Can the Illini Spring the Trap on the Bucks? Baver Answers Colin's Questions


Colin: Illinois has a long history of being a flaming orange pain in the ass and this is the trap game of all trap games. Is there an upset scenario?

Baver: Definitely the biggest trap game of the year. The wind in Memorial Stadium can make life hell on a QB. It’s hard to gauge what you’re going to get from the Illini. They played Iowa, Wisconsin and Nebraska tough, but got rolled by North Carolina and Penn State. Illinois is much tougher at home than they are on the road. I tend to think the Barrett-led Buckeyes get their offense back in gear. If OSU does start slow, Urban may choose to button things up, trusting his defense to get it done. I think we’ll know early in this one whether it will be a blowout or an ugly game where Ohio State simply wants to escape with a win.   

Colin: It is assumed that JTB's return will cure all that ails the offense. Is it really that simple or are we expecting too much?

Baver: It’s not that simple, but his return is going to help this offense leaps and bounds. But the Bucks are still hurting (literally) at WR and the O-line is still not performing up to expectations. We’ll obviously learn a lot more about this offense a week from Saturday when Sparty comes to town.  

Colin: How does this year's defense compare with the great Buckeye defenses of the past 25 years? Top, bottom or middle of the pack?

Baver: I think it’s definitely in the top tier, but it’s still hard to tell how good they really are with the competition they’ve played so far. 6 of OSU’s first 9 opponents rank outside the top-80 in total offense. Talent wise, I think it’s in the top 3 at a minimum. And Bosa is one of the top 2 or 3 defenders I have seen play here.

Colin: Zeke's Heisman door is opening a little wider each week. Is it his to lose now?

Baver: The oddsmakers still have Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry as the favorites, but it’s tightening up with Zeke continuing to rack up 100+ yds every game. And the Bucks had a tailback win the Heisman in 1955, 1975 and 1995, so Zeke’s gotta keep the 20-year rule alive, right? Of note, teams have stacked the box all year to stop Zeke, yet Bama didn’t sell out at all to stop the run and still held Fournette to 31 yards.

Colin: Speaking of rising stars, Tom Herman is burning bright right now. Forget about open jobs, what are the chances a big school like LSU, Georgia or Texas, decides to make a move and nab him before it's too late?

Baver: I don’t think Miles is going anywhere at LSU but Richt is probably out at year’s end and Charlie Strong is on thin ice. I wasn’t ready to go this far a month ago, but the big time programs are now ready to hire Herman. If Richt is indeed out at year-end, Herman has to be near the top of their candidate list.

Colin: Give us an update on your picks to date and what game and lines will you be watching this weekend?

Baver: I had the #’s wrong last week, but these should be right: 18-8-1 against the spread, including 7-2 ATS on the Ohio State games. I like the Bucks laying the 16 1/2 this week. It’s a trap game but it’s the second lowest Buckeye spread of the year next to Va Tech. I like the Bucks 38-17. I think Minnesota will be out of gas after playing Michigan and Ohio State the last two weeks, so I like Iowa at home laying the 11 1/2 against the Gophers. And I like Stanford -10 at home against Oregon. I usually like the dogs, but I see no underdog that jumps out at me this week.

Can Cardale Keep the Offense Humming Against the Gophers? Baver Has Your Answers.

Colin: Will Urban go back to running the "Cardale" offense which struggled or maybe incorporate some of JTB's package which seems much better suited for this collection?

Baver: I think you’ll see a mix of an offense tailored toward Cardale and maybe some of what we’ve seen with JTB, save the read option. I hate to dis Cardale….I am rooting for the guy, and the so-called fans that boo him in The ‘Shoe are pathetic. You asked earlier in the year… something along the lines of: is Cardale’s confidence going to hold up to criticism, with fans clamoring for JTB? I said at the time that I thought Cardale’s confidence would be fine, but I don’t think it is right now. I see a guy that has lost a lot of confidence. I hope I am wrong.

Colin: Is Cardale capable of running the read option?

Baver: Not really; it’s not his game, although they still may run it on occasion with Cardale.

Colin: Does Braxton finally throw a forward pass this week?

Baver: My guess is yes. Beck and Urban were probably saving Braxton’s first pass for the Sparty game, but I think they are going to have to utilize Braxton more this week with Barrett being held out.

Colin: Minnesota lit up the vaunted Michigan defense last week. Are the Gophers improving or was it a fluke?

Baver: A little of both. The Jerry Kill retirement added some extra emotion last week. QB Mitch Leidner is going to cause the Buckeye D some problems with his legs. But without David Cobb at TB, the Gopher offense just isn’t the same this year and will have problems moving the ball on Ohio St. On the other side of the ball, Minny’s CB’s (Murray & Lynn) are big time; Cardale needs to be sharp or those guys will make him pay.

Colin: The month of November is shaping up with some epic battles. What three or four games are going to determine who makes the CFP?

Baver: LSU at Bama on Saturday, Sparty at Oh St in 2 wks, Baylor at TCU on Nov 27th, and Notre Dame at Stanford Nov 28th. Those are the 4 biggest gms, but the top four Big 12 teams (Bay, TCU, Okl, Ok St) all play each other in Nov, so it’s gonna be quite the ride in that conference.  

Colin: Give us an update on your picks to date and what games and lines will you be keeping an eye on this weekend?

Baver: 14-6-1 overall against the spread, which includes 6-2 ATS on the Buckeye picks. I think Minniehaha +24 is the play this week; as mentioned above, I think the Buckeye O takes a step back without JT. Hope I am wrong and Cardale lights it up, but I am going to say 31 -13 Ohio State, which means a Minn cover. I like Bama laying the 6 1/2 is against LSU. Fournette, I think, will be (somewhat) held in check and LSU will have problems putting points on the board. Finally, I think you have to take the ‘Noles getting 11 at Clemson. The ‘Noles have had their number and I think they hang tight in this one, no matter who FSU starts at QB. I still think the Tigers win the game, though.

 

What Does the NCP Predict for Tonight's Browns Game: PAIN!

@Northcoastposse was just judged as one of the top five twitter follows by the Cleveland Browns.

Big$:  Ok, it’s pretty clear that I’m a dues-paying member of the Anti-Johnny Coalition. However, I’ve always maintained that our signal-calling Monday FunDay-er was going to find his way onto the field in 2015.

Several Browns fans (who may or may not partake in high-powered psychedelic mind- enhancers) have wondered why it has taken this long for #2 to be #1. Here is a rundown:

- The team is not losing because of Josh McCown.  To play at the level he has with no running game or play-making WR’s has been slightly amazing.  To date, he is the only NFL QB to throw 2 TD’s against the Broncos.  For further perspective, see Aaron Rodgers’ stats against Denver.

- I will reiterate, Mike Pettine’s livelihood depends on results.  Every decision he is going to make is going to be based on the need to win games.  If Johnny gave the Browns the best chance to win, he would play.  Last year, fans were quick to dismiss Johnny’s in-season partying, and late arrival to games.  Eventually, his lifestyle choices culminated in the week 17 debacle where a search team had to be sent to look for him.  The same issues and rumors are swirling and being dismissed in 2015.  Browns fans need to look up the definition of insanity.

- Lastly, the future is bleak for this ramshackle organization.  I’m not sure the front office has any real strategy to keep ticket holders invested into 2016.  The one glimmer they had was to let Josh finish this out and proclaim next year as “The season of Johnny!”  This last-ditch effort becomes D.O.A. if he is exposed (again) in his starts this season.  Don’t be too sure ownership is excited about Manziel seeing the field.

My prediction for Thursday:  To quote the legendary Clubber Lang, “PAIN!”  The NFL is a copycat league, and as coaches and coordinators get axed across the country, pink slips may start getting handed out in Berea early Friday morning. Unfortunately, our good ole boy owner has immunity to such consequences.

As for our weekly LeBron question, I’d play The King at QB against the Bengals. Needless to say, I’m not very excited about Johnny taking the field.

 

Can Andy Dalton Top Last Year's 2.0 QBR vs the Browns? Kevin A. is Back Talking Bengals

Kevin A. is back talking Bengals football, and the Browns are coming to town to play the undefeated cats. This week's questions come from Marco Scola in Chicago.  You can check out all of Marco's sports insights and podcasts at MarcoScolaMedia.com

A recent article on the players tribune website says the Bengals are the most cohesive team in the league.  Do you agree?


It's a hard thing to quantify.  The Bengals have been together a long time and Marvin Lewis has been the coach for 13 years, but its more than that.   Andy Dalton has really embraced his leadership role, and it showed during Sunday's win over the Steelers.   Players are constantly referring to Dalton when they talk of what's changed with the team, and its not just rah-rah talk.  Andy truly has the players believing they can win every game.  As far as most cohesive, I believe New England still owns that one. 

On Tuesdays podcast, I said the Bengals were the #2 team in the league behind the Patriots, but I questioned if they can get past New England.  Are you on board with a Pats/Bengals AFC title game, and if so, do you take the Bengals?


Well lets slow down a bit. The Bengals are very good but the fan in me still thinks they can blow this entire thing.   However I do agree they are the two best teams in the AFC, and also believe the Bengals overall posess more talent than the Patriots.   What the Bengals do not have is Tom Brady directing the ship.   While I think the Bengals are a threat to the Patriots should both teams get there, I'm not sure they can win that game quite yet.  It's not impossible, but we need to see how Dalton plays down the stretch. 

Of the remaining undefeated teams, would you say the Bengals have had the toughest schedule?


The Patriots seemingly have had it pretty easy so far. They got the Steelers without Le'Veon Bell and the rest is rather vanilla to date.  The Bengals have an impressive win at Oakland and came back to beat Seattle and Pittsburgh with fourth quarter comebacks, but I think the Broncos have had it as tough as Cincinnati with wins over Oakland, Minnesota and Green Bay.   I'll call it a push with Denver and Cincinnati, mainly because Denver is doing it with a rubber arm and defense.  Going forward however, the Bengals still need to play at Denver and Arizona, with another tilt against  Pittsburgh coming up as well, which should be very interesting considering the bad blood brewing between those two teams. 

The Bengals get the Browns and Johnny Manziel Thursday.  How does this one play out with Andy Dalton's prime time reputation?


It's no secret Dalton has lit it up during the day and struggled at night, and with flex scheduling he now faces three prime timers in a row.  Andy is just 3-7 in night games, including last years debacle against these same Browns where he posted a 2.0 QBR.   Sadly it wasn't anything the Browns did defensively, it was Dalton missing wide open receivers badly.     But this isn't the same Andy, and the Browns come in with a mash unit, missing stars Joe Haden and Donte Whitner, as well as their starting QB to name just a few.  Thursday night games tend to even the playing field with both teams on a short week, but the talent is undeniably in Cincinnati's favor in this one.

The Bengals should be able to stay on track and win this one fairly easily, moving to 8-0. Let's call this one 27-13. 

See you next week.  Have any questions for the next write up?  Send them to kmalbanese@yahoo.com or hit me up on twitter @kmalbanese

Is it Time to Believe in Andy Dalton? Kevin A. Answers Bengals Questions.


1) Andy Dalton is off to an amazing start. But, deep in your bones do you fear he will once again ruin the season with a historically bad playoff performance?

Andy's playoff struggles have been overblown.  In 2014 he was playing without Marvin Jones, AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, and a host of others.  In 2011 he was a rookie on a team many thought wouldn't win three games.  In 2012 we saw Jermaine Gresham drop seemingly every big throw he needed to catch, and the defense hasn't shown up for the most part every year.   That being said, he needs to play at a higher level when the bright lights are on, and having Eifert back healthy should bring the Bengals their first playoff win since 1991.

2) Who is more to blame for the Bengals playoff struggles: Andy Dalton, Marvin Lewis or neither?

If someone is to blame it's definitely Marvin Lewis.  His signature strength is defense, and that's been a huge failure in the post season.  Being brutally honest, AJ Green hasn't taken the criticism he deserves either.  He has vanished in many big games, not just the playoffs.

3) That said, this is an excellent football team. If they can stay healthy, how many wins are possible? 

When this season started, I felt having Eifert and Jones back was really under reported in the media, and we are seeing what kind of an offense this is when they are together.  This team can literally hit you from anywhere on the field, and defensively get back Vontaze Burfict possibly as soon as this Sunday against the Steelers.   13 wins is not out of the question, but I'm sticking to my pre season prediction of 12.

4) The game this Sunday almost has a playoff feel. Which team needs it more?

The Bengals currently sit as a 1.5 favorite on the road, and that can't sit well with a Steeler team that is already three games back in the loss column.  Definitely a bigger game for Pittsburgh, as another loss all but eliminates them from winning the division.  On the flip side, its a chance for the Bengals to step on the throat and end this race early.

5) Who do you see winning and how does it happen?

It will be a physical game for the running backs on both sides, and Le'Veon Bell should be playing with a chip on his shoulder after last year when Reggie Nelson ended his season early.  That being said, this game will also see plenty of passing with Dalton and the probable return of Ben Roethlisberger.

I will take the Bengals +1.5, with a score somewhere in the 27-23 range.  I don't think the Steelers will be able to cover Eifert, and I think he's the difference this week.

Kevin Albanese is an expert on the Bengals, Red Sox and KISS. He writes things sometimes.