Pencilstorm's 2016 NBA Preview: Part 1 - Western Conference by Ben Galli

I’d rather just write about J.R. Smith’s summer adventures in this column but unfortunately the media can’t talk about it.  Something about too much swag.  Is that still a thing now?  Figured they didn’t want anything to overshadow the election.

But fear not, for I will incorporate J.R. Smith in a myriad other ways as I present Pencilstorm’s 2016 NBA Preview.

I’ll countdown the worst to the best teams in each conference, starting with the Western Conference, where the last 2 league MVP’s both blew 3-1 series leads and then decided to join forces.  I haven’t seen that much choking on a team since, well, the Cubs and Indians last played in a World Series*.  

*Look, I'm old but I'm not "alive in 1945" old.  I substitute the 2003 NLCS for the Cubs example.

I'll be discussing what to look for on each team this year and will also rate the team's Excitement level using a thoroughly scientific grading scale of J.R. Smiths.

So shall we begin.

Western Conference

15. Phoenix Suns

15. The Suns will watch Devin Booker elevate to stardom under 1st year head coach and former UCLA point guard Earl Watson.  They hope rookie Dragan Bender lives up to his cool name but they are years away from making any real noise.  

14. Denver Nuggets

14. This ranking could be too low for this year's Nuggets who have a good coach in Mike Malone.  Point guard Emmanuel Mudiay could make a jump in his second year and promising center Nikola Jokic led Serbia to the Olympic silver medal this summer. 

13. Los Angeles Lakers

13.  It is yet to be determined if 36 year old perennial dude Luke Walton is the next great coach or just a stoner with a heart of gold.  D'Angelo Russell has been impressive in the preseason and rookie Brandon Ingram will most likely come off the bench, tempering comparisons to a young Kevin Durant.

12. Sacramento Kings

12. It's Boogie Cousins and hardly anything else.  The Kings are rivaling perhaps no one in a class of their own when it comes to dysfunctional management.  DeMarcus Cousins is one of the best players in the league but is starting his 7th season under his 6th different head coach.  

11. New Orleans Pelicans

11. I don't see the Pellies making a huge jump this year but I do see Anthony Davis re-establishing himself as the next great superstar, taking some thunder from a Mr. Karl-Anthony Towns.  

10. Houston Rockets

10. New coach Mike D'Antoni plans to play James Harden at the point, something he kinda does anyway from time to time.  It's his team now with Dwight Howard off to hometown Atlanta.  Is Harden truly a great? Can he carry this team to the playoffs?  Does he have a face under his beard?

9. Utah Jazz

9. The Jazz are Gordon Hayward's team.  I'm not buying him as the best player on a viable contender.  I have the Jazz missing the playoffs yet again in the stacked Western Conference.  Former 5th overall pick Dante Exum should finally see some solid minutes and must prove he's not a bust.

8.Dallas  Mavericks

8.  I believe this is Dirk Nowitzki's swan song.  Incredible career for the greatest European player of all time.  Along with Rick Carlisle, I think this motivates and pushes the Mavs into the playoffs.  

7. Minnesota Timberwolves

7. Excitement and Minnesota don't always go hand in hand.  This year is different.  With Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins leading the way with some athletic pieces surrounding them, the Wolves will make a jump this year.  They're one of the most exciting young teams to watch in the league.

6. Memphis Grizzlies

6. A new coach in David Fizdale and Zach Randolph coming off the bench but the rest remains the same in Memphis.  Marc Gasol is back and Mike Conley Jr. has 153 million dollars to live up to.  They'll be solid yet again but time is running out on any championship aspirations.  

5. Portland Trail Blazers

5. The Trail Blazers are in the Pacific Northwest which might as well be Alaska for how far away they are from media attention.  Led by Dame D.O.L.L.A., better known as Damian Lillard, and C.J. McCollum, the Blazers are more exciting than most people know.  Having added former 2nd overall pick and OSU star, Evan Turner, the Blazers are hungry for more playoff success.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder

4. The Oklahoma City Thunder are now officially Russell Westbrook's team and there couldn't be greater news to the ears of NBA fans.  Sure, the Thunder lost one of the best players of all time in Kevin Durant but don't count this team out yet.  Westbrook is on a mission, seeking vengeance, and he's the scariest player in the entire league.  

3. Los Angeles Clippers

3. Since Chris Paul got to L.A. (not the L.A. team he was supposed to go to, damn you David Stern), the Clippers have been a force to be reckoned with but they've never put it quite together.  They hope to have a healthier Blake Griffin back and they're gonna give it another go with mostly the same lineup as last year.  They have talent, but probably not enough to win the West.  And time is running out with both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin able to test free agency after this year.

2. San Antonio Spurs

2. For the first time in about 20 years, the Spurs will step onto the court without that familiar number 21, Tim Duncan.  And they'll be fine.  Duncan was pretty solid in his later years but the Spurs had been planning for this for some time now.  There's been some rumors of a rift with LaMarcus Aldridge but he's quieted those and should be a big piece for the team most likely to challenge Golden State in the West.

1. Golden State Warriors

1. Golden State replaced Harrison Barnes with Kevin Durant.  That's like replacing Jim Belushi with John.  This team is going to be incredibly fun to watch.  Countless fans will struggle the whole season desperately wanting to hate the new super villain in town yet not being able to resist the beautiful basketball being played.  Durant signed with the Warriors for "basketball reasons" and he will fit in absolutely perfectly on this roster which may very well be the best offense in NBA history.  

Baver Gives Odds on Which Buckeyes Stay and Go + Penn State Thoughts.

Colin: The youngest team in the country has already had two road night wins against highly ranked opponents. How impressed should we be? 

Baver: I think you really have to be impressed with the heart that this young team showed in the 2nd half and OT on a night when Ohio State clearly didn’t have its best stuff in Madison. It was Wisconsin’s night…and Ohio State took it from them. As for the way the Bucks jumped on Oklahoma from the get-go and never looked back, that was certainly impressive too. Young teams aren’t supposed to do this.

Colin: Bucky Badger took advantage of their bye week and really seemed to have our young D confused in the 1st half. What was working for them and should we expect Penn State to try something similar?

Baver: The jet sweep, that’s for sure. The Buckeye corners seemed to react slowly to the play, even after Wisconsin had run it several times. One tweet I saw summed it up: “Jazz Peavy jet sweep, rinse, repeat.” Peavy ran 6 jet sweeps for 70 yards. It wasn’t until the 5th time the Badgers ran it that Ohio State stopped it for shorter than an 8-yard gain. Wisconsin also hit their TE Troy Fumagalli 7 times for 80+ yards in total. Thankfully, Penn State has no one to run the jet sweep like Peavy and PSU’s TE Mike Gesicki has modest numbers so far this season.   

Colin: At any point in the game did you think we were going to lose? 

Baver: Yes…at halftime, I thought we were probably staring at a loss. And when Wisconsin had the 11-play, 81-yard drive to take back the lead in the middle of the fourth quarter, I had my doubts.

Colin: Other than JT having ice water in his veins, our offense still seems to struggle with an identity. What is our offensive identity? 

Baver: I agree. For the most part, the read option is still Ohio State’s identity, and JT runs it very well. But, as everyone has been saying….at some point, this offense is going to have to throw the ball down field. And I wouldn’t expect to see much down field passing in Happy Valley with the forecast calling for ridiculous winds.

Colin: Penn State took our 2014 National Championship team to OT last trip to Happy Valley. Could we be forgetting how tough it is to play there at night? 

Baver: I think the Bucks got a pretty good wakeup call at Camp Randall, not to mention the wakeup call they got in Happy Valley in 2014. So, no…I don’t think so.

Colin: You are heading to the game. What is your favorite and least favorite thing about attending a game at Happy Valley? 

Baver: How ‘bout just some good and some bad?

Even though that program has been down, the atmosphere in that stadium is big time. The white out, the noise level, the intensity….the place rocks. In 2014, when PSU had the pick-6 early in the 2nd half that turned the game around, the place was insane….and it was insane/crazy until the final play when Bosa blew up the PSU O-lineman and Christian Hackenberg simultaneously. It’s what college football is all about.

On the flip side, while we were treated very well in State College by almost all of the Penn State fans in 2014…2005 was brutal. Ohio State was of course a few years removed from a Nat’L Title and a group of kids were relentless in harassing us all day long. One climbed up on a Buckeye fan’s RV trying to tear down his Buckeye flag. That was also the year the OSU band had bags full of urine thrown at them. It was pretty hardcore.  

Colin: I know it still feels like the season has only started, but are there any rumblings about Buckeyes who might already be thinking about playing in the NFL next year? 

Baver: Word on the street is that everyone that you think might consider leaving early is considering leaving early….and everyone that you wouldn’t think could make the early jump is considering making the early jump. My best guess at handicapping the OSU underclassmen that are draft eligible, based on what I am hearing…

Likelihood of leaving after the season:

Malik Hooker: 75% (draft eligible sophomore)

Raekwon McMillan: 60%

Marshon Lattimore: 50% (draft eligible sophomore)

Gareon Conley: 50%

JT Barrett: 40%

Curtis Samuel: 35%

Sam Hubbard: 35% (draft eligible sophomore)

Jamarco Jones: 25%

Billy Price: 15%

Tyquan Lewis: 15%

Noah Brown: 15%

Chris Worley: 10%

Michael Hill: 10%

Marcus Baugh: 10%

Colin: Give us an update on your picks so far and other games you will be keeping an eye on this weekend?

Baver: 10-12 against the spread. I saw that the great Phil Steele went 0-9 against the spread last week…so I am feeling a little better about my numbers. Too many points in Happy Valley. The Nits have a bye and the Bucks are of course off the emotional/physical game at Camp Randall. I like the Bucks 28-14, and the Nits +19 ½ is a good play. I like TCU catching 6 on the road at West by God. The ‘Eers luck finally runs out against a more talented TCU team that will thrive on the underdog role. And, okay, I’ll bite…I like the Aggies getting 18 at Alabama. Bama is the best team in the land and if they play their game, they will smack A&M….but Bama is prime for a letdown, and 18 is a lot of points.

Tailgate w/ The League Bowlers @ Four String Brew Before the Battle of Ohio

Big $ and K-Dubs the Soldier - collectively known as The North Coast Posse - have been slogging through blogging another tough Browns season. To cheer them up, Pencilstorm will be throwing a pre-game party at Four String Brew (985 W. 6th 43212) Sunday October 23rd. As always, The League Bowlers (featuring Four String Founder Dan Cochran on the four-string) will provide the tunage. People start staggering in around 11:30 am and the Bowlers play at noon. Kickoff 1 pm. 

Fans of the Browns, Bengals, Day Drinking and Rock n Roll are all encouraged to attend. Admission is FREE. 

Kick Off Party with Carl Rose Jr, (The League Bowlers), Big $, Neil Sika, and K-Dubs The Soldier. @ Four String Brew. Next party Sunday Oct 23rd. Doors 11am. Music at Noon. FREE.

Will Buckeyes Again Make Bucky Badger Their B---- ? Baver Answers Colin's Questions

Follow @baverbuckeyebag

Colin: For a team that constantly brags about how much depth and talent they have on offense, why does JT have to carry such a heavy workload against an underdog as Indiana?

Baver: I think it’s an Urban thing (as opposed to Warriner or Beck). It’s been this way since Urban arrived. And there have been a handful of post-games where Urban basically admitted that they ran the QB too much, and didn’t run the tailback enough. Seems like the common themes in these games are: (1) The game is in doubt or closer than it should be, and (2) Urban’s QB isn’t throwing the ball well. Those were certainly the themes against Indiana. But one would have thought they would have gotten Curtis Samuel involved more….it’s big mystery why they didn’t.

Colin: Along the same lines, Indiana used a lot of press coverage and disrespected our WRs ability to beat them one on one. Could this formula work again this week against the Badgers?

Baver: Yeah, I don’t think Wisconsin is going to respect Ohio State’s X and Y receivers…and there’s really no reason to right now. It seems like Noah Brown can’t stay healthy and doesn’t have the speed to beat a DB down field, maybe because of the injuries. The Buckeyes are going to have to have at least some success throwing downfield Saturday night, or they could be in trouble.

Colin: Still, our young D is looking surprisingly strong, how many points can Wisconsin expect to put up on the Bucks without fluky conditions or turnovers?

Baver: If weather plays little to no factor in the game, I would think the Buckeyes hold Wisconsin to 21 or less. Looking at the Vegas spread and over/under, the sportsbooks have the Badgers scoring about 17 pts….sounds ballpark to me. The emergence of Jerome Baker and Nick Bosa is starting to make this Buckeye defense downright scary, and Wisconsin’s offense is anything but scary.

Colin: Camp Randall at night is a bitch. As nice as the Sooners win was, this is a different beast. Especially considering the last time we met, the Bucks won the Big 10 title 59-0 despite entering as underdogs. AND..ESPN Game day is in Madison and all that hype. So on a scale of 1 -10, how tough of a road environment is Camp Randall?

Baver: I’d say 9 ½ outta 10. It’s right up there with Clemson Memorial Stadium and Tiger Stadium (LSU)….maybe a hair behind those two. In terms of the NFL, I’d say Camp Randall is on par with Lambeau Field and CenturyLink Field in Seattle. I don’t think this Buckeye team rattles easily, but if there is a place where that can happen….it’s Camp Randall.

Colin: So final thoughts on the game?

Baver: I’ve stopped doubting Urban period. When you dive into the matchup, i.e. OSU’s run game vs Wisc run D, vice versa, etc…..I think it’s easy to come away thinking this game is a toss-up. But I think 80% of the big plays Saturday night will be made by the scarlet and gray….just too much athleticism on the OSU side. And I don’t think many fans realize what a weapon Cameron Johnson has become, and how much “flipping the field” works in the Buckeye’s favor. I see Ohio State rising to the occasion….I like the Bucks 34-17.

Colin: What other games and lines will you be watching this weekend?

Baver: I’ve made a nice little comeback, hitting 5 of my last 6 to bring me to 9-10 on the season ATS, including hitting the last 3 Buckeye games. With the Madison weather forecast looking not-so-bad as of Thursday night, I think you take the Buckeyes and lay the 10 ½. I think Tennessee may fall apart this week after finally losing a close game…I like Bama laying the 12 ½ in Knoxville. And I like Texas Tech catching a point at home against West Virginia. I think Tech will have added motivation facing a 4-0 Mountaineer team.

Big $ Guarantees Cleveland Victory Against Pats and Amin ElHassan

follow @northcoastposse    The NCP are a top five Browns twitter follow.

So at NCP headquarters, we've faced a barrage of questions about phantom fumbles, ridiculous pass interference calls, and maddening taunt flags.

My response: We're onto New England

The time for "woe is me" attitudes and desperation died on 6/19/16 (or earlier if you're a Stipe truther like myself). Kyrie stabbed the curse straight through its black heart and left it to die on the streets of San Francisco. From here on, tough luck is just that, tough freaking luck.

Along those lines, growing pains and bumps in the road should be expected with a team this young who just had to thrust a rookie 3rd string qb in to action light years before he was ready. I'm also not altogether sure that a year of learning experiences isn't better in the long run for this team than a freak wild card appearance.

This is not the Johnny/Farmer era, it's not D.A. and a bunch of 1st round divas (sorry K Dub). Hell, it's not even the Holcomb/Green squad. This is a young, well-coached team with a purpose. The turning point is near and when it gets here , Brian Billick can kiss my a**.

So with that said, I'm going to put my $ where mouth is and GUARANTEE A BROWNS VICTORY against the mighty Pats this Sunday.

I urge other Browns fans to leave the curse deep in the rear view mirror and jump on this bandwagon. The payoff is coming and it's gonna be sweet.

.....Now to address the D-lister in the room

Mr. Amin ElHassan (@AminESPN ) continued his shade parade on the city of Cleveland, and this week even decided to take shots at me and little ole Pencilstorm.com. Let me remind Mr. ElHAssan, that he is a stubbed toe away from emailing the powers here at the 'Storm begging for a spot covering CSU hoops. He is not exactly an ESPN institution, nor is he particularly good at his job ( see his 2016 NBA  Eastern Conference playoff picks).

He should spend more time thanking the Good Lord, that @stugotz790 allows him to muck up his show every few weeks in the winter and less time trolling Ohioans.

With that, I say good day and Go Browns

Big $ is one half of the North Coast Posse. K-Dubs was off this week as it was his turn to host the Pencilstorm tailgate before Browns v Pats.

Is Indiana a Trap Game for OSU? Baver Answers

Colin: Anything noteworthy about the destruction of Rutgers or just business as usual?

Baver: Not much to report….almost flawless domination after the first 5 minutes of the game. Schiano knows how to make the right adjustments rather quickly. Rutgers is horrible, but it’s still pretty amazing how dominant this Buckeye team has been this early on with all the talent lost from last year’s squad.

Colin: Is anybody going to be able to touch JT Barrett's records when he is all finished at OSU?

Baver: If Barrett stays healthy and comes back for ’17, his career records are going to be ridiculous. Hell, they’ll be ridiculous without a 4th year. But, as long as Urban Meyer is here, and as long as the rules don’t change to slow down tempo offenses, I’d say no Ohio State offensive records are safe.

Colin: The Big 12 plays ZERO defense and Oklahoma gave up 49 points last week to TCU. Does this take some luster off of our win? 

Baver: I think’s a win’s a win…and that one was against a Top 25 team on the road. Let’s just hope Oklahoma doesn’t screw around and lose to a very bad Texas team again.  

Colin: On to this week's game. Indiana gave us fits last year, is coming off a win over Sparty and the Bucks have a huge road game at Wisconsin next week. Isn't this the textbook recipe for a trap game?

Baver: Yep…and the Buckeyes are overdue to show some chinks in the armor….every team does at some point, even Bama. I don’t think this one goes down to the wire like last year, but I tend to think Indiana hangs around awhile like they normally do against Ohio State.

Colin: As talented as this team is, history shows that going undefeated is extremely rare and young teams do have let downs. What remaining games are you most concerned about? 

Baver: Wisconsin and Michigan. I’m afraid many of the players may think they can just waltz into Camp Randall and hammer Wisconsin at night like they did Oklahoma on the road. Maybe that will happen, but that place is going to be a lot crazier than Norman was, and Urban now has to keeps egos in check. The Michigan game will be tighter this year, I believe. I think Ohio State hammers Sparty in East Lansing.

Colin: Nationally, which teams are the best and/or worst match up should the Bucks make the playoff?

Baver: Alabama has had their fair share of problems against mobile QBs in the past, so JT Barrett could cause them some problems. On the flip side, I think Bama’s power/run game could be a problem for OSU. I’d much rather play a team that leans on an air attack over the run, as I think the Buckeye pass D is second to none. But overall, I think this Buckeye team is diverse, and when you give Meyer extra time to prepare, I think this team matches up favorably against anyone.

Colin: Give us an update on your picks to date and what games/lines will you be keeping an eye on this weekend?

Baver: Got 2 out of 3 last week to bring my stellar record on the year to 6-10; how ‘bout that? I like Ohio State 35-14, pulling away in the 2nd half. So Indiana plus the 29 is probably the wise play. Rutgers is in for their 2nd beatdown in as many games, and maybe another shutout. Take Michigan laying the 29 ½ at Rutgers. Brady Hoke has not been the answer as Oregon’s new DC, as Oregon’s D still can’t stop anybody. Washington takes a hammer to Oregon in Eugene…take the Huskies and lay the 9 there.