Does Sparty Spoil OSU Again? Baver Answers Colin's Questions

Colin: Let's start with the million-dollar question, if the Buckeyes win out, no matter how they do it, will they make the playoff?

Baver: In all likelihood….yes. ESPN’s FPI ratings and corresponding probability factors give Ohio State only a 9% chance of winning the Big Ten. Yet, the sportsbooks now have OSU’s chances to win the Nat’l Title at anywhere from 2-1 to 3-1, second only to Bama, while those two teams have significantly better odds to win it all than any other team. And Fivethirtyeight calculates OSU chances of making the playoff at 54%. What’s that tell you? It tells you that those factoring the odds/probabilities fully expect the Committee to select an 11-1 Ohio State team in their final Top 4 rating, even without playing in the B1G title game.

But never say never….the books that took action on the presidential election had it more lopsided than the polls did….and of course the polls, the books, and the stock market traders were all dead wrong.

Colin: How shocked were you that Michigan lost? I missed most of it. What happened? They came in on a roll.

Baver: It doesn’t surprise me that the game was close, but I figured that Michigan would force their will on Iowa if the game were tight in the 4th quarter. Michigan had left their state only once prior to last Saturday, playing a horrendous Rutgers team in Piscataway. Kinnick Stadium can be a tough place to play, and mediocre Ferentz-led Iowa teams can still be pesky. Michigan’s downfall? What some thought was the best defense in the country couldn’t contain Akrum Wadley, who had 167 combined yds from scrimmage. And the Iowa defense that got shredded by Saquon Barkley and PSU held the UM rushing attack under 100 net yards.

Colin: Along those lines, this is going to make me sound like a drooling Dispatch mailbox hater, but I wasn't completely impressed with OSU against Maryland. Yes, we did win 62-3, but the passing game still seemed like it needed an extra second to develop. That extra second disappears against better defenses. Are you convinced this passing game has turned the corner?

Baver: It’s turned “a” corner, but not sure it’s turned “thee” corner. Barrett is simply not throwing the ball like he once did. Now, he does just about everything else well, but accuracy is definitely a problem. I do like KJ Hill and Binjimen Victor, and the progress they are making. And the O-line has raised their collective game since the Penn State debacle; that has definitely helping the Buckeye aerial attack.

Colin: Are the Silver Bullets getting the respect they deserve on D?

Baver: No. More on that in a second.

Colin: Ending the season again with MSU and Michigan blows. No matter what their record, I just can't believe Sparty and company won't play way over their heads on Senior Day. Your thoughts?

Baver: I’m concerned…that’s for sure. I think MSU will indeed play one of their better games of the year, but the way Schiano has this defense playing, I find it hard to see Sparty putting many points on the board. And Urban should have his guys in the right mind frame after last year’s devastating loss. I’ll pass on making a score prediction with potential bad weather in store for Saturday in East Lansing, but I see a low scoring game with the Bucks winning by a couple TD’s. If the weather is horrible, then it might be tighter.

Colin: Does the noon kick help or hurt the Buckeyes?

Baver: This will be Sparty’s fifth straight noon kick, and the Bucks haven’t had a noon kick since October 1st. I think that answers your question.

Colin: What other games and lines will you be keeping an eye on this week and give us an update on your picks to date?

Baver: 7-3 against the spread on OSU, hitting 7 of the last 8…I’ve had a good pulse on the Buckeyes from a Vegas standpoint for the 3rd straight year. But I still can’t break out of the slump with non-Buckeye games….I’m 15-18-1 ATS overall, which includes the OSU games. I mentioned a two-TD game or maybe less, so while I think Urban and his boys get revenge on Sparty, I think MSU plus the 22 is the play there. I really like West Virginia getting points (3 ½) at home vs Oklahoma, as the ‘Eers have finally made a believer out of me. I also like a rejuvenated Stanford team laying 11 at Cal. And I think 13 ½ isn’t enough pts in the Maryland-Nebraska game; I like the Huskers to cover in Lincoln.

Are the Bucks as Good as they Looked Against Nebraska? Baver Answers

Colin:  Wow. Are we that good or was Nebraska that over rated?

Baver: A little of both. When an Urban Meyer team breaks out of a slump, they usually do so in grand fashion. And Urban teams typically play their best in the highest profile games. Since the start of the 2014 campaign, Ohio State has faced 10 teams that ranked in the top 12 nationally. OSU is 9-1 in those games, having scored 40 or more points in 8 of the 10. It helped too that Nebraska suffered from the Wisconsin hangover….we know all too well what that can do to a team. But honestly….no one is going to mistake this Cornhusker team with Tom Osborne’s teams of the 90’s.

Colin:  What did you see on offense that was different previous weeks?

Baver: I think they did a better job of mixing up the play calling and the execution was damn near perfect. All of the key offensive pieces seemed to finally be in sync with one another. My guess is that the offensive coaches and players spent a considerable amount of time working to get their rhythm and timing back in the days leading up to Saturday’s beat down. On another note, true frosh Binjimen Victor, who can fly, ran several deep routes. Although they didn’t throw long to him, NU had to account for him, and this helped soften things up for the short stuff. The Buckeyes had the NU defense off balance all night and things just snowballed.

Colin:  And the defense...

Baver: It didn’t look like Ohio State made too many changes from a schematic standpoint; there was just a ton more energy than we’ve seen in awhile. Unlike Wisconsin, and Penn State (to an extent), Nebraska had no success running the ball. They then tried to throw the ball deep several times; again, no success. Overall, Nebraska’s offense simply couldn’t match up against an Ohio State defense that was bringing it, play after play. This is an OSU D that will again see several underclassmen being picked in the early rounds of the next NFL draft. You don’t want to face them when they are clearly motivated.

Colin:  OK, we are on a collision course with Michigan for a spot in the Big Ten title game. Can anything mess this up?

Baver: Possibly Sparty rising up and playing their best game of the year against Ohio State like they did last year. Or Michigan screwing around and losing to Iowa on Saturday. If that happens, the Bucks not only need to win out, but will need the Nits to lose another game as well. But, yeah….I’d put my money on the winner of that game….The Game….heading to the conference title game the following Saturday.

Colin:  Give us an update on your picks and games / lines you will be watching this week.

Baver: Treading water at 14-17 against the spread, but 6-3 ATS picking the Ohio State games, hitting 6 of the last 7. Does Urban take it easy on his former assistant who’s now leading the Terps? Not sure he can afford to with the possibility of OSU winning out but still not making the B1G championship game. I like the Bucks to cover the 29 ½; the call: Ohio State 45-13. Mississippi St is playing better and catching too many against Bama. Take the Bulldogs and the 29 pts against the nation’s best team….I foresee a Bama 21 to 24 pt win. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Nebraska free-fall; take the Gophers getting a touchdown in Lincoln.

 

The NCP "Are Sick" and Had to Call Off Work So No Browns Blog Tonight.

Actually, that's not entirely true. They did tell their 3rd shift manager, Mr. Johansen, they had food poisoning and couldn't work Thursday at the Anheuser-Busch Brewery but he said, "If I see you guys writing your stupid Browns blog you are both fired."

So no blog this week for the Thursday night game, Browns v Ravens.

You can still follow them @northcoastpossee because Mr. Johansen doesn't know what twitter is. 

WWE Hell in a Cell - Best to Worst by Big Vin Vader

WWE Hell in a Cell    -    Best to Worst


Even with the near-oversaturation of Pay-Per-Views following WWE’s brand split, Hell in a Cell remains a highly-anticipated event.  While it was disappointing to learn that the show was RAW-specific, most of my doubts were squashed as the card played out.  With this year’s HIAC, WWE put on a PPV that actually made history and felt justified in its three hour-plus length.


The Best


Having the Women’s Championship match between Sasha Banks and Charlotte go on last was huge.  It was the first Women’s Division HIAC match, as well as the first time women have main-evented a PPV.  It was the absolute right call, taking things an enormous step forward from the days of the Divas Division.
    Sasha and Charlotte are two of the best athletes in the company, and they have a history of great matches throughout their rivalry.  The stakes were high, and their chemistry is undeniable.  Throw in the even taking place in Sasha’s hometown of Boston, and the crowd was completely fired up for the contest.
    Charlotte attacked Sasha as the cell was being lowered, starting a vicious brawl on the outside.  The most startling spot of the night followed shortly after, as Charlotte plucked Sasha from the cage wall and powerbombed her through the Spanish announce table.  It was shockingly brutal, seeming to injure Sasha’s back and put her out of action.  The teased forfeit took way too long, but it was more than justified by everything that followed.
    Rushing back into the ring just before her loss was finalized, Sasha kicked off an amazing, absolutely physical contest that easily took the top spot of the night.  The long-time rivals thoroughly demonstrated why they’re the best athletes RAW has, pulling out several impressive exchanges.  They made fantastic use of the cage and match stipulations, and a number of the spots were unlike anything I’ve seen in a HIAC match.  A few tables got destroyed, Sasha inventively used a chair to break Charlotte’s Figure Eight, and the psychology and selling were top-notch.
    The problem came with the finish, as Sasha’s devastated back gave out once again, allowing Charlotte to seize the upper hand and catch the pin with a surprise Natural Selection.  The combination of Sasha losing the title in her hometown as well as the abrupt nature of the conclusion totally deflated the crowd.  There weren’t even many jeers, just disappointed silence.  Definitely not the best call, but it ensures the rivalry will continue.  Regardless, the women outshined everyone else that night, which surprised no one, and really raised the stakes and profile of the division.  Hopefully this wasn’t a one-off and the Women’s Division can continue to headline future PPVs.


#2


Kevin Owens versus Seth Rollins for the Universal Title was the second most impressive match of the night, just as expected.  Even if their feud has felt somewhat half-assed, they’re both terrific workers and always capable of an impressive match.  Owens desperately needed a clean win to look like an effective champion, especially after his Chris Jericho-assisted win at Clash of Champions.  Rollins’ involvement has felt like he’s biding his time on the way to a feud with Triple H, so the cage match should have been the blow-off for the rivalry.
    The match picked up a fast pace from the beginning, delivering exactly what is expected of a HIAC match.  The whole bout was incredibly physical, and the wrestlers made excellent use of the cell itself, yet again pulling off a number of spots that haven’t been seen before.  Most notable were Owens hitting Rollins with a running cannonball splash against the chain link wall, and the champ getting powerbombed through two tables angled over the ropes and against the cell.
    The two maintained the masterful pace throughout, with an especially impressive high-speed exchange of kicks and teased finishers at the midway point.  The crowd was with them the whole time, even when Owens blinded the ref with a fire extinguisher, allowing Jericho to run in.  This wasn’t what I wanted to see, but they pulled it off, and Jericho acted mainly as a distraction, rather than interfering excessively.
    The match ended on a particularly savage note, with both wrestlers making good use of the ringside weapons.  Owens laid into Rollins with a series of vicious chair shots, finally putting him away with a powerbomb through the seats of two chairs.  It was a perfect end to such a physically impressive contest, and they made the right call in keeping the belt on Owens.


#3


Up next in the rankings was the Cruiserweight Title match between TJ Perkins and Brian Kendrick.  I was let down by their last encounter at Clash, mainly because it felt like a step down from the excellent Cruiserweight Classic.  I wasn’t ready to write them off though, and their meeting at HIAC was a great match, fast-paced and well-rounded.
    The company has taken time to build a feud between the two, relating to their long history together, and it helped immeasurably.  One of the biggest concerns for the Cruiserweight division was how such athletically-inclined performers would translate to the story-based elements of the WWE.  The use of this backstory allowed for real emotional involvement in the match and raised the stakes.
    There was little down time in the ten-minute match, and the entire contest was remarkably well-balanced.  Both men traded submissions and reversals, demonstrating a fast-paced display of mat wrestling tempered with select moments of impressive high-flying.  Also notable was Kendrick tying TJ’s hand wraps around the ropes to deliver more punishment.  He played up his desperation for the title masterfully, and his underhandedness worked to his advantage.
    The spark that seemed missing from their last PPV encounter was there, and it really felt like a meaningful fight between the two acquaintances.  Kendrick faking an injury to sucker TJ and steal the title was a legitimate surprise.  The entire match was exactly what I’d hoped for from the division and the only real problem is that the rivalry looks to continue.  They’ve had some good matches, but if that’s the case, it seems like they’re the only two men in the division that the company wants to give serious exposure to.  Hopefully some of the other Cruiserweights get the chance to shine in the coming months.


#4


Slightly lower in the rankings is the tag team match between Gallows & Anderson and Enzo & Cass.  It’s great to see Gallows & Anderson move on from their frustrating rivalry with the New Day.  They’re the top heel team on RAW, and they should be intimidating, not dressing up like doctors for bad comedy skits.  They need to be seen as a credible threat, and allowing them to move on to new challengers was a smart move.
    The match wasn’t too remarkable on its own, not even lasting seven minutes.  The wrestling was solid throughout, with Enzo & Cass getting in some nice work in particular.  It was most notable for finally giving Gallows & Anderson the opportunity to take the win on a PPV.  They put their competition away in a quick, brutal fashion, just as they should have been doing all along, and their intimidating aura was somewhat restored.  That said, the match could have easily been twice as long and given more time to develop.  It wasn’t bad by any stretch, hitting few sour notes, but both teams deserve the chance to put on a longer contest in the future.


#5


A few notches down on the scale was the Tag Team Title match between the New Day and Cesaro & Sheamus.  There was some buzz that the challengers stood a chance of dethroning the champs, but that was a long shot.  The commentary team is finally acknowledging Demolition’s 478-day, record-setting reign, which raises the question of whether the New Day will beat it or fall just short.
    The in-ring action wasn’t bad, and despite the thrown-together nature of their team, both Cesaro & Sheamus are talented enough to put on an entertaining match.  The New Day are all great wrestlers individually, but they’re hardly known for long, impressive PPV matches. On top of this, they haven’t had a credible threat to their championship in months.
    Cesaro & Sheamus did actually pose a threat, winning the match but not the championship when the New Day got themselves disqualified, escaping with their record intact.  Too much emphasis was placed on Cesaro and Sheamus bickering, but wresting was solid all-around.  The match was perfectly serviceable, but you really have to wonder when the New Day will have a challenging contest where they struggle for their position on top.


#6


The match between Bayley and Dana Brooke wasn’t really bad or offensive in any way, but it sure as hell wasn’t remarkable either.  There’s been little build to the feud, and Bayley deserves better than to be stuck in a throwaway midcard rivalry.  There were no surprises, and the crowd was clearly aligned with Bayley.  Her taking the win in a few short minutes was predictable, and the match had no time at all to develop—not that anyone really wanted it to.  Luckily it was placed early on the card, and it did at least get off to a better start than the first match of the night.


The Worst


The company made an interesting booking decision in placing the US Title HIAC match between Roman Reigns and Rusev up first.  Their feud has been going on for three months now, but should have ended long ago, but that’s not the case.  They both need to move on and start some fresh rivalries.
    Both Reigns and Rusev caught some real heat during their entrance, and the deafening boos hardly get things off to a great start.  Unfortunately for everyone, the match took on a lumbering pace filled with repeated spots and little actual wrestling.  The entire thing just felt incredibly slow, filled with far too many rests and down time.  The two honestly just seemed bored to be fighting once again, and I can’t deny feeling the same watching them.  It also didn’t help that the match was the longest of the night at twenty-five minutes.
    Things did pick up in the last five minutes or so, with some weapons spots and use of the cell.  Most impressive was Rusev locking Reigns in the Accolade on top of the ring steps while pulling a steel chain across his face.  It was surprising in its brutality, as were some of the uses of the stairs themselves.  Reigns predictably won, and the show was able to move on.  Had the match been half as long, most of the problems would have been fixed, and the pace could have been overlooked.  As it stands, it was the wrong call to kick things off, and the feud needs to end now.


Results and Grade


Once again, the WWE provided us with a solidly entertaining show that contained little in the way of bad matches, and a number of unquestionably good ones.  The decision to have the Women’s Title match go on as the main event was a huge deal, and Sasha and Charlotte proved exactly why they earned that spot.  Even with the few filler matches (which are part of every PPV), the whole event was fairly satisfying.  The Hell in a Cell matches were pretty damn good and inventive, with the exception of the opener, and perfectly demonstrated why the show is so highly regarded.  It’ll be interesting to see how things are handled heading into the cross-brand Survivor Series next month, but as it stands now, HIAC was easily the best, most satisfying PPV since the brand split.


An easy 75 out of 100.


The Winners:
Roman Reigns
Bayley
Gallows and Anderson
Kevin Owens
Brian Kendrick
Cesaro & Sheamus
Charlotte


The Losers:
Rusev
Dana Brooke
Enzo & Cass
Seth Rollins
TJ Perkins
The New Day
Sasha Banks

 

 


Rumors and Speculation


    In the meantime, we have to wonder if Goldberg actually stands the chance of winning his match with Brock Lesnar.  The company clearly wants him as the returning babyface hero, but judging by the cheers Lesnar got on RAW, they have no idea how to properly handle this.  And besides, given the talk of WWE’s big Wrestlemania plans for Lesnar, how likely does it seem that they’ll mess with his prestige by having Goldberg go over him this month?
    Also worth noting is the fact that the Undertaker is booked for SmackDown midmonth, possibly beginning to build to his Wrestlemania match.  Either way, it’s safe to say he isn’t retired yet, so maybe that John Cena match is coming in the near future.  Cena hasn’t been around much since No Mercy, so god knows he isn’t busy with any other angles.
    Last, how damn great is it to hear that there’s going to be an entire Cruiserweight-centric show coming?  Maybe the division will finally get some real exposure, rather than occupying the midcard of RAW.

Rookie Stars Return for Browns Still Searching for First Win; The NCP Take Questions for Week 9

Still nursing their hangovers from Game 7 of the World Series, the NCP fields your Week 9 Browns questions.

1) Getting Jamie Collins for a 3rd-round pick seems a little too good to be true. What’s the catch?

Big$:  Hard to say how this trade will bust, but with the Browns track record, odds most likely will be defied. With that said, one way to utilize an abundance of picks is to try and get lucky through trades. It’s pretty clear the lb corps are in desperate need of help, so unless we find out Collins is shacking with Johnny fb at The Nine, he is a value add (#analytics).

K-Dubs, the Soldier:  I am not sure what the catch is.  There were rumors this week that Collins is lazy, that Bill Belicheck needed to shake up his locker room to maintain his team’s focus, and that this trade was simply a pre-emptive salary dump by the Patriots.  Whatever the reason, I like this trade.  Collins is a playmaker that can make tackles in the running game, sack the quarterback, and defend the pass.  The Browns’ D needs help in all of these areas.  I am not sure how many snaps he will get this week, but this is a positive move for Cleveland, who would be hard-pressed to find a guy in the 3rd round as good as Collins anyway.

2) Speaking of catch, when is Corey Coleman coming back and who is the starting QB this week?

K-Dubs, the Soldier:  Coleman is returning to the lineup this week for the first time since catching 5 balls for 104 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Ravens in week 2.  He had broken his hand in practice that following week. Cody Kessler is also going to start at quarterback today, returning from a concussion.  The offensive lineup has been such a patchwork all year because of injuries, but with Coleman and Kessler on the field, this could be a preview of the Browns future.

3) An 0 -16 season is starting to creep into the picture. Could Hue’s seat get hot before he gets a chance to rebuild with all these draft picks?

Big$:  So help me God, if they make a change, I’m done FOR GOOD. You can put that in writing. Let the Harvard guys do their thing and trust the frigging process.

 

4) Speaking of the draft, what are the positions of need that need to be addressed sooner than later?

K-Dubs, the Soldier:  The defensive backfield.  The play of the DBs has been so inconsistent this year.  Joe Haden has missed a ton of games the last few years, and with few exceptions he has not had many good games when healthy.  The Browns also need a center.  Cam Erving, who was a 1st-round pick last year, has gotten a pass because of his inexperience, but the more time he’s on the field, the more it looks like he just can’t hang. 

Big$:  Defense, Defense, Defense. I think a franchising of Collins is in play, so I expect the play to be outside - in. ( DB to DL). Conventional wisdom used to believe D lines made secondaries (2015 Panthers), however I think the opposite is being shown to be true (2016 Panthers).

5) Let’s give LeBron a week off, who should a member of the Tribe start for this week?

Big$:  Speaking of secondaries, I’m starting Frankie L. at cornerback. Kid is clutch and doesn’t let anything get by him ( honorable mention to letting Tito take the Head Coaching reigns).

K-Dubs, the Soldier:  So many good choices, but I have to go with Rajai Davis.  His two-run homer off of Chapman to send the game into extra innings was as clutch as anything has ever been.  The Browns are a young team that needs to learn how to win.  Rajai would bring some of that swag.

6) Other than Zeke coming back to Ohio, how much do you hate the Cowboys?

Big$:  I’m nothing if not loyal to my Cleveland roots. Garrett is a Cleveland guy. Plus, I love their O line play. We’ve had enough to hate about the Browns over the last decade to worry about hating other teams*
(* except the Bengals, I hate the freaking Bengals)

K-Dubs, the Soldier:  Couldn’t agree less.  I hate every team that is not the Browns.  Sorry to say that includes Zeke now, too.  This week is really about the return of Coleman and Kessler.

Why Can't OSU Pass Downfield Anymore? Baver Ponders the Question.

Colin: Nobody seems to have an answer for the lack of downfield passing. Do you have a theory? Who is to blame? Who needs to step up?  Can it be fixed in time to win the Big Ten?

Baver: At this point, I think it’s three things: (1) Receivers struggle to get open, and WR coach Zach Smith’s days may be numbered here; (2) When receivers do get open, JT at times doesn’t find them or misfires; and (3) The offense is out of sync…the timing just isn’t there. Can it be fixed? Well, it can improve, and I think it will. And yeah, the Bucks can still win the Big Ten.

Colin: Is it me, or did we go from being a "tempo" team to a group that barely gets the ball snapped before the play clock hits zero? Is this by design?

Baver: The tempo has definitely slowed down, and this ties back to the offensive timing being off. They had to slow things down, partly because of this. And it also seems like there have been more audibles called this year, as defenses seem to have scouted Ohio State pretty well. Obviously it takes additional time when JT has to audible. And as the tempo has slowed, so has Ohio State’s success on offense.

Colin: Northwestern played a lot of pitch and catch with one good QB and one good WR. They sure made it look simple. Are our coaches over thinking this? And could that Northwestern QB play on Sundays?

Baver: This is sad to say, but Ohio State does not have a WR that measures up with NW’s Austin Carr, a former walk-on. Think about that for a second. And JT can’t throw the ball like Clayton Thorson, who will indeed play on Sundays. He had a very rough true-freshman year last season, but the NFL scouts still had him rated high before his sophomore season even began.

Colin: I feel like the D has played pretty well all things considered. Do you feel like they have held up their end of the bargain?

Baver: They are playing better than the offense is right now….but I am surprised at the some of the long drives they give up, seemingly out of nowhere, when they are playing well up to that point in the game.

Colin: Our tough schedule only gets tougher from here on out starting with Nebraska this Saturday night, what are some advantages/ disadvantages of this match up?

Baver: Ohio State should have success running the ball against the Huskers, but will likely have problems throwing the ball against the NU secondary, the strength of their defense. On the other side of the ball, Tommy Armstrong has a habit of imploding in big games. I tend to think the Buckeye D-line will have their best game of the year in this prime-time game, against a top-ten team in the ‘Shoe, against a banged up Nebraska O-line.

Colin: The Big Ten just announced we are going to start playing some Friday night games. Boy, that sure seems unfair to all the Ohio High School football fans that are the life blood of the OSU program. What do you think of this move?

Baver: It’s pathetic. Ohio State should never be playing on a Friday night. Michigan balked at it, so why didn’t Gene Smith do the same? He is such a sellout. I hope there is major pushback from Urban.

Colin: Give us an update on your picks and what games/lines will you be keeping an eye on this weekend?

Baver: Can’t hit much right now except Ohio State games, where I’ve hit 5 of the last 6 against the spread. I’m 12-16 on the year overall ATS. I correctly called Penn State and N’Western both covering against Ohio State, but I like Ohio State to snap back in a big way this week. Urban is downplaying it publicly, but I think he is all over these guys behind closed doors. Look for the Bucks to cover the 17 and roll Nebraska; I like Ohio State 38-17. Florida State is in a tough situational spot traveling to NC State after the thriller against Clemson, but I think Vegas has over-adjusted for that making the Noles only a 5 ½ pt favorite. Take the Noles and lay the points. And I think A&M’s is laying too many (13) at Miss. St. I like the Bulldogs and the points, and an upset wouldn’t surprise me.