Can Sparty and the Disrespected Dino Pull Off the Upset? Baver Answers Colin's Questions.

Colin: It's Senior Day at the Shoe. What are the chances Braxton Miller starts this game under center at least for one snap considering all he has meant to this football program?

Baver: It very well may happen, but I think this game is too important. I’m guessing OSU goes with their normal personnel to start the game. But, a tip of the hat to Braxton. He’s one of the best QB’s to ever play here and has handled himself with class.

Colin: That takes us to this week's celebrity question from Big $ of the @NorthCoastPosse: "Why doesn't OSU take a couple of deep shots throwing to Braxton every week? Even just as a threat. Nobody else seems able to get open downfield."

Baver: Against a good defense, I don’t think the OSU coaches have confidence in Braxton (or any other WR) as a deep threat; and I don’t think the coaches have confidence in the ability of the O-line to pass-protect. I think Urban would rather go with the safer stuff; i.e. pound EZE. But it is indeed maddening that the OSU coaches can’t utilize Braxton’s skills effectively.

Colin: Which players that are most likely to play their final home game are you going to miss most next year?

Baver: Joey will be sorely missed; he’s an absolute, unblockable freak. Next, EZE….even with all the great tailbacks that have played here, you can make the argument that EZE tops the list. Almost no chance either Joey or EZE returns in ’16, but they will be making the right move.

Colin: For all that Mark Dantonio has accomplished, he still seems a bit disrespected by the general public. Where do you think he ranks among current top head coaches and is there ever a chance he moves to a true power program like USC or Georgia?

Baver: Dino is as underrated as they come. Off the top of my head, I came up with 7 elite coaches (that have yet to peak, like Bill Snyder): 1) Urbs, 2) Saban, 3) Hairball, 4) Briles, 5) Patterson (TCU), 6) Dino and 7) Dabo. So Cal doesn’t appear to be Dantonio’s kind of place, but you never know; he may be ready for the next challenge. Georgia could be in play as well. But I’m wondering if some past health issues keep Dino from wanting to relocate.

Colin: 13 points seems like too many, are the wise guys worried about Cook's injured shoulder?

Baver: I’m guessing Cook’s shoulder concerns have driven the line up a point or so. But, I think the line was going to be too high regardless. I think Cook will be good-to-go; if he isn’t, that’s a huge boost for Ohio St.

Colin: How do you see this game playing out? What do the Bucks have to do or not do to win this game?

Baver: The Bucks have to keep WR Aaron Burbridge in check; he has the best #’s of any WR in the B1G. I think Burbridge does his damage, even against a talented OSU secondary. Sparty will have little success on the ground. On the other side, the Slobs have to find some way to handle DE Shilique Calhoun & NT Malik McDowell. I think the Buckeye O-line will have trouble doing so, and I see a lower scoring game than Vegas expects. I anticipate MSU’s defense rising up and giving Sparty a chance to pull the upset. Ohio St has gotten away with TO’s in big games in the past, but multiple TO’s Saturday may finally do them in. But, I like the Bucks 24-17.

Colin: Give us an update on your picks and other games and lines you will be keeping an eye on the weekend.

Baver: 19-10-1 against the spread and now 8-2 picking the OSU games ATS. Hope I am wrong, but with Dantonio being so tough on the road, I think you have to take Sparty +13 1/2. I love State Penn catching 3 1/2 at home against Michigan; bad spot for scUM, who isn’t playing well anyway. Finally, I like Purdue getting 23 at Iowa. Purdue has played well against its toughest opponents all year.

 

Can Dalton and Company Cut the Power on J.J. Watt? Kevin A. Has The Answer.

The Bengals went to 8-0 beating the Browns last week.  Is Andy Dalton over his prime time struggles?


Not only do I think Dalton is over it, he's a legitimate MVP candidate to this point.   He's won his last two games in prime time, and I expect this week's game will make it three in a row.   Next week he gets another at Arizona, but there's no shame in losing to the Cardinals if it goes that way.    


The Texans come in with former Browns QB Brian Hoyer, and he's beaten the Bengals before.  Does that make you nervous?


Not really.  Outside of their star WR DeAndre Hopkins, there isn't much there.  They can't run the ball and the OL has been awful.  They will probably try to do a lot of screen passes and hope for a big play or two from Hopkins.  Losing Arian Foster has really hurt them.  Hopkins will make some plays but it won't be enough.  


JJ Watt is one of the best players in the league.  Will the Bengals be up to the task?


The Bengals effectively took Watt out of the game in last years' win over the Texans, and obviously will try the same approach.   The key will be to stay out of 3rd and long, that's where Watts eats. The Texans lead the league in 3rd down defense, so it's important to make gains on the early downs. That being said, it's asking a lot to shut Watt out two times in a row.   Quite frankly it may be impossible.  


You said two weeks ago that Tyler Eifert was one of the biggest differences in the Bengals this year, and he went off on the Browns. How's he going to do this week?


Eifert leads all NFL TE in touchdowns and he's going to be good every week.  If he's not catching the ball  he's making key blocks, but he's also one of the best red zone players in the entire league. Get used to it, the kid is great. The mini-Gronk moniker handed to him isn't that far off.  


So how does the Texans game play out?  What's the prediction this week?


The Bengals should be able to run the ball effectively, and defensively it could be a field day for Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins.    These teams on paper simply don't match up, very similarly to the Browns last week.   The Bengals move to a franchise record 9-0.    

Bengals 31, Texans 17.

Can the Illini Spring the Trap on the Bucks? Baver Answers Colin's Questions


Colin: Illinois has a long history of being a flaming orange pain in the ass and this is the trap game of all trap games. Is there an upset scenario?

Baver: Definitely the biggest trap game of the year. The wind in Memorial Stadium can make life hell on a QB. It’s hard to gauge what you’re going to get from the Illini. They played Iowa, Wisconsin and Nebraska tough, but got rolled by North Carolina and Penn State. Illinois is much tougher at home than they are on the road. I tend to think the Barrett-led Buckeyes get their offense back in gear. If OSU does start slow, Urban may choose to button things up, trusting his defense to get it done. I think we’ll know early in this one whether it will be a blowout or an ugly game where Ohio State simply wants to escape with a win.   

Colin: It is assumed that JTB's return will cure all that ails the offense. Is it really that simple or are we expecting too much?

Baver: It’s not that simple, but his return is going to help this offense leaps and bounds. But the Bucks are still hurting (literally) at WR and the O-line is still not performing up to expectations. We’ll obviously learn a lot more about this offense a week from Saturday when Sparty comes to town.  

Colin: How does this year's defense compare with the great Buckeye defenses of the past 25 years? Top, bottom or middle of the pack?

Baver: I think it’s definitely in the top tier, but it’s still hard to tell how good they really are with the competition they’ve played so far. 6 of OSU’s first 9 opponents rank outside the top-80 in total offense. Talent wise, I think it’s in the top 3 at a minimum. And Bosa is one of the top 2 or 3 defenders I have seen play here.

Colin: Zeke's Heisman door is opening a little wider each week. Is it his to lose now?

Baver: The oddsmakers still have Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry as the favorites, but it’s tightening up with Zeke continuing to rack up 100+ yds every game. And the Bucks had a tailback win the Heisman in 1955, 1975 and 1995, so Zeke’s gotta keep the 20-year rule alive, right? Of note, teams have stacked the box all year to stop Zeke, yet Bama didn’t sell out at all to stop the run and still held Fournette to 31 yards.

Colin: Speaking of rising stars, Tom Herman is burning bright right now. Forget about open jobs, what are the chances a big school like LSU, Georgia or Texas, decides to make a move and nab him before it's too late?

Baver: I don’t think Miles is going anywhere at LSU but Richt is probably out at year’s end and Charlie Strong is on thin ice. I wasn’t ready to go this far a month ago, but the big time programs are now ready to hire Herman. If Richt is indeed out at year-end, Herman has to be near the top of their candidate list.

Colin: Give us an update on your picks to date and what game and lines will you be watching this weekend?

Baver: I had the #’s wrong last week, but these should be right: 18-8-1 against the spread, including 7-2 ATS on the Ohio State games. I like the Bucks laying the 16 1/2 this week. It’s a trap game but it’s the second lowest Buckeye spread of the year next to Va Tech. I like the Bucks 38-17. I think Minnesota will be out of gas after playing Michigan and Ohio State the last two weeks, so I like Iowa at home laying the 11 1/2 against the Gophers. And I like Stanford -10 at home against Oregon. I usually like the dogs, but I see no underdog that jumps out at me this week.

Can Cardale Keep the Offense Humming Against the Gophers? Baver Has Your Answers.

Colin: Will Urban go back to running the "Cardale" offense which struggled or maybe incorporate some of JTB's package which seems much better suited for this collection?

Baver: I think you’ll see a mix of an offense tailored toward Cardale and maybe some of what we’ve seen with JTB, save the read option. I hate to dis Cardale….I am rooting for the guy, and the so-called fans that boo him in The ‘Shoe are pathetic. You asked earlier in the year… something along the lines of: is Cardale’s confidence going to hold up to criticism, with fans clamoring for JTB? I said at the time that I thought Cardale’s confidence would be fine, but I don’t think it is right now. I see a guy that has lost a lot of confidence. I hope I am wrong.

Colin: Is Cardale capable of running the read option?

Baver: Not really; it’s not his game, although they still may run it on occasion with Cardale.

Colin: Does Braxton finally throw a forward pass this week?

Baver: My guess is yes. Beck and Urban were probably saving Braxton’s first pass for the Sparty game, but I think they are going to have to utilize Braxton more this week with Barrett being held out.

Colin: Minnesota lit up the vaunted Michigan defense last week. Are the Gophers improving or was it a fluke?

Baver: A little of both. The Jerry Kill retirement added some extra emotion last week. QB Mitch Leidner is going to cause the Buckeye D some problems with his legs. But without David Cobb at TB, the Gopher offense just isn’t the same this year and will have problems moving the ball on Ohio St. On the other side of the ball, Minny’s CB’s (Murray & Lynn) are big time; Cardale needs to be sharp or those guys will make him pay.

Colin: The month of November is shaping up with some epic battles. What three or four games are going to determine who makes the CFP?

Baver: LSU at Bama on Saturday, Sparty at Oh St in 2 wks, Baylor at TCU on Nov 27th, and Notre Dame at Stanford Nov 28th. Those are the 4 biggest gms, but the top four Big 12 teams (Bay, TCU, Okl, Ok St) all play each other in Nov, so it’s gonna be quite the ride in that conference.  

Colin: Give us an update on your picks to date and what games and lines will you be keeping an eye on this weekend?

Baver: 14-6-1 overall against the spread, which includes 6-2 ATS on the Buckeye picks. I think Minniehaha +24 is the play this week; as mentioned above, I think the Buckeye O takes a step back without JT. Hope I am wrong and Cardale lights it up, but I am going to say 31 -13 Ohio State, which means a Minn cover. I like Bama laying the 6 1/2 is against LSU. Fournette, I think, will be (somewhat) held in check and LSU will have problems putting points on the board. Finally, I think you have to take the ‘Noles getting 11 at Clemson. The ‘Noles have had their number and I think they hang tight in this one, no matter who FSU starts at QB. I still think the Tigers win the game, though.

 

What Does the NCP Predict for Tonight's Browns Game: PAIN!

@Northcoastposse was just judged as one of the top five twitter follows by the Cleveland Browns.

Big$:  Ok, it’s pretty clear that I’m a dues-paying member of the Anti-Johnny Coalition. However, I’ve always maintained that our signal-calling Monday FunDay-er was going to find his way onto the field in 2015.

Several Browns fans (who may or may not partake in high-powered psychedelic mind- enhancers) have wondered why it has taken this long for #2 to be #1. Here is a rundown:

- The team is not losing because of Josh McCown.  To play at the level he has with no running game or play-making WR’s has been slightly amazing.  To date, he is the only NFL QB to throw 2 TD’s against the Broncos.  For further perspective, see Aaron Rodgers’ stats against Denver.

- I will reiterate, Mike Pettine’s livelihood depends on results.  Every decision he is going to make is going to be based on the need to win games.  If Johnny gave the Browns the best chance to win, he would play.  Last year, fans were quick to dismiss Johnny’s in-season partying, and late arrival to games.  Eventually, his lifestyle choices culminated in the week 17 debacle where a search team had to be sent to look for him.  The same issues and rumors are swirling and being dismissed in 2015.  Browns fans need to look up the definition of insanity.

- Lastly, the future is bleak for this ramshackle organization.  I’m not sure the front office has any real strategy to keep ticket holders invested into 2016.  The one glimmer they had was to let Josh finish this out and proclaim next year as “The season of Johnny!”  This last-ditch effort becomes D.O.A. if he is exposed (again) in his starts this season.  Don’t be too sure ownership is excited about Manziel seeing the field.

My prediction for Thursday:  To quote the legendary Clubber Lang, “PAIN!”  The NFL is a copycat league, and as coaches and coordinators get axed across the country, pink slips may start getting handed out in Berea early Friday morning. Unfortunately, our good ole boy owner has immunity to such consequences.

As for our weekly LeBron question, I’d play The King at QB against the Bengals. Needless to say, I’m not very excited about Johnny taking the field.