Baver Gives Odds on Which Buckeyes Stay and Go + Penn State Thoughts.

Colin: The youngest team in the country has already had two road night wins against highly ranked opponents. How impressed should we be? 

Baver: I think you really have to be impressed with the heart that this young team showed in the 2nd half and OT on a night when Ohio State clearly didn’t have its best stuff in Madison. It was Wisconsin’s night…and Ohio State took it from them. As for the way the Bucks jumped on Oklahoma from the get-go and never looked back, that was certainly impressive too. Young teams aren’t supposed to do this.

Colin: Bucky Badger took advantage of their bye week and really seemed to have our young D confused in the 1st half. What was working for them and should we expect Penn State to try something similar?

Baver: The jet sweep, that’s for sure. The Buckeye corners seemed to react slowly to the play, even after Wisconsin had run it several times. One tweet I saw summed it up: “Jazz Peavy jet sweep, rinse, repeat.” Peavy ran 6 jet sweeps for 70 yards. It wasn’t until the 5th time the Badgers ran it that Ohio State stopped it for shorter than an 8-yard gain. Wisconsin also hit their TE Troy Fumagalli 7 times for 80+ yards in total. Thankfully, Penn State has no one to run the jet sweep like Peavy and PSU’s TE Mike Gesicki has modest numbers so far this season.   

Colin: At any point in the game did you think we were going to lose? 

Baver: Yes…at halftime, I thought we were probably staring at a loss. And when Wisconsin had the 11-play, 81-yard drive to take back the lead in the middle of the fourth quarter, I had my doubts.

Colin: Other than JT having ice water in his veins, our offense still seems to struggle with an identity. What is our offensive identity? 

Baver: I agree. For the most part, the read option is still Ohio State’s identity, and JT runs it very well. But, as everyone has been saying….at some point, this offense is going to have to throw the ball down field. And I wouldn’t expect to see much down field passing in Happy Valley with the forecast calling for ridiculous winds.

Colin: Penn State took our 2014 National Championship team to OT last trip to Happy Valley. Could we be forgetting how tough it is to play there at night? 

Baver: I think the Bucks got a pretty good wakeup call at Camp Randall, not to mention the wakeup call they got in Happy Valley in 2014. So, no…I don’t think so.

Colin: You are heading to the game. What is your favorite and least favorite thing about attending a game at Happy Valley? 

Baver: How ‘bout just some good and some bad?

Even though that program has been down, the atmosphere in that stadium is big time. The white out, the noise level, the intensity….the place rocks. In 2014, when PSU had the pick-6 early in the 2nd half that turned the game around, the place was insane….and it was insane/crazy until the final play when Bosa blew up the PSU O-lineman and Christian Hackenberg simultaneously. It’s what college football is all about.

On the flip side, while we were treated very well in State College by almost all of the Penn State fans in 2014…2005 was brutal. Ohio State was of course a few years removed from a Nat’L Title and a group of kids were relentless in harassing us all day long. One climbed up on a Buckeye fan’s RV trying to tear down his Buckeye flag. That was also the year the OSU band had bags full of urine thrown at them. It was pretty hardcore.  

Colin: I know it still feels like the season has only started, but are there any rumblings about Buckeyes who might already be thinking about playing in the NFL next year? 

Baver: Word on the street is that everyone that you think might consider leaving early is considering leaving early….and everyone that you wouldn’t think could make the early jump is considering making the early jump. My best guess at handicapping the OSU underclassmen that are draft eligible, based on what I am hearing…

Likelihood of leaving after the season:

Malik Hooker: 75% (draft eligible sophomore)

Raekwon McMillan: 60%

Marshon Lattimore: 50% (draft eligible sophomore)

Gareon Conley: 50%

JT Barrett: 40%

Curtis Samuel: 35%

Sam Hubbard: 35% (draft eligible sophomore)

Jamarco Jones: 25%

Billy Price: 15%

Tyquan Lewis: 15%

Noah Brown: 15%

Chris Worley: 10%

Michael Hill: 10%

Marcus Baugh: 10%

Colin: Give us an update on your picks so far and other games you will be keeping an eye on this weekend?

Baver: 10-12 against the spread. I saw that the great Phil Steele went 0-9 against the spread last week…so I am feeling a little better about my numbers. Too many points in Happy Valley. The Nits have a bye and the Bucks are of course off the emotional/physical game at Camp Randall. I like the Bucks 28-14, and the Nits +19 ½ is a good play. I like TCU catching 6 on the road at West by God. The ‘Eers luck finally runs out against a more talented TCU team that will thrive on the underdog role. And, okay, I’ll bite…I like the Aggies getting 18 at Alabama. Bama is the best team in the land and if they play their game, they will smack A&M….but Bama is prime for a letdown, and 18 is a lot of points.

Tailgate w/ The League Bowlers @ Four String Brew Before the Battle of Ohio

Big $ and K-Dubs the Soldier - collectively known as The North Coast Posse - have been slogging through blogging another tough Browns season. To cheer them up, Pencilstorm will be throwing a pre-game party at Four String Brew (985 W. 6th 43212) Sunday October 23rd. As always, The League Bowlers (featuring Four String Founder Dan Cochran on the four-string) will provide the tunage. People start staggering in around 11:30 am and the Bowlers play at noon. Kickoff 1 pm. 

Fans of the Browns, Bengals, Day Drinking and Rock n Roll are all encouraged to attend. Admission is FREE. 

Kick Off Party with Carl Rose Jr, (The League Bowlers), Big $, Neil Sika, and K-Dubs The Soldier. @ Four String Brew. Next party Sunday Oct 23rd. Doors 11am. Music at Noon. FREE.

Will Buckeyes Again Make Bucky Badger Their B---- ? Baver Answers Colin's Questions

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Colin: For a team that constantly brags about how much depth and talent they have on offense, why does JT have to carry such a heavy workload against an underdog as Indiana?

Baver: I think it’s an Urban thing (as opposed to Warriner or Beck). It’s been this way since Urban arrived. And there have been a handful of post-games where Urban basically admitted that they ran the QB too much, and didn’t run the tailback enough. Seems like the common themes in these games are: (1) The game is in doubt or closer than it should be, and (2) Urban’s QB isn’t throwing the ball well. Those were certainly the themes against Indiana. But one would have thought they would have gotten Curtis Samuel involved more….it’s big mystery why they didn’t.

Colin: Along the same lines, Indiana used a lot of press coverage and disrespected our WRs ability to beat them one on one. Could this formula work again this week against the Badgers?

Baver: Yeah, I don’t think Wisconsin is going to respect Ohio State’s X and Y receivers…and there’s really no reason to right now. It seems like Noah Brown can’t stay healthy and doesn’t have the speed to beat a DB down field, maybe because of the injuries. The Buckeyes are going to have to have at least some success throwing downfield Saturday night, or they could be in trouble.

Colin: Still, our young D is looking surprisingly strong, how many points can Wisconsin expect to put up on the Bucks without fluky conditions or turnovers?

Baver: If weather plays little to no factor in the game, I would think the Buckeyes hold Wisconsin to 21 or less. Looking at the Vegas spread and over/under, the sportsbooks have the Badgers scoring about 17 pts….sounds ballpark to me. The emergence of Jerome Baker and Nick Bosa is starting to make this Buckeye defense downright scary, and Wisconsin’s offense is anything but scary.

Colin: Camp Randall at night is a bitch. As nice as the Sooners win was, this is a different beast. Especially considering the last time we met, the Bucks won the Big 10 title 59-0 despite entering as underdogs. AND..ESPN Game day is in Madison and all that hype. So on a scale of 1 -10, how tough of a road environment is Camp Randall?

Baver: I’d say 9 ½ outta 10. It’s right up there with Clemson Memorial Stadium and Tiger Stadium (LSU)….maybe a hair behind those two. In terms of the NFL, I’d say Camp Randall is on par with Lambeau Field and CenturyLink Field in Seattle. I don’t think this Buckeye team rattles easily, but if there is a place where that can happen….it’s Camp Randall.

Colin: So final thoughts on the game?

Baver: I’ve stopped doubting Urban period. When you dive into the matchup, i.e. OSU’s run game vs Wisc run D, vice versa, etc…..I think it’s easy to come away thinking this game is a toss-up. But I think 80% of the big plays Saturday night will be made by the scarlet and gray….just too much athleticism on the OSU side. And I don’t think many fans realize what a weapon Cameron Johnson has become, and how much “flipping the field” works in the Buckeye’s favor. I see Ohio State rising to the occasion….I like the Bucks 34-17.

Colin: What other games and lines will you be watching this weekend?

Baver: I’ve made a nice little comeback, hitting 5 of my last 6 to bring me to 9-10 on the season ATS, including hitting the last 3 Buckeye games. With the Madison weather forecast looking not-so-bad as of Thursday night, I think you take the Buckeyes and lay the 10 ½. I think Tennessee may fall apart this week after finally losing a close game…I like Bama laying the 12 ½ in Knoxville. And I like Texas Tech catching a point at home against West Virginia. I think Tech will have added motivation facing a 4-0 Mountaineer team.

Big $ Guarantees Cleveland Victory Against Pats and Amin ElHassan

follow @northcoastposse    The NCP are a top five Browns twitter follow.

So at NCP headquarters, we've faced a barrage of questions about phantom fumbles, ridiculous pass interference calls, and maddening taunt flags.

My response: We're onto New England

The time for "woe is me" attitudes and desperation died on 6/19/16 (or earlier if you're a Stipe truther like myself). Kyrie stabbed the curse straight through its black heart and left it to die on the streets of San Francisco. From here on, tough luck is just that, tough freaking luck.

Along those lines, growing pains and bumps in the road should be expected with a team this young who just had to thrust a rookie 3rd string qb in to action light years before he was ready. I'm also not altogether sure that a year of learning experiences isn't better in the long run for this team than a freak wild card appearance.

This is not the Johnny/Farmer era, it's not D.A. and a bunch of 1st round divas (sorry K Dub). Hell, it's not even the Holcomb/Green squad. This is a young, well-coached team with a purpose. The turning point is near and when it gets here , Brian Billick can kiss my a**.

So with that said, I'm going to put my $ where mouth is and GUARANTEE A BROWNS VICTORY against the mighty Pats this Sunday.

I urge other Browns fans to leave the curse deep in the rear view mirror and jump on this bandwagon. The payoff is coming and it's gonna be sweet.

.....Now to address the D-lister in the room

Mr. Amin ElHassan (@AminESPN ) continued his shade parade on the city of Cleveland, and this week even decided to take shots at me and little ole Pencilstorm.com. Let me remind Mr. ElHAssan, that he is a stubbed toe away from emailing the powers here at the 'Storm begging for a spot covering CSU hoops. He is not exactly an ESPN institution, nor is he particularly good at his job ( see his 2016 NBA  Eastern Conference playoff picks).

He should spend more time thanking the Good Lord, that @stugotz790 allows him to muck up his show every few weeks in the winter and less time trolling Ohioans.

With that, I say good day and Go Browns

Big $ is one half of the North Coast Posse. K-Dubs was off this week as it was his turn to host the Pencilstorm tailgate before Browns v Pats.

Is Indiana a Trap Game for OSU? Baver Answers

Colin: Anything noteworthy about the destruction of Rutgers or just business as usual?

Baver: Not much to report….almost flawless domination after the first 5 minutes of the game. Schiano knows how to make the right adjustments rather quickly. Rutgers is horrible, but it’s still pretty amazing how dominant this Buckeye team has been this early on with all the talent lost from last year’s squad.

Colin: Is anybody going to be able to touch JT Barrett's records when he is all finished at OSU?

Baver: If Barrett stays healthy and comes back for ’17, his career records are going to be ridiculous. Hell, they’ll be ridiculous without a 4th year. But, as long as Urban Meyer is here, and as long as the rules don’t change to slow down tempo offenses, I’d say no Ohio State offensive records are safe.

Colin: The Big 12 plays ZERO defense and Oklahoma gave up 49 points last week to TCU. Does this take some luster off of our win? 

Baver: I think’s a win’s a win…and that one was against a Top 25 team on the road. Let’s just hope Oklahoma doesn’t screw around and lose to a very bad Texas team again.  

Colin: On to this week's game. Indiana gave us fits last year, is coming off a win over Sparty and the Bucks have a huge road game at Wisconsin next week. Isn't this the textbook recipe for a trap game?

Baver: Yep…and the Buckeyes are overdue to show some chinks in the armor….every team does at some point, even Bama. I don’t think this one goes down to the wire like last year, but I tend to think Indiana hangs around awhile like they normally do against Ohio State.

Colin: As talented as this team is, history shows that going undefeated is extremely rare and young teams do have let downs. What remaining games are you most concerned about? 

Baver: Wisconsin and Michigan. I’m afraid many of the players may think they can just waltz into Camp Randall and hammer Wisconsin at night like they did Oklahoma on the road. Maybe that will happen, but that place is going to be a lot crazier than Norman was, and Urban now has to keeps egos in check. The Michigan game will be tighter this year, I believe. I think Ohio State hammers Sparty in East Lansing.

Colin: Nationally, which teams are the best and/or worst match up should the Bucks make the playoff?

Baver: Alabama has had their fair share of problems against mobile QBs in the past, so JT Barrett could cause them some problems. On the flip side, I think Bama’s power/run game could be a problem for OSU. I’d much rather play a team that leans on an air attack over the run, as I think the Buckeye pass D is second to none. But overall, I think this Buckeye team is diverse, and when you give Meyer extra time to prepare, I think this team matches up favorably against anyone.

Colin: Give us an update on your picks to date and what games/lines will you be keeping an eye on this weekend?

Baver: Got 2 out of 3 last week to bring my stellar record on the year to 6-10; how ‘bout that? I like Ohio State 35-14, pulling away in the 2nd half. So Indiana plus the 29 is probably the wise play. Rutgers is in for their 2nd beatdown in as many games, and maybe another shutout. Take Michigan laying the 29 ½ at Rutgers. Brady Hoke has not been the answer as Oregon’s new DC, as Oregon’s D still can’t stop anybody. Washington takes a hammer to Oregon in Eugene…take the Huskies and lay the 9 there.

What Francona Can Learn from Buck's Britton Blunder - by Colin Gawel

I recently finished the book "Ahead of the Curve - Inside the Baseball Revolution" by Brian Kenny. It was one of the best books on baseball I have ever read. It lays waste to old school baseball thinking - that in light of new information - just doesn't make sense anymore. I could go on and on, and if you have had the misfortune of sitting next to me in the past month, chances are I have gone on and on about dispelling one baseball myth after another. But for the purposes of this tidy essay, let's focus on just two ways "conventional" baseball wisdom hurts a team's chance to win: bullpen use and the preference of "Starting Pitchers" to "Bullpenning." 

Tuesday night, Orioles manager Buck Showalter left his best pitcher - the top relief pitcher in all of baseball, Zach Britton - on the bench to watch inferior O's pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez give up a game-winning 3 run HR in the bottom of the 13th inning. The Orioles season was over and their best pitcher never even got in the game. Or - to put it another way - Jimenez gave up 3 runs in that one inning, Britton only gave up 4 runs ALL SEASON. 

Now, Showalter is a fine manager and fairly progressive-thinking one at that, so I apologize for singling him out, but he fell victim to the myth of saving his best pitcher to close out the game once they had a lead. I won't bore you with numbers, but it is a fact that the moment when the game is on the line could be the 4th inning or 9th or 13th. The situation dictates the level of importance. Somehow, it has become conventional thinking that you save your closer for the end. Managers rarely take heat for this poor strategy (or bunting for that matter) so they continue to do it. This time, at least people are questioning Buck's decision, which shows a little progress from the sports media concerning baseball analytics.

In fact, one day, in the not too distant future, the baseball dugout will have an "Analytics" coach that simply runs the numbers and tells the manager, "the computer says now is the best time to put in Britton", no matter what the inning.  This not only will increase the team's chances for victory but provide a scapegoat for the manager if the move backfires. "I went with the nerd on that decision so why don't you ask him?" It's sort of like an offensive coordinator in football, a little fire wall between the head coach and unemployment line. 

Kenny points out in his book that using relievers in such a narrow fashion is unique to the past twenty years. In the '70's teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and A's would regularly insert their "Closers": Sparky Lyle, Mike Marshall and Rollie Fingers as early as the 4th inning. It's called the "Fireman Of the Year" award because these guys would put out fires. Not just pitch the 9th with a three-run lead and nobody on base. The top relief pitchers in baseball as recently as the '80's all pitched around 120 innings a year. Now it's down to about 70. Do the math, that's a lot of innings thrown by inferior pitchers. But easy saves make for big money and both players and agents get behind that. Less work and less stress for more pay? Sign me up. 

So what does this have to do with Terry Francona and the Cleveland Indians? With injuries to their pitching staff, the Tribe have turned to their own "Nuke LaLoosh," Trevor Bauer to start Game One against the far superior line-up of the Boston Red Sox. Trevor has good stuff but often comes unglued if he feels an umpire has missed a call. (Which happens all too often and can be fixed, but that's another story for a different time.) With Indians ace Corey Kluber set to pitch Game Two at home in Cleveland, a game one win would be huge. 

What we know for sure: every time a pitcher goes through a line-up, the next time around batters have more success; a third time even more. Once again, I'm not going to trot out numbers, it's just math. "Bullpenning" is a concept where no pitcher throws more than 75 innings and you make the opposing line-up face a new pitcher each time they bat around. In a perfect world, the Tribe would start their 3rd best reliever, bring in Baurer in the 4th and then go straight to their best pitcher, Andrew Miller, to close out the game from the 7th on. 

I know that scenario is too mind blowing for the 2016 baseball fan so I would suggest this. I would let Bauer go through the line-up one time and after that he would be on a very short leash. At the first sign of real trouble, go immediately to your best arm, Andrew Miller. Then work it out from there. If the Tribe can bullpen their way to a win in game one, you hand the ball to a true starting pitcher in game two. And Francona better tell Miller to plan on pitching both days. He is a grown man. He can handle it. The series takes an off day on Saturday.

Terry Francona is a smart cookie himself and has already been using Miller to get the important outs while using league average closer Cody Reed to mop up in the 9th inning. (click here to read the story) But sometimes, in the post season spotlight, progressive-thinking managers revert to conservative ways and in the blink of an eye, the season is lost. Look no further than Buck Showalter for proof of that. 

Colin Gawel wrote this at Colin's Coffee when he probably should have been cleaning. He loves playoff baseball but rarely sees the end of the games because they start and end too late.