Baver 18-6 ATS Picking Bucks Past Two Years. How Does He See OSU v Mich?

Colin: Where does this rank in the all-time OSU v Michigan match-ups?

Baver: The Ten Year War saw unbeaten, untied OSU & UM teams face each other in ‘70, ‘73, and ‘75. Then you had the #1 vs #2 match-up of unbeatens in 2006. Does it rank up there with those games? Ask me after we know the outcome of The Game tomorrow, LOL.

Colin: What is the best-case scenario for Ohio State in this game?

Baver: 1) Ideal weather conditions; 2) JT Barrett clicking with his WR’s and getting Ohio State’s vertical passing game in gear. 3) The OSU defense completely shutting down De’Veon Smith and Chris Evans; thus, leaving it up to O’Korn or Speight having to beat Ohio State, the nation’s leader in pass defense efficiency, through the air. 4) Mike Weber letting loose.

Colin: What is the worst-case scenario for the Buckeyes?

Baver: 1) The weather unexpectedly turning bad; 2) UM’s offense hitting the Bucks with several big plays, similar to the way Sparty did this past Saturday; 3) Jabrill Peppers having a Charles Woodson kind of game. 4) The turnover margin favoring Michigan to the tune of +2 or better. 

Colin: What is your best guess, realistic scenario for this game?

Baver: With expected mild November weather, I think the Buckeye offense will probably have more success against the vaunted UM defense than most are expecting. I think JT bounces back, and throws the ball much better tomorrow. And I think it will be tough sledding for a UM offense that will likely be missing Wilton Speight. But I think we’ll see a tight game headed into the 4th quarter. Then, I foresee Urban Meyer and this Buckeye team doing what they usually do in tight games….making big plays late and getting it done.

Colin: Which Wolverine should the Buckeyes fear?

Baver: Buckeye fans are probably sick of hearing this, but it’s Jabrill Peppers, far and away.  Is he Heisman-worthy? Probably not, but if Michigan is to break the Buckeye jinx, he will have a big part in the upset. I think he worries me most on punt returns, but he also has 16 tackles for losses on the season, which is pretty crazy.

Colin: Which Buckeye should SCuM fear?

Baver: JT Barrett. Everybody and their brother and sister, myself included, has commented about his inaccuracy this year, and I am guessing UM will underestimate him. As I mentioned, the weather conditions for Saturday look to be mild for late November, and my guess is that JT brings it tomorrow…with his legs and his arm. If he does, Michigan does not win this game.

Colin: What is your favorite Dead Schembechler song?

Baver: “Chad Henne”, without a doubt. Seems like yesterday, the entire crowd at the Newport sang the backup vocals on that one in November 2006. Can’t believe it’s been 10 years. “I Hate Michigan” comes in at #2. Classics. 

Colin: Will you be watching any other games this weekend? And give us an update on your picks.

Baver:  Not a good year outside of Buckeye games (18-19-1 overall), but I continue to have the pulse on the Buckeyes. I’m 8-3 on the season, 18-6 over the last two seasons, and 26-12-1 picking OSU games against the spread over the last three seasons. I have spent the whole week obsessing about The Game and haven’t dove into Vegas spreads yet on any other game. I’d probably stay away from betting this one, but having to make a call, I’ll take the Bucks laying the 6 ½. Urban lives for big games and I stopped doubting him in marquee matchups after the Bama upset in the 2014 Playoff. The call: Ohio State 27 Michigan 17.  

Big Vin Vader Previews and Answers your WWE Survivor Series Questions

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1) So explain who is battling and why is this different than previous Survivor Series?

   The majority of the matches are the traditional Survivor Series Elimination matches.  This year round things are different due to the brand split, which pits the wrestlers on RAW against the SmackDown roster.  First up are the men’s teams, with Kevin Owens, Seth Rollins, Braun Strowman, Chris Jericho, and Roman Reigns representing RAW.  Team SmackDown is composed of AJ Styles, Dean Ambrose, Bray Wyatt, Randy Orton, and Shane McMahon.  
    The women’s teams are: Charlotte, Bayley, Nia Jax, Sasha Banks, and Alicia Fox representing RAW.  SmackDown has Becky Lynch, Alexa Bliss, Nikki Bella, Naomi and Carmella in its corner.
    The final Elimination match is the Tag Teams.  RAW has The New Day, Gallows & Anderson, Sheamus & Cesaro, Enzo & Cass, and the Shining Stars.  SmackDown’s team features American Alpha, Rhyno & Heath Slater, The Hype Bros, Breezango, and the Usos.
    The singles matches sound even more interesting, with Brian Kendrick (RAW) defending the Cruiserweight title against Kalisto (SmackDown).  SmackDown’s The Miz is set to defend his recently-regained Intercontinental belt against RAW’s Sami Zayn.  And the big marquee match, of course, is Goldberg vs. Brock Lesnar.
    This year’s Survivor Series is different for a number of reasons.  Mainly, the pitting of each brand against one another stands out.  WWE has been playing up some imagined rivalry between the two programs, but with the realization of these matches, things are finally being demonstrated physically.  There’s also the notability of Goldberg’s return to the WWE for the first time in over a decade, which places even higher stakes on his rematch with Brock Lesnar.  The fact that each brand has a title on the line, and could lose a belt to their rival brand is pretty significant.  Also, the whole thing is scheduled for four hours, which is usually reserved for the Royal Rumble, Wrestlemania, and Summer Slam. 

2) What is at stake for each team and some of the individuals?

    The biggest stakes are the bragging rights/supposed superiority of one brand over the other.  Interestingly, no world or universal titles are at stake on the card, which keeps the focus on the RAW vs. SmackDown rivalry rather than any brand-specific contenders to titles.  This whole idea finally gives some weight to the idea that the brands are in competition, and are physically settling the matter in a ring.  Also worth considering is the total shaking up of the face-heel dynamic achieved by pitting oppositely-aligned rivals (especially Sasha and Charlotte) on the same teams in the name of brand representation.  We’ve seen conflicts between team members in the past, and now that sworn rivals are forced to cooperate against a supposedly common foe, it’ll be interesting to see how the wrestlers work together.
    The biggest stakes, however, rest on the singles matches.  Firstly, the Cruiserweight and Intercontinental titles stand a chance of switching brands, which could alter each’s program’s roster and overall presentation.  The Miz winning back the IC belt was a surprise, and it seems like they really want to keep it on him.  However, RAW wouldn’t be undeserving of the title, and Sami Zayn is exactly the type of performer who would benefit from the win.  Zayn is incredible in the ring, and is exactly the type of wrestler the belt used to help: not main event status, but an impressive mid-card worker.  Plus, he hasn’t won any titles since making it to the main roster, which stands at odds with his NXT credentials.
    The Cruiserweight match is similar, especially with the threat of the title changing brands.  There was debate that the division should have started on SmackDown, and that’s hard to argue with, given the back-seat treatment it’s been given on RAW.  This would be a good opportunity to switch things up and give the cruiserweights the chance to shine.  SmackDown has the thinner roster of the two brands, so it would be a wise move overall to move things over to them.
    Goldberg vs. Lesnar is a mixed bag.  Goldberg’s return has been teased for months, and anytime Lesnar gets in the ring the company makes a huge deal out of it.  So this is actually a huge marquee match.  The problems lie in its build-up, which has only been a few weeks.  They could have taken time to ratchet up the anticipation, but a quick payoff seems more in line.  Also, their previous match at Wrestlemania XX was abysmal (words really can’t sum it up), so you have to wonder how they’ll handle that knowledge.  It’s a huge draw, and should be worth watching, but something just doesn’t feel right about the whole thing, especially if this is a one-off for Goldberg as has been rumored.

3) Will this have any impact on the Wrestlemania Card? 

    The build to Wrestlemania has definitely already started, and there are a number of things to pay attention to here.  First is the Undertaker’s return on the SmackDown go-home show, which definitely starts the build to his next opponent (if he’s to be featured at all).  Plus, there’s the chance that he’ll make an appearance at the PPV Sunday.
    There are also rumors that the company is planning to kick a major storyline into motion at Survivor Series, which undoubtedly seems like a nod to the biggest event of the year.  People have been saying that Lesnar’s Wrestlemania opponent has been locked-in for some time, so maybe we’ll finally get an inkling of who that specifically is.  Maybe Goldberg’s return will be revealed as more than a one-time thing, and that potential Undertaker match could take place.
    If either the Crusierweight or IC belt were to change hands, it seems likely that a long-term rivalry between brands to regain their “rightful” property would be set in motion.  What better place to settle that dispute than at Wrestlemania?
    Less concrete is the idea that among the brand-specific teams there’s likely to be continuing animosity.  So any mistake or wrong move could set a new feud into motion or prolong a current one, possibly into the Wrestlemania season.

The NCP Responds to Browns' State-of-the-Dawg-Pound Address

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With Big$ out completing his community service this week, K-Dubs, the Soldier responds to the Browns call for the Dawg Pound to "Keep Calm and Bark On."

After its fairly stunning silence during a 0-10 start, the Browns front office held a State-of-the-Team address this week.  The team’s executive vice president Sashi Brown met with the beat writers, trying to reassure them that this disappointing season, which has reached lows previously unseen in franchise history, is simply a part of “The Process.”  Sashi told us the culture truly is changing in Berea and that soon the world will witness the resurrection of the Browns.  Coach Hue Jackson echoed that sentiment this week, admonishing other teams to get their licks in now, because the Browns are going to be Kings of North soon.  What else could they say?  Sure, nobody expected to be winless, yada yada, but evolution is afoot.  It was all monotone platitudes, and while I listened, I recalled Dana Carvey’s impression of President George H.W. Bush: “Stay the course. A thousand points of light.  Stay the course.” 

Here is a response to this banality from a proud member of the Dawg Pound: Excuse my doubt, but what the hell am I missing?!  Of course there was going to be a change of culture from last year.  The past few seasons the front office and coaching staff did not [or could not] work together.  The result was a team that had a roster with players that did not fit the coach’s system. 

Owner Jimmy Haslem responded by creating a completely new structure of governance and placing a focus on finding value players rather than high-priced free agents.  No doubt these changes would create a new culture, but the time has long passed to show us what this different and more-cohesive vision means on the field.  The defense ranks 31st in yards and points per game and 23rd in sacks.  The team has a minus-5 turnover margin, and the offense has an average time-of-possession that is 6:37 minutes less than opponents.  How is that for analytics?

When the season started, I was optimistic that we would begin to see some flashes of forthcoming glory for the new, new Browns, even though I was fairly certain that a 5-win season would be a stretch.  My outlook persisted after some early-year losses in which the team was generally competitive but came up short in tight games.  Things just seem to have gotten worse lately, though.  In the second half against the Cowboys two weeks ago, the offense gained just 33 yards in a deflating defeat.  Then, last week against the Ravens, they had to call a timeout before the very first play of the game because there were 12 defenders on the field.  On the first play!  The D then forced a punt and the two returners, Duke Johnson and Joe Haden, ran into each other and nearly fumbled the ball. 

When you see things like this it is so hard to maintain hope.  Where is this change?  To quote recent campaign ads, we're getting "more of the same."  I will keep carrying the torch for now, but patience is getting low.  So when the Browns kick off at home this Sunday against the Steelers, I will be watching and cheering (and drinking Four String Brewing’s Skeleton Red Rye IPA).  What else can I say?

So what are the keys to victory this week?:

The Browns are going to be playing two opponents on Sunday, Pittsburgh and the weather.  The forecast for kickoff is 35 degrees with a chance of rain and flurries, and wind gusts up to 50 mph!  This may cause havoc for Browns QB Cody Kessler, whose arm is not the strongest.  Coach Jackson pulled Kessler out against the Ravens because he was not pushing the ball down field, but in this wind, I imagine keeping routes short may serve the team better.  Cleveland may have a better chance to get the ground game going against the Steelers, too, because DE and former Buckeye standout Cam Heyward is out with a torn pectoral muscle.  The offense needs to get Isaiah Crowell running downhill to eat up some clock and keep the ball away from Ben Roethlisberger. The harsh winds will also likely cause problems in the kicking game, so field position will be at a premium this week.

Speaking of Big Ben, he did miss a game last month with a torn meniscus, and hopefully that injury, coupled with the harsh lakefront weather, will limit his mobility this week.  He is not known as a runner obviously, as he resembles a competitive eater more than he does a track star, but he is one of the all-time greats at avoiding sacks and keeping plays alive by scrambling.  If the Browns really want to exhibit a change in culture, getting some sacks and putting opponents in 3rd-and-long situations more often would certainly help.  Recently acquired OLB Jamie Collins will have another week of practice in this system under his belt, too, and he is a playmaker that should help the Browns improve its 3rd-down conversion rate, which is 50 percent for the year.

Of course, there is another force of nature at play in all-world wideout Antonio Brown.  Over the years, he has had huge games against Haden, much like he has against every other DB in the league.  He is probably going to get his catches and yards this Sunday.  Cleveland’s chances of winning are tied then to how well the team contains all the other playmakers for Pittsburgh.  They need to limit yards-after-contact for RB La’Veon Bell, who is also a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield (45 rec., 360 yds.), and keep the ball away from the tight ends, which have killed the Browns this year.  If they can pull it all together, a win over the hated Steelers would be a rare bright spot in The Process.

Does Sparty Spoil OSU Again? Baver Answers Colin's Questions

Colin: Let's start with the million-dollar question, if the Buckeyes win out, no matter how they do it, will they make the playoff?

Baver: In all likelihood….yes. ESPN’s FPI ratings and corresponding probability factors give Ohio State only a 9% chance of winning the Big Ten. Yet, the sportsbooks now have OSU’s chances to win the Nat’l Title at anywhere from 2-1 to 3-1, second only to Bama, while those two teams have significantly better odds to win it all than any other team. And Fivethirtyeight calculates OSU chances of making the playoff at 54%. What’s that tell you? It tells you that those factoring the odds/probabilities fully expect the Committee to select an 11-1 Ohio State team in their final Top 4 rating, even without playing in the B1G title game.

But never say never….the books that took action on the presidential election had it more lopsided than the polls did….and of course the polls, the books, and the stock market traders were all dead wrong.

Colin: How shocked were you that Michigan lost? I missed most of it. What happened? They came in on a roll.

Baver: It doesn’t surprise me that the game was close, but I figured that Michigan would force their will on Iowa if the game were tight in the 4th quarter. Michigan had left their state only once prior to last Saturday, playing a horrendous Rutgers team in Piscataway. Kinnick Stadium can be a tough place to play, and mediocre Ferentz-led Iowa teams can still be pesky. Michigan’s downfall? What some thought was the best defense in the country couldn’t contain Akrum Wadley, who had 167 combined yds from scrimmage. And the Iowa defense that got shredded by Saquon Barkley and PSU held the UM rushing attack under 100 net yards.

Colin: Along those lines, this is going to make me sound like a drooling Dispatch mailbox hater, but I wasn't completely impressed with OSU against Maryland. Yes, we did win 62-3, but the passing game still seemed like it needed an extra second to develop. That extra second disappears against better defenses. Are you convinced this passing game has turned the corner?

Baver: It’s turned “a” corner, but not sure it’s turned “thee” corner. Barrett is simply not throwing the ball like he once did. Now, he does just about everything else well, but accuracy is definitely a problem. I do like KJ Hill and Binjimen Victor, and the progress they are making. And the O-line has raised their collective game since the Penn State debacle; that has definitely helping the Buckeye aerial attack.

Colin: Are the Silver Bullets getting the respect they deserve on D?

Baver: No. More on that in a second.

Colin: Ending the season again with MSU and Michigan blows. No matter what their record, I just can't believe Sparty and company won't play way over their heads on Senior Day. Your thoughts?

Baver: I’m concerned…that’s for sure. I think MSU will indeed play one of their better games of the year, but the way Schiano has this defense playing, I find it hard to see Sparty putting many points on the board. And Urban should have his guys in the right mind frame after last year’s devastating loss. I’ll pass on making a score prediction with potential bad weather in store for Saturday in East Lansing, but I see a low scoring game with the Bucks winning by a couple TD’s. If the weather is horrible, then it might be tighter.

Colin: Does the noon kick help or hurt the Buckeyes?

Baver: This will be Sparty’s fifth straight noon kick, and the Bucks haven’t had a noon kick since October 1st. I think that answers your question.

Colin: What other games and lines will you be keeping an eye on this week and give us an update on your picks to date?

Baver: 7-3 against the spread on OSU, hitting 7 of the last 8…I’ve had a good pulse on the Buckeyes from a Vegas standpoint for the 3rd straight year. But I still can’t break out of the slump with non-Buckeye games….I’m 15-18-1 ATS overall, which includes the OSU games. I mentioned a two-TD game or maybe less, so while I think Urban and his boys get revenge on Sparty, I think MSU plus the 22 is the play there. I really like West Virginia getting points (3 ½) at home vs Oklahoma, as the ‘Eers have finally made a believer out of me. I also like a rejuvenated Stanford team laying 11 at Cal. And I think 13 ½ isn’t enough pts in the Maryland-Nebraska game; I like the Huskers to cover in Lincoln.

Are the Bucks as Good as they Looked Against Nebraska? Baver Answers

Colin:  Wow. Are we that good or was Nebraska that over rated?

Baver: A little of both. When an Urban Meyer team breaks out of a slump, they usually do so in grand fashion. And Urban teams typically play their best in the highest profile games. Since the start of the 2014 campaign, Ohio State has faced 10 teams that ranked in the top 12 nationally. OSU is 9-1 in those games, having scored 40 or more points in 8 of the 10. It helped too that Nebraska suffered from the Wisconsin hangover….we know all too well what that can do to a team. But honestly….no one is going to mistake this Cornhusker team with Tom Osborne’s teams of the 90’s.

Colin:  What did you see on offense that was different previous weeks?

Baver: I think they did a better job of mixing up the play calling and the execution was damn near perfect. All of the key offensive pieces seemed to finally be in sync with one another. My guess is that the offensive coaches and players spent a considerable amount of time working to get their rhythm and timing back in the days leading up to Saturday’s beat down. On another note, true frosh Binjimen Victor, who can fly, ran several deep routes. Although they didn’t throw long to him, NU had to account for him, and this helped soften things up for the short stuff. The Buckeyes had the NU defense off balance all night and things just snowballed.

Colin:  And the defense...

Baver: It didn’t look like Ohio State made too many changes from a schematic standpoint; there was just a ton more energy than we’ve seen in awhile. Unlike Wisconsin, and Penn State (to an extent), Nebraska had no success running the ball. They then tried to throw the ball deep several times; again, no success. Overall, Nebraska’s offense simply couldn’t match up against an Ohio State defense that was bringing it, play after play. This is an OSU D that will again see several underclassmen being picked in the early rounds of the next NFL draft. You don’t want to face them when they are clearly motivated.

Colin:  OK, we are on a collision course with Michigan for a spot in the Big Ten title game. Can anything mess this up?

Baver: Possibly Sparty rising up and playing their best game of the year against Ohio State like they did last year. Or Michigan screwing around and losing to Iowa on Saturday. If that happens, the Bucks not only need to win out, but will need the Nits to lose another game as well. But, yeah….I’d put my money on the winner of that game….The Game….heading to the conference title game the following Saturday.

Colin:  Give us an update on your picks and games / lines you will be watching this week.

Baver: Treading water at 14-17 against the spread, but 6-3 ATS picking the Ohio State games, hitting 6 of the last 7. Does Urban take it easy on his former assistant who’s now leading the Terps? Not sure he can afford to with the possibility of OSU winning out but still not making the B1G championship game. I like the Bucks to cover the 29 ½; the call: Ohio State 45-13. Mississippi St is playing better and catching too many against Bama. Take the Bulldogs and the 29 pts against the nation’s best team….I foresee a Bama 21 to 24 pt win. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Nebraska free-fall; take the Gophers getting a touchdown in Lincoln.

The NCP "Are Sick" and Had to Call Off Work So No Browns Blog Tonight.

Actually, that's not entirely true. They did tell their 3rd shift manager, Mr. Johansen, they had food poisoning and couldn't work Thursday at the Anheuser-Busch Brewery but he said, "If I see you guys writing your stupid Browns blog you are both fired."

So no blog this week for the Thursday night game, Browns v Ravens.

You can still follow them @northcoastpossee because Mr. Johansen doesn't know what twitter is.