Baver's Bowl Bets, Starting with the Playoff Semi's

A look at the Playoff Semi-Finals from a betting standpoint, and the two best plays on Monday…

Semi-Final 1, The Peach Bowl - The Play: Washington +14. Taking the points against Saban has not been wise this year, as Bama is 9-3 against the spread. And it might surprise you that, while Washington has had their best season in decades, they are only 7-6 ATS this year. Still, I think the two-touchdown spread is a bit high. I liked Washington a lot more when they were getting 16, but I think they will be hungrier than Bama in this one, and will still cover the 14. And Chris Peterson is 6-3 ATS in bowl games as a head coach. My guess is that Washington hangs around long enough to give Bama a scare. Prediction: Alabama 31 Washington 23.

Semi-Final 2, The Fiesta Bowl - The Play: Clemson +2½. Both Urban and Dabo are very tough to beat in bowl games. I give the slightest edge to Urban in winning the game, while the slightest edge goes to Dabo if you are going to spot him 2½ points. As mentioned in the Pencil Storm game preview, Dabo is 5-0 in his last 5 Bowl/Playoff games. On the flip side, Urban’s record against the spread in games when he has had more than a week to prepare for his opponent is insane. Probably better to lay off this one as a bettor, and just sit back and enjoy. Prediction: Ohio State 30 Clemson 28

The Cotton Bowl - The Play: Wisconsin -8.5. The big fear is: “Does Wisconsin want to be here?” It’s their first major bowl game since 2012 and I think Paul Chryst will have team motivated. I think Wisconsin’s front seven will be too much for the ‘Row the Boat’ crew at WMU. And Chryst always has a nice offensive game plan when he has extra time to prepare. The flip side? Heading into New Year’s Eve, Bowl dogs are 24-8 against the spread. Still, I like Bucky here. Prediction: Wisconsin 34-21

The Rose Bowl - The Play: Southern Cal -7. When you have been as hot as Penn State has been, the last thing you want is a long lay-off. I think that’s huge here. Something has to give as, between the two of them, these teams have covered 14 games in a row. The Nits finish games better than any team in the country, but they also find themselves in early holes far too often. I see Penn State again getting themselves in hole, but this time not being able to dig themselves out. USC is the most talented team Penn State has played since Ohio State in mid-October. In the end, the talent difference is too much for the Nits.  Prediction: USC 35 Penn State 24.

Baver Gives His Prediction on OSU vs Clemson

Colin: Ok, before jumping into the Clemson game, where does that loss to OSU rank among the most painful Michigan losses of all time? Are we finally even for the Cooper years? 

Baver: As bad as any. Their players, fans, and head coach will be talking about the first down spot 25 years from now, still needing tissues when they bring up the matter. Have we offset the Cooper years? Not sure, but life is certainly good right now.

Colin: As crazy as this sounds, is there a chance Clemson may over look Ohio State anticipating a rematch with Alabama? They seem sorta cocky. 

Baver: I don’t think so. I think the Clemson coaches will get their players in the right mindset, and convince them that they will not beat Ohio State if they play like they did in several games during the regular season. It will be the same kind of motivation Urban will use to push his guys.  

Colin: What about this match up favors Ohio State? 

Baver: An opportunist Buckeye defense facing a QB that has thrown 15 picks this season. Clemson WR’s are about as good as it gets, but this is the best pass D Deshaun Watson, Mike Williams, and company will face this year. I think OSU will force Watson to have to do more with his legs than he is used to.  

Staying on that side of the ball, Clemson’s conventional running game with Wayne Gallman is going to struggle against a very stout Buckeye run defense. 

Colin: What should Buckeye fans be concerned about? 

Baver: The fact that Clemson is, at a minimum, on the same level as Ohio State. Most Buckeye fans, or all CFB fans for that matter, underestimate Dabo Swinney. Clemson has been a dog in each of their last 5 playoff/bowl games. Their record in those games? 4-1, with the only loss being to Alabama, in last year’s title game, in a game where Clemson had 31 first downs to Bama’s 18. 

From a matchup standpoint, Buckeye fans should be concerned about Deshaun Watson’s ability to make things happen with his legs. The fact that Watson may have to rely more on his legs may not be a good thing for Ohio State.   

And they certainly need to fear Clemson’s three 300-lb+, mobile D-linemen (Lawrence, Watkins and Wilkins). OSU’s pass protection has not been good against the top D-lines they have faced, and likely can’t win this game if Barrett faces constant pressure. 

Colin: In your heart of hearts, do you really feel this Ohio State team is National Championship caliber? 

Baver: I definitely think Bama is on another level compared to Ohio State. The Buckeye offense will have to make huge strides with their passing game to win a national title. But that doesn’t mean Ohio State is incapable of upsetting the Tide should they get their shot…and underestimating Urban Meyer is not wise.

 Colin: Best case?

 Baver: A game similar to the win in Norman, Oklahoma, where Ohio State controls the game from start to finish, winning by 3 TD’s or so. That would include Barrett uncharacteristically being in sync with his WR’s, and having JT actually be accurate. That would also include a major upgrade in the performance of the Buckeye O-line.  

Colin: Worst case? 

Baver: Knock on wood here…. Even if all the usual Buckeye blunders on offense are on display, i.e. OSU’s pass blocking collapsing, Barrett throwing the ball like Bauserman, OSU coaches forgetting that Curtis Samuel is an actual option, etc.)….I still don’t see Clemson beating Ohio State badly. Ohio State isn’t going to go away, no matter how bad they may play at times during the game. Worst case? I’d say Clemson beating Ohio State by 10 to 14 points. 

Colin: Most realistic case and final thoughts… 

Baver: I see a game that will go back and forth and may very well be decided on the last drive of the game. I’ve been hard on JT, but he is still the guy you want behind center when the game is on the line. These two teams have such similar personalities, where they play their best when their backs are against the wall. I give the Buckeyes the slightest of advantages, but I wouldn’t want to lay points in this one. The Call: Ohio State 30 Clemson 28.

It's Been a Tough Month for this Tribe Fan - by Scott Goldberg

It’s been a tough month.  The World Series didn’t end the way I hoped.  Neither did the presidential election.  If I could choose to change the outcome of one, the Indians would be World Champs.  Call me irrational, a fanatic, or even unpatriotic, but I wanted this more.

As an Indians fan I go pretty far back.  Back to cavernous Municipal Stadium.  The only constant to today’s team is John Adams whacking his drum at the top of the centerfield bleachers.  Back then he was louder; perhaps it was because the sound reverberated off more hard surfaces as most of the time 68,000 or so seats were empty.

I go back to Charlie Spikes, No-Neck Williams, Frank Duffy, Buddy Bell, Super Joe Charbaneau, Rick Manning, Len Barker and Gaylord Perry.  Not a lot of Hall of Famers in that group.  I think Gaylord and his spitter might have snuck in?  I remember the Spring of 1987 getting the Sports Illustrated baseball preview issue with Cory Snyder and Joe Carter on the cover.  SI jinx at its finest.  Carter went on to be a World Series hero—for the Toronto Blue Jays and Cory faded away like so many promising players and teams before and after him.

And then we had the 90’s a baseball renaissance in Cleveland.  Beautiful new ballpark and so many great players fitting of the cathedral they now played in.  Thome, Ramirez, Belle, Baerga, Lofton and Omar.  And just enough strong starting pitching.  The only time I have witnessed a World Series game in person was Game 5 in Cleveland against the Braves.  Albert Belle of the corked bat and probably corked biceps took Greg Maddux deep in the first.  Eddie Murray stepped into the batter’s box next.  Maddux with his pinpoint control threw high and tight.  Murray didn’t like it and glared out at Maddux and Maddux glared right back.  Murray took a step toward the mound, both benches rose to the top step of the dugout.  Nothing more happened, but the moment was as electric as I have ever witnessed as a sports fan.  

Nothing provides more sustained tension than playoff baseball.  It is simply the best, unless your team is involved and then it is just a form of Chinese water torture—if that actually exists, if not it is just plain torture.  Like the 2016 Cubs, the 1995 Indians were down 3-1 and won Game 5 at home.  No one left Jacobs (now Progressive) Field at the end of the game.  We cheered and danced and then took the feeling and party to the streets.  The Indians headed back to Atlanta for the final two games.  But unlike the Cubs , we never got to a Game 7 as Atlanta closed out the series in Game 6.  Glavine pitched eight innings of one-hit baseball and the Tribe lost 1-0.

It wouldn’t take these Indians long to get back to the promised land.  I won’t spend a lot of time revisiting the 1997 World Series other than to say the Indians broke our hearts.  A strike and out away from being World Champs, Jose Mesa couldn’t close it out and the Indians fell in extra innings.  Omar publicly blames Mesa for losing that World Series.  I loved Omar—best fielding shortstop I ever saw.  But he threw a teammate (not a great guy, but a teammate nonetheless) under the bus.  Both Mesa and Omar eventually left the Indians.  And to Mesa’s credit every time he faced Omar after that he threw at him.  I didn’t blame him one bit.

A generation later, the Indians found themselves back in the World Series.  This time with fewer stars except for its manager against a team with an even more pathetic World Series history and drought.  America’s darlings and loveable losers, the Chicago Cubs.  After splitting the first two games in Cleveland, the Indians won the next two in Chicago.  Those fans waited generations to witness a World Series at Wrigley.  Tickets were being sold for the price of a pretty nice mid-sized sedan.  I guess there was some pent up demand in Chi-Town.  And to see their sullen faces as the Tribe took Games 3 and 4 and a commanding 3-1 lead in the Series, was pure joy.  I had no sympathy for them.  This was our time—my time—to finally celebrate a World Series.

Yeah, yeah, I know the Cavs just won.  I love what LeBron has done for Cleveland, but this is different.  This is bigger.  This is Baseball.  It would be great to win the Series in Cleveland in front of its long-suffering fans in our own beautiful park.  But you win a World Series where and when you can.  In all sports and all elections for that matter, you let up at your own peril.  It is better to step on your opponents neck, give them no chance or thought that the outcome can be any different, because if you give them a glimmer of hope---shit happens.

As I replay the Series in my mind, one at bat stands out.  Game 5, eighth inning Indians down 3-2.  Chapman is on the mound with one out and Jason Kipnis at the plate.  Chapman had already gotten the last two outs in the seventh.  Rajai Davis—we wouldn’t know how clutch Rajai was until Game 7-- had singled ahead of Kipnis in the eighth.  Chapman’s first two pitches were close, but both called balls.  Rajai advanced to second with a steal on one of those pitches.  Tying run on second, one out, 2-0 count.  Chapman’s next two pitches were wildly outside, but inexplicably Kipnis swung at both.  Instead of walking, tightening the screws against Chapman with Lindor and Napoli to follow, the count is 2-2.  Kipnis continues to battle.  The count eventually goes full.  Kipnis fouls out.  Chapman settles back in and gets the next four outs with little more drama and gets an eight out, 2 2/3 inning save.  Chapman saved not just the game, but the Cubs season.
        

Back to Cleveland for Games 6 and 7.  If asked after Game 2 any Cleveland fan would have gladly taken coming back to Cleveland up 3-2.  But we are Cleveland fans and there was an uneasiness, even though we had home field advantage.  Except it wasn’t an advantage.  Using the DH was a distinct advantage for the Cubs.  But complaining about the DH or even that home field was decided by an exhibition game in July (coincidently the winning pitcher of which happened to be the Indians starting pitcher in Games 1, 4 and 7 of this World Series), is like complaining about the electoral college after your candidate loses.  Dem’s da rules.

Even worse was the fact that Progressive Field was not filled with just rabid Indians fans.  But somehow a good third of the crowd happened to rooting loudly for the Cubbies.  By Games 6 and 7 you could no longer trade in your well-appointed Toyota Camry for a pair of good seats.   Cubs fans had raised the ante, now you were looking at a year’s tuition at a pretty fine academic institution in order to get a pair of tix.  Cubs fans threw around cash and bought up the best seats acting like a greedy New York real estate developer.

The Cubs started hitting when they got back to Cleveland.  Zobrist may have been MVP of the Series, but it was Bryant and Rizzo who the Indians feared.  And rightfully so.  Rizzo—something about him reminds me of Phil Mickelson.  They both have just a hint of dimples that might be more pronounced if their faces were a little thinner.  Both have this smirk that seems to say-- even when things are going bad—I am so much better off than you it really doesn’t matter.

The Tribe moved most of its team to the right side of second base when Rizzo batted.  Yet, when he wasn’t sending laser foul balls that made fans scatter, the fair balls improbably reached the outfield wall slicing between all those well-placed defenders, the way a pinball slides between your flippers before disappearing down that hole.  To my eye, Kris Bryant was the Cubs MVP.  His stats may not bear that out, but to me his hits and home runs either set the tone for the game or slammed the door shut on any hope the Indians had for a comeback.  He did make some errors, but as the last ball of the Series rolled his way, you could see in his face that the Cubs were World Champs.  The bastard was smiling even before the ball met his glove.  As I watched my hopes fade, I knew this was not a guy about to choke.  And he didn’t.      

Other than that Game 5 at bat, I don’t look back at the Series with regret.  We didn’t get out-managed, or out-played, or out-pitched.  Almost everyone did their job.  Some exceeded expectations—Rajai Davis’ game tying homer sent me sprinting around the house in which all other inhabitants had gone peacefully to sleep.  “He tied the game, he tied it up,” I screamed in utter disbelief.

Some disappointed. Mike Napoli didn’t hit, but that happens.  I know Tyler Naquin is only a rookie, but he is also a big league (bigly?) outfielder.  Go get the ball and take charge. That is your job in centerfield.  Game 7 was too big for him.  I hope he will have a chance to redeem himself, but he was the Game 7 goat and I mean that in the old-school sense.  Just a few thoughts on Francisco Lindor.  Omar Vizquel is certainly the best Indians shortstop of my lifetime and perhaps a Hall of Famer soon.  But if I could have the 2016 Lindor or Omar in his prime, I choose Lindor.  He’s no Omar in the field, but he is a Gold Glover.  And the kid can hit.  Solid at bat after solid at bat all Series.  But all that pales in relation to his temperament.  I know we have all heard more than we care to about temperament.  But Francisco plays with such joy, his smile is so infectious, he just pulls you in.  He keeps his teammates loose; he is a reminder that this is just a game and it’s supposed to be fun.  He gets thrown out trying to steal second and he smiles as if to say—“you got me, but I’ll be back.”  He jokes with the Cubs at second base like it’s a spring training game.  And even though I have been waiting a lifetime to win this thing, the kid puts things in perspective.  He enjoyed every minute of it---I love and envy him for it.

In four years we will have another election.  I hope by then I will view those with opposing perspectives from my own with the same good will that Francisco Lindor brings to the ballpark every day.  I hope by then, the Indians will have won a World Series, but I am a Cleveland sports fan and am prepared for disappointment.  In the meantime, I’ll root for our Country and President Trump (that is hard to type) to do well.  But the truth is he is not a likeable guy.  Trump is a thin-skinned jerk—in short, he is a nasty man.  I hope he proves me wrong and does great things for our Country.  He is everything our current President is not.  And for those who voted for him that may be the point.  

It’s been a tough month.  I am ready to move on.  The Browns have me thinking about spring training and the start of next season.  Now if Brantley is healthy and they get another bat and the pitching holds up… this could be the year.

Baver 18-6 ATS Picking Bucks Past Two Years. How Does He See OSU v Mich?

Colin: Where does this rank in the all-time OSU v Michigan match-ups?

Baver: The Ten Year War saw unbeaten, untied OSU & UM teams face each other in ‘70, ‘73, and ‘75. Then you had the #1 vs #2 match-up of unbeatens in 2006. Does it rank up there with those games? Ask me after we know the outcome of The Game tomorrow, LOL.

Colin: What is the best-case scenario for Ohio State in this game?

Baver: 1) Ideal weather conditions; 2) JT Barrett clicking with his WR’s and getting Ohio State’s vertical passing game in gear. 3) The OSU defense completely shutting down De’Veon Smith and Chris Evans; thus, leaving it up to O’Korn or Speight having to beat Ohio State, the nation’s leader in pass defense efficiency, through the air. 4) Mike Weber letting loose.

Colin: What is the worst-case scenario for the Buckeyes?

Baver: 1) The weather unexpectedly turning bad; 2) UM’s offense hitting the Bucks with several big plays, similar to the way Sparty did this past Saturday; 3) Jabrill Peppers having a Charles Woodson kind of game. 4) The turnover margin favoring Michigan to the tune of +2 or better. 

Colin: What is your best guess, realistic scenario for this game?

Baver: With expected mild November weather, I think the Buckeye offense will probably have more success against the vaunted UM defense than most are expecting. I think JT bounces back, and throws the ball much better tomorrow. And I think it will be tough sledding for a UM offense that will likely be missing Wilton Speight. But I think we’ll see a tight game headed into the 4th quarter. Then, I foresee Urban Meyer and this Buckeye team doing what they usually do in tight games….making big plays late and getting it done.

Colin: Which Wolverine should the Buckeyes fear?

Baver: Buckeye fans are probably sick of hearing this, but it’s Jabrill Peppers, far and away.  Is he Heisman-worthy? Probably not, but if Michigan is to break the Buckeye jinx, he will have a big part in the upset. I think he worries me most on punt returns, but he also has 16 tackles for losses on the season, which is pretty crazy.

Colin: Which Buckeye should SCuM fear?

Baver: JT Barrett. Everybody and their brother and sister, myself included, has commented about his inaccuracy this year, and I am guessing UM will underestimate him. As I mentioned, the weather conditions for Saturday look to be mild for late November, and my guess is that JT brings it tomorrow…with his legs and his arm. If he does, Michigan does not win this game.

Colin: What is your favorite Dead Schembechler song?

Baver: “Chad Henne”, without a doubt. Seems like yesterday, the entire crowd at the Newport sang the backup vocals on that one in November 2006. Can’t believe it’s been 10 years. “I Hate Michigan” comes in at #2. Classics. 

Colin: Will you be watching any other games this weekend? And give us an update on your picks.

Baver:  Not a good year outside of Buckeye games (18-19-1 overall), but I continue to have the pulse on the Buckeyes. I’m 8-3 on the season, 18-6 over the last two seasons, and 26-12-1 picking OSU games against the spread over the last three seasons. I have spent the whole week obsessing about The Game and haven’t dove into Vegas spreads yet on any other game. I’d probably stay away from betting this one, but having to make a call, I’ll take the Bucks laying the 6 ½. Urban lives for big games and I stopped doubting him in marquee matchups after the Bama upset in the 2014 Playoff. The call: Ohio State 27 Michigan 17.  

Big Vin Vader Previews and Answers your WWE Survivor Series Questions

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1) So explain who is battling and why is this different than previous Survivor Series?

   The majority of the matches are the traditional Survivor Series Elimination matches.  This year round things are different due to the brand split, which pits the wrestlers on RAW against the SmackDown roster.  First up are the men’s teams, with Kevin Owens, Seth Rollins, Braun Strowman, Chris Jericho, and Roman Reigns representing RAW.  Team SmackDown is composed of AJ Styles, Dean Ambrose, Bray Wyatt, Randy Orton, and Shane McMahon.  
    The women’s teams are: Charlotte, Bayley, Nia Jax, Sasha Banks, and Alicia Fox representing RAW.  SmackDown has Becky Lynch, Alexa Bliss, Nikki Bella, Naomi and Carmella in its corner.
    The final Elimination match is the Tag Teams.  RAW has The New Day, Gallows & Anderson, Sheamus & Cesaro, Enzo & Cass, and the Shining Stars.  SmackDown’s team features American Alpha, Rhyno & Heath Slater, The Hype Bros, Breezango, and the Usos.
    The singles matches sound even more interesting, with Brian Kendrick (RAW) defending the Cruiserweight title against Kalisto (SmackDown).  SmackDown’s The Miz is set to defend his recently-regained Intercontinental belt against RAW’s Sami Zayn.  And the big marquee match, of course, is Goldberg vs. Brock Lesnar.
    This year’s Survivor Series is different for a number of reasons.  Mainly, the pitting of each brand against one another stands out.  WWE has been playing up some imagined rivalry between the two programs, but with the realization of these matches, things are finally being demonstrated physically.  There’s also the notability of Goldberg’s return to the WWE for the first time in over a decade, which places even higher stakes on his rematch with Brock Lesnar.  The fact that each brand has a title on the line, and could lose a belt to their rival brand is pretty significant.  Also, the whole thing is scheduled for four hours, which is usually reserved for the Royal Rumble, Wrestlemania, and Summer Slam. 


2) What is at stake for each team and some of the individuals?


    The biggest stakes are the bragging rights/supposed superiority of one brand over the other.  Interestingly, no world or universal titles are at stake on the card, which keeps the focus on the RAW vs. SmackDown rivalry rather than any brand-specific contenders to titles.  This whole idea finally gives some weight to the idea that the brands are in competition, and are physically settling the matter in a ring.  Also worth considering is the total shaking up of the face-heel dynamic achieved by pitting oppositely-aligned rivals (especially Sasha and Charlotte) on the same teams in the name of brand representation.  We’ve seen conflicts between team members in the past, and now that sworn rivals are forced to cooperate against a supposedly common foe, it’ll be interesting to see how the wrestlers work together.
    The biggest stakes, however, rest on the singles matches.  Firstly, the Cruiserweight and Intercontinental titles stand a chance of switching brands, which could alter each’s program’s roster and overall presentation.  The Miz winning back the IC belt was a surprise, and it seems like they really want to keep it on him.  However, RAW wouldn’t be undeserving of the title, and Sami Zayn is exactly the type of performer who would benefit from the win.  Zayn is incredible in the ring, and is exactly the type of wrestler the belt used to help: not main event status, but an impressive mid-card worker.  Plus, he hasn’t won any titles since making it to the main roster, which stands at odds with his NXT credentials.
    The Cruiserweight match is similar, especially with the threat of the title changing brands.  There was debate that the division should have started on SmackDown, and that’s hard to argue with, given the back-seat treatment it’s been given on RAW.  This would be a good opportunity to switch things up and give the cruiserweights the chance to shine.  SmackDown has the thinner roster of the two brands, so it would be a wise move overall to move things over to them.
    Goldberg vs. Lesnar is a mixed bag.  Goldberg’s return has been teased for months, and anytime Lesnar gets in the ring the company makes a huge deal out of it.  So this is actually a huge marquee match.  The problems lie in its build-up, which has only been a few weeks.  They could have taken time to ratchet up the anticipation, but a quick payoff seems more in line.  Also, their previous match at Wrestlemania XX was abysmal (words really can’t sum it up), so you have to wonder how they’ll handle that knowledge.  It’s a huge draw, and should be worth watching, but something just doesn’t feel right about the whole thing, especially if this is a one-off for Goldberg as has been rumored.


3) Will this have any impact on the Wrestlemania Card? 


    The build to Wrestlemania has definitely already started, and there are a number of things to pay attention to here.  First is the Undertaker’s return on the SmackDown go-home show, which definitely starts the build to his next opponent (if he’s to be featured at all).  Plus, there’s the chance that he’ll make an appearance at the PPV Sunday.
    There are also rumors that the company is planning to kick a major storyline into motion at Survivor Series, which undoubtedly seems like a nod to the biggest event of the year.  People have been saying that Lesnar’s Wrestlemania opponent has been locked-in for some time, so maybe we’ll finally get an inkling of who that specifically is.  Maybe Goldberg’s return will be revealed as more than a one-time thing, and that potential Undertaker match could take place.
    If either the Crusierweight or IC belt were to change hands, it seems likely that a long-term rivalry between brands to regain their “rightful” property would be set in motion.  What better place to settle that dispute than at Wrestlemania?
    Less concrete is the idea that among the brand-specific teams there’s likely to be continuing animosity.  So any mistake or wrong move could set a new feud into motion or prolong a current one, possibly into the Wrestlemania season.

The NCP Responds to Browns' State-of-the-Dawg-Pound Address

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With Big$ out completing his community service this week, K-Dubs, the Soldier responds to the Browns call for the Dawg Pound to "Keep Calm and Bark On."

After its fairly stunning silence during a 0-10 start, the Browns front office held a State-of-the-Team address this week.  The team’s executive vice president Sashi Brown met with the beat writers, trying to reassure them that this disappointing season, which has reached lows previously unseen in franchise history, is simply a part of “The Process.”  Sashi told us the culture truly is changing in Berea and that soon the world will witness the resurrection of the Browns.  Coach Hue Jackson echoed that sentiment this week, admonishing other teams to get their licks in now, because the Browns are going to be Kings of North soon.  What else could they say?  Sure, nobody expected to be winless, yada yada, but evolution is afoot.  It was all monotone platitudes, and while I listened, I recalled Dana Carvey’s impression of President George H.W. Bush: “Stay the course. A thousand points of light.  Stay the course.” 

 

Here is a response to this banality from a proud member of the Dawg Pound: Excuse my doubt, but what the hell am I missing?!  Of course there was going to be a change of culture from last year.  The past few seasons the front office and coaching staff did not [or could not] work together.  The result was a team that had a roster with players that did not fit the coach’s system. 

 

Owner Jimmy Haslem responded by creating a completely new structure of governance and placing a focus on finding value players rather than high-priced free agents.  No doubt these changes would create a new culture, but the time has long passed to show us what this different and more-cohesive vision means on the field.  The defense ranks 31st in yards and points per game and 23rd in sacks.  The team has a minus-5 turnover margin, and the offense has an average time-of-possession that is 6:37 minutes less than opponents.  How is that for analytics?

 

When the season started, I was optimistic that we would begin to see some flashes of forthcoming glory for the new, new Browns, even though I was fairly certain that a 5-win season would be a stretch.  My outlook persisted after some early-year losses in which the team was generally competitive but came up short in tight games.  Things just seem to have gotten worse lately, though.  In the second half against the Cowboys two weeks ago, the offense gained just 33 yards in a deflating defeat.  Then, last week against the Ravens, they had to call a timeout before the very first play of the game because there were 12 defenders on the field.  On the first play!  The D then forced a punt and the two returners, Duke Johnson and Joe Haden, ran into each other and nearly fumbled the ball. 

 

When you see things like this it is so hard to maintain hope.  Where is this change?  To quote recent campaign ads, we're getting "more of the same."  I will keep carrying the torch for now, but patience is getting low.  So when the Browns kick off at home this Sunday against the Steelers, I will be watching and cheering (and drinking Four String Brewing’s Skeleton Red Rye IPA).  What else can I say?

 

So what are the keys to victory this week?:

 

The Browns are going to be playing two opponents on Sunday, Pittsburgh and the weather.  The forecast for kickoff is 35 degrees with a chance of rain and flurries, and wind gusts up to 50 mph!  This may cause havoc for Browns QB Cody Kessler, whose arm is not the strongest.  Coach Jackson pulled Kessler out against the Ravens because he was not pushing the ball down field, but in this wind, I imagine keeping routes short may serve the team better.  Cleveland may have a better chance to get the ground game going against the Steelers, too, because DE and former Buckeye standout Cam Heyward is out with a torn pectoral muscle.  The offense needs to get Isaiah Crowell running downhill to eat up some clock and keep the ball away from Ben Roethlisberger. The harsh winds will also likely cause problems in the kicking game, so field position will be at a premium this week.

 

Speaking of Big Ben, he did miss a game last month with a torn meniscus, and hopefully that injury, coupled with the harsh lakefront weather, will limit his mobility this week.  He is not known as a runner obviously, as he resembles a competitive eater more than he does a track star, but he is one of the all-time greats at avoiding sacks and keeping plays alive by scrambling.  If the Browns really want to exhibit a change in culture, getting some sacks and putting opponents in 3rd-and-long situations more often would certainly help.  Recently acquired OLB Jamie Collins will have another week of practice in this system under his belt, too, and he is a playmaker that should help the Browns improve its 3rd-down conversion rate, which is 50 percent for the year.

 

Of course, there is another force of nature at play in all-world wideout Antonio Brown.  Over the years, he has had huge games against Haden, much like he has against every other DB in the league.  He is probably going to get his catches and yards this Sunday.  Cleveland’s chances of winning are tied then to how well the team contains all the other playmakers for Pittsburgh.  They need to limit yards-after-contact for RB La’Veon Bell, who is also a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield (45 rec., 360 yds.), and keep the ball away from the tight ends, which have killed the Browns this year.  If they can pull it all together, a win over the hated Steelers would be a rare bright spot in The Process.