Why Is Michigan Getting So Much Love? Is Harbaugh Nutz? Baver Answers and Picks Some Winners.

Colin: Why Is Michigan getting so much love? Who is their quarterback anyway? 

Baver: Michigan probably deserves more respect than Buckeye fans are giving them. But they need to beat at least one of Ohio State or Sparty on the road this year, two schools that absolutely own them, to deserve the love they are getting. As for the QB, Harbaugh is of course doing things in atypical fashion, not naming a starter in fall camp for the 2nd year in a row. But it looks like Wilton Speight will get the first shot. He played against the Bucks last year and did not impress. It’s either Speight, Houston transfer John O’Korn, or a combination of both of them against Hawaii tomorrow. The Wolverines are suspect at QB, RB & LB, but look strong everywhere else, and actually upgraded with Defensive Coordinators with Don Brown replacing DJ Durkin.

Colin: Harbaugh seems to be acting a little extra crazy these days and a couple of recruits have recently jumped ship. Is his act going to fly or do you think his eccentric behavior could become a problem with recruits sooner than later?

Baver: Colin, usually it’s you shooting from the hip and me sugar coating it. It’s not eccentric behavior; it’s a complete freak show with Harbaugh. I watched his interview with the BTN media guys at the Big Ten Media days…and the guy is out there. He didn’t say anything crazy in that interview, but his facial expressions, his delivery when he talks….he is just a bizarre guy. The guy can coach; I’ll give him that, but his strange ways don’t help him in recruiting.

Colin: How would you rate the Big Ten compared to other conferences? What teams have a shot at making the playoff?

Baver: I think it’s the SEC and then a bit of a drop-off, as much as I hate to admit it. The other four Power Five conferences are all neck and neck in my mind – I could see the Big Ten finishing anywhere from 2nd to 5th in terms of conference computer ratings at year-end. I think Michigan and Ohio State have legit shots at the playoff, and maybe even Sparty. But Sparty isn’t going to win any tie-breakers from the committee after laying the egg they laid against Bama in last year’s playoff. Iowa has a longer shot at the playoff, but does play all of their big games at home

Colin: If Pencilstorm could send you to cover five games anywhere in the country this season, which five would you pick?

Baver: I don’t need to necessarily leave Columbus for all of ‘em do I?  Because OSU-Michigan in the ‘Shoe goes without saying; LSU-Bama down on the bayou; Clemson-Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium.  Ohio State-Oklahoma in Norman (and I was actually there with my old man in ’83, and remember it like it was yesterday). And Bama-Tennessee in Knoxville. When is my prepaid expense check coming?

Colin: Looking around the country, do you have any dark horse picks for the CFB playoff or do you expect the usual suspects?

Baver: I like Clemson to win it all. On paper, they are a top-3 team in the country (in my mind) and have the easiest road to the title of all the big boys. As a dark horse, I think Louisville is worth a flyer, and I said that before Lamar Jackson put up video game highlights last night. I’ve got Clemson & LSU in the title game. I think this is Les Miles’ best team since his ’07 team that beat Ohio State in the title game. I think Bama’s schedule probably puts them in the loss column twice this year, but it of course wouldn’t shock me to see them win their 5th title in 8 years.

Colin:  Some interesting match ups in week one. Which games will you be keeping and eye on and who would you put $ on if you did that sort of thing? If I remember right, you lit it up against the spread last year, right?

Baver: 24-14-1 against the spread a year ago, but I am due for some duds this year after knocking ‘em down two straight years. I like Florida State laying 4 ½ as the best play on the board. They’ve got so much coming back and Ole Piss is breaking in a new team that won’t be ready in Wk 1. I like Clemson (-7 ½) to win and cover at Auburn, despite Clemson struggling a bit on the road (ATS wise) last year. I like LSU (-11) to roll Wisconsin in Green Bay. And I picked Bowling Green to cover the 28 against our Buckeyes in the OSU Q&A we had, but I think that spread is pretty sharp.

How Do You Attack the OSU Defense? Baver Answers This and More.

Colin: With all these rough road match-ups, is J.T. Barrett the most important QB since Art Schlichter? How hurting are we if he goes down? 

Baver: I'm not sure if we have to go all the way back to Schlichter, but JT is pretty damn important. Joe Burrow would bring a different set of tools to the Buckeye offense. I like Burrow’s upside, but I think the offense would have to change too much if they had to make the switch. Compare that to JT replacing Braxton in 2014 where the two QBs had similar strengths that they brought to the table. You didn't have to revamp the offense much to make that switch. Also you mention the road games…JT was a man possessed in overtime at Penn State in 2014. He had a sprained knee, but no one had any luck convincing him to come out of the game, and I think he willed Ohio State to victory in the two overtime periods.

Colin: How would you attack the OSU defense?  

Baver: Hard to answer at this point with all the new guys, and with Schiano now making the defensive calls. It will probably be the most athletic defense Ohio State has ever fielded. Prevailing wisdom says: run at the speed, as opposed to away from it, right? Oklahoma has two backs custom built to do just that…..Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon…that’s a 235-pound RB backed up by a 226-pounder. And, Ohio State lacks that 310-pound-plus nose tackle that most teams have now a days.

I tend to think OSU's pass D will be the teams #1 strength, with the key defenders being ready to play right out of the shoot. As good as Baker Mayfield is, I am not sure he wants to test OSU’s secondary too much….especially when you have the Perine/Mixon combo to pound away with. 

So, that's at least how I would attack OSU's D if I'm Oklahoma.

Colin: What players do you think will break out on offense? 

Baver: I’ll say the #1 breakout guy will be Curtis Samuel, followed by Noah Brown. I’ve seen enough flashes out of Samuel to take him over Noah Brown, a WR that has one catch in his career here. But you know what “they” are saying once again this August….that Brown has been a beast in practice. The other guy that could get there is Corey Smith, but he again seems to found his way into Urban’s dog house….not a place where I would want to hang out for too long. 

Colin: How does the OSU-Bowling Green game play out? 

Baver: Bowling Green has the best set of LBs in the MAC and may have more success than you might think defending Ohio State's offense. And I think the Buckeyes will replace their defensive stars better than BG will replace their All-MAC departed QB Matt Johnson. If you sync the games over/under (64 1/2) with the 28-point spread , Vegas sees the Bucks winning this one 46-18. Both team totals seem high, and I tend to think OSU will commit some turnovers on offense with 8 new starters. My best guess is Ohio State wins by an approx score of 38-14…so I have BG covering the 28. Probably smart to stay away from this game though if you are a bettor…just too many first-time starters and too many new (key) coaches for both teams.

Colin: What are your best, worse and most realistic case win totals prediction for this year's Ohio State Football team? 

Baver: 11-1 tops, 8-4 the worst, and 10-2 the most likely scenario.

Are the Buckeyes Headed for a Rough Season? Baver Answers the Question.

Colin: I can't remember the Buckeyes losing this much talent in one season. Everybody assumes we just reload but the 1999 team was set to "reload" with Ken Yon Rambo and Reggie Germany and went 6-6. The 2004 squad featured Troy Smith, A.J. Hawk and Ted Ginn and... started the season with losses in three of their first six games. Why is this team going to be different? Or are they? 

Baver: This year’s team will be better than both of those teams. Troy Smith was not ready to play QB until late 2004, while JT is ready to go right now. In fact, both 1999 and 2004 featured first-year starters at QB. Steve Bellisari was bad all three years that he started here, and was “really” bad in 1999. And need I remind you that Austin Moherman was the starting QB in the 1999 opener?  

But point taken anyway. This “automatically reload” mentality of many OSU fans is over-the-top. It’s going to be ugly at times early on this season, and this team could easily lose three games, maybe more if they can’t catch many breaks. And even if the talent is every bit as good as a Buckeye homer thinks it will be, you don’t just push a button and gain experience overnight.

Colin: To sum up this team in a nutshell, we sent one of the best runners in OSU history to the NFL and have replaced him with a guy who has never played in a college football game. I mean, that has to be a drop off in production, right? 

Baver: Yes, maybe a huge one. And I am taking a wait and see approach on Mike Weber. As much as I hear he is a star in the making, I still hear other whispers that he has a long way to go. I feel much better about replacing Joey Bosa than I do Ezekiel Elliott. You said “one of the best runners” in OSU history….that’s an understatement. I think you can make a strong argument that Zeke is the best back that ever came through here when you think about the run/block/catch combo he brought to the table.

Colin: I'm a big Curtis Samuel fan but sometimes it feels like when a guy gets labeled "best playmaker" that is code for, "we don't have role for him". Any concern Samuel gets lost in the shuffle they way Braxton Miller did at times last year?

Baver: Good point about playmakers and true roles. I have never thought of Samuel as an every down running back and he is certainly not a true wide receiver either. But like you, I like him too....and I am drinking at least some of the Kool-Aid. Lots of talk that Samuel was never really 100% last year, and that he is about to explode. There is so much talent on this team, yet most of the coaches point to Samuel as being the guy most likely to take the next step on the Buckeye offense and special teams.

But, if Samuel does little in these first two tune-up games, this offense could be in for some rough times ahead, against some very good defensive teams on the Buckeye’s schedule this year.

Colin: As you mention, the schedule is rough. Oklahoma game #3 is looming. What areas do we need to square away ASAP to have a shot down in Norman?

Baver: Every offensive position except QB, where OSU should be fine if JT stays healthy. The Sooners have a great secondary, and I don’t think the Buckeye WRs will be fully in sync with JT that early in the season. And Zeke wasn’t really ready in game #3 of 2014; will Mike Weber be in game #3 of 2016? I tend to doubt it. And remember OSU’s young offensive line in game #2 of 2014 against Va Tech? A nightmare. What was it, 7 sacks? Gotta get these things in order very quickly or the Bucks are in big trouble at Oklahoma. 

You didn't ask about the flip side, but I now think the Bucks are in pretty good shape on defense. They will of course have their problems containing Baker Mayfield and Samaje Perine, but so will everyone else on OU's schedule.

MLB Trade Deadline Thoughts - by Brian Phillips

Baseball's non-waiver trade deadline was a mad dash to the finish Monday at 4 eastern. Here are a few thoughts.

Cleveland Indians

No question the Tribe made themselves better. Their deal for closer Andrew Miller can pay off big time in October. Predecessor Cody Allen is decent, but he isn't Miller. When you combine the jolt the pen just received with baseball's best overall rotation you have a championship contender. 

It was a bummer the Indians didn't get Jonathan Lucroy, but they did improve their depth with Rays outfielder Brandon Guyer. Guyer is a lefty killer who also displays a unique talent for getting hit by pitches. He's leading baseball in taking one for the team despite less than full-time at bats. He paced the AL in that category last season as well. Guyer is a middling defender, but his production against southpaws fills a void, no question.

Cincinnati Reds

After many fits and starts, Jay Bruce has finally been traded. Coming back from the New York Mets is infielder Dilson Herrera and lefty Max Wotell. (Has the Reds organization found a Moneyball-like market inefficency in left handed pitching?) Herrera is having a nice year in Triple A, hitting .276 with 13 home runs and 61 RBI. Yes, his walk rate is down, but so is his strike out rate. Scouts say his defense isn't good enough to play short, and he's likely viewed by Reds' brass as a replacement for the aging Brandon Phillips at second. Despite some brief stints in the big leagues in 2014 and 15, Herrera is still just 22.

Wotell is 19 and a 3rd round selection of the Mets in 2015. In his second season of rookie ball Wotell has displayed a nice strikeout rate, but is also wild as hell. You really can't say much about a 19 year old. 

New York Mets

The Mets are hoping they can replicate last season's surge when they added Yoenis Cespedes at the deadline and he went wild, pushing them all the way to the NL Pennent. Bruce is having a great bounce-back year, but this isn't a perfect fit. With sniper glove man Juan Lagares on the DL, they have to mix & match Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto in center with Bruce and Cespedes on the corners. Manager Terry Collins has been known to stick Cespedes in center as well, but that's because Collins is a lovable old dummy. Not to put too fine a point on it, but the Mets outfield defense sucks right now. 

Texas Rangers

There's a rush to go ahead and ticket the Rangers for the World Series, but let's slow our roll here just a hair. Yes, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Beltran give the Rangers' already clicking offense a nice boost, but the Rangers failed to address their rotation at all. (Getting 31 year old Lucas Harrell from the Braves last week does not count.) Cole Hamels is a fine pitcher and so is Yu Darvish. What sort of work load can Darvish handle coming off Tommy John though? A.J. Griffin has been decent, but just off the DL himself. Martin Perez stinks. Does this assemblage beat the Tribe in the ALCS? No way.

Out in the pen they added Brewers closer Jeremy Jeffress. He won't close with Texas, at least not initially. He's had a decent year, but his strike out rate is pretty lame for a 9th inning guy.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are going to send Aaron Sanchez to the bullpen soon to save his arm and with that they've sent their hopes for a deep playoff run away with him. Sanchez is the real deal. Francisco Liriano (Pirates), Mike Bolsinger (Dodgers) and Scott Feldman (Astros) are not. 

As an aside, the Blue Jays gave up on Drew Hutchison yesterday, shipping him off to Pittsburgh in the Lirano deal. Yes he is frustrating, but he's still only 25 and has displayed great strike out stuff in the past. Pirates pitcher whisperer Ray Searage can't wait to get his hands on him, I guarantee you that. 

Los Angeles Dodgers

L.A. finally had enough of of Yasiel Puig's tired act and lack of production and acquired outfielder Josh Reddick and pitcher Rich Hill from trader Billy Beane and the A's. Reddick has some wallop from the left side, but what the Dodgers are hoping for most is a return to defensive form. Speaking of hope, if L.A. can somehow squeeze two months of starts and the post season out of oft-injured Rich Hill they'll be ecstatic. Hill is currently fighting a blister. Without Clayton Kershaw for an unknown period though the Dodgers will kneel and pray for Hill. 

San Francisco Giants

People are ripping the Matt Moore deal, but I still think Moore can be a really good major league pitcher. At 27 he's still youngish and pitching in that chilly and mammoth park out on the Bay can't hurt. Still, Matt Duffy and minor leagers were a lot to give to the Rays. 

Baltimore Orioles

I'm not sure what they're thinking bringing in Wade Miley from Seattle. Miley has shown flashes including this past Saturday in Chicago, but he's gotten pulverized this year too giving up an alarming 1.45 home runs per nine. Some of that is bad luck, but some of that is a 7% jump in hard hit rate. That won't play in Camden Yards at all. Still he's better than Ubaldo Jimenez I suppose. I'm better than Ubaldo Jimenez. 

New York Yankees

I won't pretend to be close to an expert on prospects, but I do know it was time. Time for the Yankees to bite the bullet and commit themselves to a real, lasting, youth movement. Hey they see the Red Sox all the time with Betts, Bradley Junior, etc contributing at their tender ages. The Cubs no doubt have made an impact on their thinking as well. You can't win by going shopping every January any more, not with every other club locking up their top young talent through their most productive years. The Yanks are living with that dumb A. Rod contract every day. Buying a team is over. Developing and keeping your own talent is the way. Stocking up by trading relief pitchers is brilliant. Smartest thing I've seen the Yankees do in a long time. You can find kids that throw 100 miles per hour and besides you kept Dillon Betances who is a straight- up witch. 

Seattle Mariners

Sigh. Another year sliding into the abyss. Oh well, almost Seahawks time!

Brian Phillips the morning drive time DJ for CD102.5 FM in Columbus, OH. He plays in three fantasy baseball leagues. 

Youth Baseball Coaches Rejoice! The Cut Off Man Just Saved the College World Series - by Colin G.

I'm not really a coach. I know what a real coach looks like and I'm not it. I've had the privilege of watching my son flourish under amazing coaches who donate their time and efforts in the most selfless manner possible.

However, due to the fact that I can usually make baseball practice since I can leave the coffee shop early, and I can throw a decent BP session, I've sorta been drafted to help with Owen's baseball team the last few years. It's fun to hang around the guys and impart a little baseball wisdom once and a while. 

Things like: run out every hit no matter what, make sure to call a pop-up with a loud, "Mine!", and of course, the doozy of them all...

THROW IT TO THE CUT OFF MAN!!!!!!!!

Nobody will ever yell at you for throwing a ball directly to the cut off man. Sure, there "might" be a better play, but if there is ANY doubt, immediately throw it to the cut off man. 

Still, after preaching this mantra hundreds, if not thousands of times over years of practice, what do kids still do after they chase down a long fly ball in the gap? Their eyes get wide and they just stand there, pumping the ball for five long seconds while every coach on the team is screaming in unison, "THROW IT TO THE CUT OFF MAN!" 

I know they are just kids, and I'm in no way singling out any one player, I've seen them all do it... but sometimes.... my inner dialogue.....

(put down that joystick, pull your head out of your ass and just throw it to the frigging cut off man! How hard is that?? As I mentally imagine destroying the dugout with a bat and kids running all directions screaming and crying. But I just swallow hard and keep my mouth shut.)

Well today, in the biggest moment of the biggest college baseball game of the season, the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers executed a picture perfect throw to the cut off man, stranding the tying run by the Arizona Wildcats at 3rd base in the 9th inning of a one run game. The next batter struck out and CCU had a College World Series championship in their very first trip to Omaha.

And it was all due to somebody hitting the cutoff man. A sweet day for youth baseball coaches all over the world.

Check out the play below at about 1:13.  Colin G.