Great American, and he gave up too much hard contact. He'll compete for a rotation job in the spring, but don't hold your breath.

Bottom Line? The Reds are worse off than they were when they packed up their gear in late September. Homer Bailey underwent surgery in September, and you just hold your breath with Cueto's durability long term. You have to be concerned as a Reds fan.

The Indians off season has been pretty simple by comparison. The Indians acquired slugging OF/1B Brandon Moss from the A's in exchange for AA second baseman Joey Wendle on December 8th. The Tribe are loaded with young middle infielders so giving up Wendle isn't a big deal. 

Brandon Moss is Nick Swisher with more pop. Both hit righties better than lefties though Swish is a switch hitter. I'm sure they're both fun to drink beer with so there's that. Moss is going to strike out a ton, hit 25 or so home runs and drive you nuts when he goes 0 for a week here and there. 

And on Tuesday the Indians signed veteran starter Gavin Floyd to a one year 4 million dollar deal. Floyd's only season in Atlanta last year was shortened by injury. You can't really call him an innings eater as he failed to reach 200 in his final four years with the White Sox. The money is right though and if they can give him to the ball 30 times in 2015 they'll look at him as a bargain. Floyd essentially replaces the departed Justin Masterson in the rotation. Masterson was always a bit hard to figure anyway.

The Tribe could be pretty good this year if they get bounce backs from Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana and Swisher. All had disappointing seasons and yet the Indians hung around to the end. 

Brian Phillips is the afternoon jock at the legendary Indie radio blowtorch WWCD102.5. He knows a thing or two about a thing or two. 

TCU Nerds Better Prep for a Course in Football Economics 101. OSU Wins and Gets In by Colin Gawel

IF, Ohio State defeats Wisconsin in a semi-impressive fashion tonight at the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis, the Buckeyes will make the four-team college football playoff and Horned Frogs will be relegated to a - ahem - "less visible" bowl appearance. You heard me. If everybody wins out, the Buckeyes slide into the last spot and FSU jumps to #3.

"But, TCU is is currently number 3? And they killed Iowa State today? And their strength of schedule…"

Yeah, yeah, numbers, numbers, eye test, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah…..

Yeah, I've got a a number for you: 261,587- TCU total football attendance.

Texas Christian University coached by good old "what's his name," featuring "I've never heard of him" and "who is that guy?" only has an enrollment of 8,200 students who seem more inclined to study than to attend football games. In fact, the lack of fan support has been so noticeable that the media has been covering it. Check this out  or  this picture  or even this

In contrast, The Ohio State University football machine drew over 740,000 fans in the same season. Almost a HALF MILLION more butts in the seats. And those tickets require a much more serious financial commitment. Face value for the 2014 Michigan game was $150 for a single ducat. And that was the worst seat in the house. 

Meanwhile, back wherever TCU plays, you can purchase a SEASON TICKET for $250. That's right, every game for a grand total of just $250. And that is the "Championship Level" which I assume means you aren't jammed into the end zone bleachers.

Let's cut to the chase. The reason ESPN and the College Football powers got rid of that pesky computer ranking and put humans back in charge is because computers don't factor in the most important number of all: the numbers that starts with a dollar sign. The next time big college football turns down big money it will be the first time. In a long time. There is just no way on God's Green Earth that if OSU is a viable candidate it will be left out of the first ever final-four football playoff. The Bucks have too many fans, too famous of a coach and it's too important to keep all those Midwestern TV sets tuned into the games to keep advertisers happy that their money was well spent.

And with the possibility of a team winning and playing another travel game just one week later for all the marbles, I can only imagine the various Bowl committees will be pressing for schools with the biggest and most dedicated fan bases to fill all those seats and purchase all those plane tickets. TCU would be a huge financial drag on this, the very first season of the new four team playoff. 

There has been a lot of chatter about who comprises the playoff selection committee and how they will avoid a conflict of interest situation among the various conferences and teams. However, the most important committee members have not been mentioned up to this point. They have no conflict of interest. They are the men behind the curtain and they only show up at the very end of the very last selection meeting. It is the ESPN/ABC head of programming and the director of advertising sales. They will walk in, ask to look at the playoff  list, take out a red marker and make a slash through TCU and circle OSU with a smiley face next to it.  

Mark it down. If the Buckeyes win tonight and look decent doing it the Buckeyes will be playing on New Year's Day. - Colin Gawel

Colin Gawel created Pencilstorm at Colin's Coffee, plays in the band Watershed and wrote the story "Lebron James Will Return to Cleveland" back in June 2013. So doubt him at your own risk.

Dead Schembechlers Tickets Going Fast, Click Here For Tickets Or Risk Being a Shutout of the Hate Michigan Rally (loser)

Jeff Hassler may not approve of their language but I can tell you that I have seen these guys live a number of times and there is no place on Earth better to be the night before the OSU v Michigan game. In fact, if you consider yourself a Buckeye Football fan and haven't seen the Dead Schembechlers play, then you really aren't a very big Buckeye football fan. 

Be warned, the show isn't for the faint of heart and unless you want your kid's ears ringing w F- Bombs and hair matted with Wolverine blood, this is a 21 and up show. Ace of Cups Friday November 28th. Doors 6pm, show at 8pm sharp.  Tickets WILL SELLOUT IN ADVANCE so I wouldn't waste time messing around. @baverbuckeyebag

Click Here For Dead Schembechlers Tickets!!

Easy Money! Baver now 20-11-1 on CFB Picks.This Week's Picks and Colin's Questions OSU v MSU

Follow @baverbuckeyebag and click here for Baver Buckeye Bag  OSU v MSU

1) Give me an update on your picks so far and what lines do you find interesting this week?

Overall picks on the year, combining the OSU picks with the weekly plays of the week, I am 20-11-1 against the spread (7-0-1 picking the Ohio State games ATS).  I like Virginia getting 20 against Florida State.  Coming off the big comeback win over Louisville on the road, I think the Noles get complacent again.  And Virginia has a stingy defense.  I’ll go with another dog and advise taking Notre Dame getting the 2 ½ at Arizona State.  I tend to think Notre Dame wins a tight game outright.  And despite the tough remaining schedule, I think Notre Dame may win all four of their remaining games and end up in the playoff.  Finally, I like Oregon laying 8 at Utah, despite what appears to be a bad spot for the Ducks coming off their spanking of Stanford.  Not a great spot for Utah either, after the tough OT loss at Arizona State.  And I think Oregon, as a team, is starting to pull together nicely.

2) Wow. This is a big game. Lose and the best we can hope for is third in the frigging Big Ten. Yuk. Can you recall a more important Buckeye conference game with still so much football to be played?

 Wrong or right, lose this game, and the Buckeyes look like a fraud to those CFB fans outside of Ohio.  I mean, sooner or later, Urban Meyer has to beat a top team.  And like you said….lose this game and for all intents and purposes, the Bucks are at best #3 in the Big Ten.  And come 2015, four Big Ten Championship games will then be in the books, of which Ohio State will have won none of.  So, no….I can’t recall another game that means so much, three games prior to the Michigan game.

3)This same Buckeye team had trouble scoring against MSU just 11 months ago with the two time Big Ten MVP at QB and Carlos Hyde pounding the rock behind our best O line in decades. I'm trying to imagine how on Earth we are going to score any points let alone enough to win. Help me out.
 
I guess one counter argument is that Michigan State’s defense appears to be a notch below where they were a year ago, which offsets some of OSU’s offensive downgrade.  But your points are very much valid.  I tend to think the Buckeye defense and/or special teams are going to have to score in order for Ohio State to win this game.  And the Buckeye defense is going to have to play far better than they did in last year’s Big Ten Championship game.  They simply cannot give up 30+ points again.

4) You recently returned from the game in Happy Valley. How did that insane environment help prepare this team for what lies ahead at East Lansing? How tough of a venue is Spartan Stadium?
 
It won’t be as crazy as Happy Valley – not sure any venue is.  I have been to Spartan Stadium twice; both were beat downs, with OSU winning 38-7 in 2006 and 45-7 in 2008.  But Michigan State is such a better program now and that stadium will be rocking Saturday night.  I think the craziness in Beaver Stadium two weeks ago will indeed help the Buckeyes deal with the Sparty crowd tomorrow night.

5) Doesn't the case of MSU once again prove the advantage of having a tough schedule a myth? Instead of losing to Oregon on the road, what if Sparty had traveled to say, Central Florida and come into this game undefeated? Surely they would be top six in the country and in much better shape for the playoff. Why bother to schedule such tough games?
 
I guess I’ll go back to what I keep harping on….just win (from here on out), and things will take care of themselves.  I think there is a 90%-plus chance that the winner of Ohio State – Michigan State will be in the CFB playoff if they win their other games as well (which is not a given).  Therefore, I don’t think the Oregon loss hurt Sparty that bad.  But I see where you are coming from.  In some cases, scheduling the big dog can do more harm than good.