Picking the Next Round of NFL Playoffs and Trump Prop Bets - Brian Phillips

Well that Wild Card round was a real dumpster fire eh. Four games, four blow-outs.  I picked all the winners anyway, but that wasn't hard to do. This week for the divisional round I'll throw down a score and make a selection against the spread too. Plus, for some fun, I'll include some Trump prop bets from the UK, where those degenerates will bet on anything. 

(Trump lines courtesy of Paddy Power.)

Saturday January 14

Seattle at Atlanta

4:35PM/Fox

Atlanta -4 1/2

Trump to be impeached within 6 months: 4/1

A classic match up of a great Atlanta offense and the always stout Seattle defense. Back in week 6 the Seahawks held off the Falcons at home 26-24, but Atlanta will point to a late non- pass interference call that cost them a chance at a game winning field goal.

 

It was a strange game to be sure. The Falcons erased a 17-3 halftime deficit with three third quarter touchdowns to take the lead at one point. On the sidelines they had the Seattle defense screaming at each other. 

 

This time Atlanta's number one offense gets Seattle at home, and the Seahawks will have to go without injured safety Earl Thomas (out for the season with a broken leg). Running back C.J. Prosise has been upgraded to questionable after missing several weeks. He was huge in wins at New England and home to Philadelphia before getting knocked out against Eagles.

Seattle's terrible offensive line had a good game against Detroit because they could run the ball. If they fall behind and have to throw it's probably over. They literally cannot protect Russell Wilson. 

I'll take Seattle and the points, but Atlanta 28-26
 

Saturday January 14

Houston at New England

8:15pm

CBS

New England -16

Trump paints the White House gold 500 to 1

Vegas can't make this playoff record setting line high enough, and it's not hard to grasp why. If you want to bet against the Pats be my guest, but a lot of people have died on that mountain. Not me. Sure Houston's defense is capable of putting up a decent showing, but once the terrible Brock Osweiler turns the ball over three or four times this baby will turn into a massacre real fast.

Here enjoy this instead. 

I'll give you all of those 16 points and more in taking the Pats.

Patriots 38 Texans 13

Sunday January 15

Green Bay at Dallas

4:40PM

Fox

Dallas -5

Trump says "I'm very rich" during address. 25 to 1

Remember the last time these two met in the playoffs?

Who could forget! Skip Bayless is probably still talking about it. Anyway things are different two years later. The Cowboys have those rookies... Zeke and Dak, and together with that behemoth offensive line Dez Bryant no longer has to do everything. 

I would have picked the Packers here actually as they've looked so good of late, but Jordy Nelson, with his two broken ribs, has been ruled out. 

Brutal man. Yes the rest of the receiving corp has some talent, but are not terribly reliable when you need them most. Green Bay will miss Nelson greatly as they did last season. Meanwhile Dallas fielded the number one defense against the run in 2016 so this is all on Aaron Rodgers.

Want a blueprint for Dallas success Sunday? Look to their regular season tilt at Lambeau this season. Prescott was a tidy 18-27 for 247 yards and three touchdowns and Zeke Elliott rushed 28 times for a 157 yards in a 30-16 victory. That's it, that's the plan.

Green Bay won't turn it over four times as they did that day so I expect this to be a lot closer.

I'll take the Packers and the points, but Dallas 27-24.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City

Sunday January 15

8:20pm

NBC

Kansas City -1

Trump "Golden Shower" footage shows up online: 5/1.

You're not crazy. This game was scheduled for 1pm on Sunday, but the K.C. area is expecting a rather nasty ice storm Sunday To give everyone more time they've moved this one to prime time.

The Chiefs would get more credit here from the bookmakers at home, but the Steelers are a "public team." What that means basically is they have fans all over America and when those bros go to Vegas they get hammered and put their hard earned dough down on their favorite team God damn it! 

The sports books know this. The sharp money meanwhile will flow to the Chiefs. As we get to the weekend more drunk Steelers fans will pour into the casinos... That line will probably move in KC's favor. If I were a gambling man I'd be all over that shit.

The weather is going to be terrible and Big Ben has sucked on the road all year. This has officially become a thing. For whatever reason, he's great at Heinz Field, and almost Brock Osweiler on the road. 

The Chiefs have their own problems. Alex Smith is... Alex Smith. You can only go so far with this guy. KC will try to get things going on the ground with Spencer Ware, and of course a lot of all world tight end Travis Kelce.

For Pittsburgh they have to give the ball to Le'Veon Bell... 30 times at least. That weird hesitation thing he does is really starting to mess my head up. 

 

I'll take the home team with the sharp guys in lousy weather and a push on the -1.

KC 21 Pittsburgh 20.

Brian Phillips hosts the morning show on CD1025

 

 

 

CD102.5 DJ Brian Phillips Breaks Down the NFL Playoffs.

Brian Phillips hosts the morning show on the legendary independent radio station CD1025 in Columbus, OH. Tune in early and often.

Well there it goes... another NFL season gone into the ether. Last year is already long forgotten. Only two of the six NFC teams in the field were here last year (Seattle and Green Bay). While the AFC is more stable, the defending champion Broncos will not defend their title. Such is life in the NFL. The Patriots are good and the Browns are bad and we'll see about the rest. (Though the 49ers, Jags and Rams were pretty embarrassing too.)

Saturday January 7

4:30 PM  -  Oakland at Houston - ABC

Sadly for Raider nation Oakland goes into their first playoff appearance in 14 years without Derek Carr at the helm. He broke his leg week 15 and Matt McGloin left their season finale with a bum shoulder. Now Oakland turns to Michigan State's Connor Cook. No rookie in the Super Bowl era has been made a first time starter in the playoffs. 

There is good news though for the Raiders. The Texans have their own quarterback problems. Late in the season Houston finally pulled the plug on free agent bust Brock Osweiler for Tom Savage, only to have Savage concussed against Tennessee in their season finale. Because of Osweiler's shortcomings I'm certain Houston would love to run the ball, but Lamar Miller is far from 100 percent. This country is filled end to end with fantasy players who's season was ruined after drafting Texans wideout Deandre Hopkins in the first round. If Osweiler could just throw him the ball where he could catch it.... Probably too much to ask. 

The way forward for Oakland is on the ground as well. If Houston's top ranked defense has a relative weakness, it's against the run. Oakland will have to get something from Latavius Murray in this one. 

This may be close to unwatchable for all moms and wives. 

Houston 13 Oakland 10

 

8:30 PM - Detroit at Seattle - NBC

For the Seattle Seahawks this has been a weird year. A 9-3 loss in L.A. A 6-6 tie in Arizona. A loss at New Orleans. Falling 14-5 at Tampa Bay. Nearly losing to the hapless 49ers New Year's Day. And despite all that and more Seattle traveled to New England and beat the Pats back in November. They're hard to figure.

Cheers to long suffering Lions fans for getting into the postseason after the Redskins didn't bother to show up against the Giants January 1. With that result Detroit backs in on a three game losing skid. 

Despite their recent struggles, if the Lions can mount any sort of a pass rush Saturday against Seattle's putrid offensive line, they have a chance. The Seahawks couldn't even protect Russell Wilson at San Francisco, nor could they get much of a running game going. Detroit will have to dial up the pressure early and often and look to make big plays on defense. If Seattle's Thomas Rawls struggles to run again it could be another long day. 

For Seattle this game turns on their defense as well. Matthew Stafford needs to be harried and harassed all night. Zach Zenner gave Detroit's punchless running game a bit of teeth the final two games. They'll need some production from him again here.

Home field and that Seattle defense should be enough to get the Seahawks through this round. (The Lions are 0-10 life time in road playoff games). 

Seattle 20 Detroit 13

 

Sunday January 8th

1:00 PM -  Dolphins @ Steelers - CBS

Can you name the Dolphins starting running back week 1? It was Arien Foster and he's retired now. Against Pittsburgh in week 6 the Dolphins found their running game in Jay Ajayi who abused the Steelers 204 yards. With temps in the lower 20s Sunday and Miami a ten point dog it's a pretty simple formula. Look for Ajayi to get at least 30 carries. Quarterback Matt Moore gets the nod as Ryan Tannehill's balky knee isn't ready. I don't see this as much of an issue. Tannehill isn't that good, and Moore is one of the more capable number twos in the league.

After a week off the Steelers firm of Ben, Brown, and Bell are back. It's not a mystery as to what Pittsburgh wants to do here. Le'Veon Bell will get all the touches he wants as Miami's run defense was near the bottom of the league this year. The big plays will be there in the passing game for Pittsburgh once Bell gets established. I don't see this as much of a contest. 

Pittsburgh 31 Miami 16

4:40pm - New York Giants at Green Bay - Fox

This is the toughest game of the lot to pick, but with the Packers winning six in a row to take another North title it's hard to doubt them. Aaron Rodgers was a cold blooded killer during that run and Jordy Nelson was all world. The mystery is Davante Adams. The kid can play, but has been plagued by a case of the drops. Ty Montgomery gave Green Bay a running threat they had been struggling until late in the season to find, but the Giants have been very stingy against the run (and not terribly giving against the pass for that matter). This game will ride on Aaron Rodgers, which isn't such a bad deal for the Pack. 

Though they found a bit of a ground game of their own late in the year with Paul Perkins (a kid with a ton of potential) the way forward against the Packers is clearly through the air. That will be a huge challenge for the G-Men, especially with temps in the teens at kick off. Only the Texans averaged fewer points per game among the playoff entrants. If the Giants can pull of the upset they'll need Odell Beckham Junior to go off for something like 10/120 and two touchdowns. Eli Manning has been pedestrian all season, but don't sleep on the two time Super Bowl champ in January. 

 

Green Bay 24 NY Giants 17

Baver's Bowl Bets, Starting with the Playoff Semi's

A look at the Playoff Semi-Finals from a betting standpoint, and the two best plays on Monday…

Semi-Final 1, The Peach Bowl - The Play: Washington +14. Taking the points against Saban has not been wise this year, as Bama is 9-3 against the spread. And it might surprise you that, while Washington has had their best season in decades, they are only 7-6 ATS this year. Still, I think the two-touchdown spread is a bit high. I liked Washington a lot more when they were getting 16, but I think they will be hungrier than Bama in this one, and will still cover the 14. And Chris Peterson is 6-3 ATS in bowl games as a head coach. My guess is that Washington hangs around long enough to give Bama a scare. Prediction: Alabama 31 Washington 23.

Semi-Final 2, The Fiesta Bowl - The Play: Clemson +2½. Both Urban and Dabo are very tough to beat in bowl games. I give the slightest edge to Urban in winning the game, while the slightest edge goes to Dabo if you are going to spot him 2½ points. As mentioned in the Pencil Storm game preview, Dabo is 5-0 in his last 5 Bowl/Playoff games. On the flip side, Urban’s record against the spread in games when he has had more than a week to prepare for his opponent is insane. Probably better to lay off this one as a bettor, and just sit back and enjoy. Prediction: Ohio State 30 Clemson 28

The Cotton Bowl - The Play: Wisconsin -8.5. The big fear is: “Does Wisconsin want to be here?” It’s their first major bowl game since 2012 and I think Paul Chryst will have team motivated. I think Wisconsin’s front seven will be too much for the ‘Row the Boat’ crew at WMU. And Chryst always has a nice offensive game plan when he has extra time to prepare. The flip side? Heading into New Year’s Eve, Bowl dogs are 24-8 against the spread. Still, I like Bucky here. Prediction: Wisconsin 34-21

The Rose Bowl - The Play: Southern Cal -7. When you have been as hot as Penn State has been, the last thing you want is a long lay-off. I think that’s huge here. Something has to give as, between the two of them, these teams have covered 14 games in a row. The Nits finish games better than any team in the country, but they also find themselves in early holes far too often. I see Penn State again getting themselves in hole, but this time not being able to dig themselves out. USC is the most talented team Penn State has played since Ohio State in mid-October. In the end, the talent difference is too much for the Nits.  Prediction: USC 35 Penn State 24.

Baver Gives His Prediction on OSU vs Clemson

Colin: Ok, before jumping into the Clemson game, where does that loss to OSU rank among the most painful Michigan losses of all time? Are we finally even for the Cooper years? 

Baver: As bad as any. Their players, fans, and head coach will be talking about the first down spot 25 years from now, still needing tissues when they bring up the matter. Have we offset the Cooper years? Not sure, but life is certainly good right now.

Colin: As crazy as this sounds, is there a chance Clemson may over look Ohio State anticipating a rematch with Alabama? They seem sorta cocky. 

Baver: I don’t think so. I think the Clemson coaches will get their players in the right mindset, and convince them that they will not beat Ohio State if they play like they did in several games during the regular season. It will be the same kind of motivation Urban will use to push his guys.  

Colin: What about this match up favors Ohio State? 

Baver: An opportunist Buckeye defense facing a QB that has thrown 15 picks this season. Clemson WR’s are about as good as it gets, but this is the best pass D Deshaun Watson, Mike Williams, and company will face this year. I think OSU will force Watson to have to do more with his legs than he is used to.  

Staying on that side of the ball, Clemson’s conventional running game with Wayne Gallman is going to struggle against a very stout Buckeye run defense. 

Colin: What should Buckeye fans be concerned about? 

Baver: The fact that Clemson is, at a minimum, on the same level as Ohio State. Most Buckeye fans, or all CFB fans for that matter, underestimate Dabo Swinney. Clemson has been a dog in each of their last 5 playoff/bowl games. Their record in those games? 4-1, with the only loss being to Alabama, in last year’s title game, in a game where Clemson had 31 first downs to Bama’s 18. 

From a matchup standpoint, Buckeye fans should be concerned about Deshaun Watson’s ability to make things happen with his legs. The fact that Watson may have to rely more on his legs may not be a good thing for Ohio State.   

And they certainly need to fear Clemson’s three 300-lb+, mobile D-linemen (Lawrence, Watkins and Wilkins). OSU’s pass protection has not been good against the top D-lines they have faced, and likely can’t win this game if Barrett faces constant pressure. 

Colin: In your heart of hearts, do you really feel this Ohio State team is National Championship caliber? 

Baver: I definitely think Bama is on another level compared to Ohio State. The Buckeye offense will have to make huge strides with their passing game to win a national title. But that doesn’t mean Ohio State is incapable of upsetting the Tide should they get their shot…and underestimating Urban Meyer is not wise.

 Colin: Best case?

 Baver: A game similar to the win in Norman, Oklahoma, where Ohio State controls the game from start to finish, winning by 3 TD’s or so. That would include Barrett uncharacteristically being in sync with his WR’s, and having JT actually be accurate. That would also include a major upgrade in the performance of the Buckeye O-line.  

Colin: Worst case? 

Baver: Knock on wood here…. Even if all the usual Buckeye blunders on offense are on display, i.e. OSU’s pass blocking collapsing, Barrett throwing the ball like Bauserman, OSU coaches forgetting that Curtis Samuel is an actual option, etc.)….I still don’t see Clemson beating Ohio State badly. Ohio State isn’t going to go away, no matter how bad they may play at times during the game. Worst case? I’d say Clemson beating Ohio State by 10 to 14 points. 

Colin: Most realistic case and final thoughts… 

Baver: I see a game that will go back and forth and may very well be decided on the last drive of the game. I’ve been hard on JT, but he is still the guy you want behind center when the game is on the line. These two teams have such similar personalities, where they play their best when their backs are against the wall. I give the Buckeyes the slightest of advantages, but I wouldn’t want to lay points in this one. The Call: Ohio State 30 Clemson 28.

It's Been a Tough Month for this Tribe Fan - by Scott Goldberg

It’s been a tough month.  The World Series didn’t end the way I hoped.  Neither did the presidential election.  If I could choose to change the outcome of one, the Indians would be World Champs.  Call me irrational, a fanatic, or even unpatriotic, but I wanted this more.

As an Indians fan I go pretty far back.  Back to cavernous Municipal Stadium.  The only constant to today’s team is John Adams whacking his drum at the top of the centerfield bleachers.  Back then he was louder; perhaps it was because the sound reverberated off more hard surfaces as most of the time 68,000 or so seats were empty.

I go back to Charlie Spikes, No-Neck Williams, Frank Duffy, Buddy Bell, Super Joe Charbaneau, Rick Manning, Len Barker and Gaylord Perry.  Not a lot of Hall of Famers in that group.  I think Gaylord and his spitter might have snuck in?  I remember the Spring of 1987 getting the Sports Illustrated baseball preview issue with Cory Snyder and Joe Carter on the cover.  SI jinx at its finest.  Carter went on to be a World Series hero—for the Toronto Blue Jays and Cory faded away like so many promising players and teams before and after him.

And then we had the 90’s a baseball renaissance in Cleveland.  Beautiful new ballpark and so many great players fitting of the cathedral they now played in.  Thome, Ramirez, Belle, Baerga, Lofton and Omar.  And just enough strong starting pitching.  The only time I have witnessed a World Series game in person was Game 5 in Cleveland against the Braves.  Albert Belle of the corked bat and probably corked biceps took Greg Maddux deep in the first.  Eddie Murray stepped into the batter’s box next.  Maddux with his pinpoint control threw high and tight.  Murray didn’t like it and glared out at Maddux and Maddux glared right back.  Murray took a step toward the mound, both benches rose to the top step of the dugout.  Nothing more happened, but the moment was as electric as I have ever witnessed as a sports fan.  

Nothing provides more sustained tension than playoff baseball.  It is simply the best, unless your team is involved and then it is just a form of Chinese water torture—if that actually exists, if not it is just plain torture.  Like the 2016 Cubs, the 1995 Indians were down 3-1 and won Game 5 at home.  No one left Jacobs (now Progressive) Field at the end of the game.  We cheered and danced and then took the feeling and party to the streets.  The Indians headed back to Atlanta for the final two games.  But unlike the Cubs , we never got to a Game 7 as Atlanta closed out the series in Game 6.  Glavine pitched eight innings of one-hit baseball and the Tribe lost 1-0.

It wouldn’t take these Indians long to get back to the promised land.  I won’t spend a lot of time revisiting the 1997 World Series other than to say the Indians broke our hearts.  A strike and out away from being World Champs, Jose Mesa couldn’t close it out and the Indians fell in extra innings.  Omar publicly blames Mesa for losing that World Series.  I loved Omar—best fielding shortstop I ever saw.  But he threw a teammate (not a great guy, but a teammate nonetheless) under the bus.  Both Mesa and Omar eventually left the Indians.  And to Mesa’s credit every time he faced Omar after that he threw at him.  I didn’t blame him one bit.

A generation later, the Indians found themselves back in the World Series.  This time with fewer stars except for its manager against a team with an even more pathetic World Series history and drought.  America’s darlings and loveable losers, the Chicago Cubs.  After splitting the first two games in Cleveland, the Indians won the next two in Chicago.  Those fans waited generations to witness a World Series at Wrigley.  Tickets were being sold for the price of a pretty nice mid-sized sedan.  I guess there was some pent up demand in Chi-Town.  And to see their sullen faces as the Tribe took Games 3 and 4 and a commanding 3-1 lead in the Series, was pure joy.  I had no sympathy for them.  This was our time—my time—to finally celebrate a World Series.

Yeah, yeah, I know the Cavs just won.  I love what LeBron has done for Cleveland, but this is different.  This is bigger.  This is Baseball.  It would be great to win the Series in Cleveland in front of its long-suffering fans in our own beautiful park.  But you win a World Series where and when you can.  In all sports and all elections for that matter, you let up at your own peril.  It is better to step on your opponents neck, give them no chance or thought that the outcome can be any different, because if you give them a glimmer of hope---shit happens.

As I replay the Series in my mind, one at bat stands out.  Game 5, eighth inning Indians down 3-2.  Chapman is on the mound with one out and Jason Kipnis at the plate.  Chapman had already gotten the last two outs in the seventh.  Rajai Davis—we wouldn’t know how clutch Rajai was until Game 7-- had singled ahead of Kipnis in the eighth.  Chapman’s first two pitches were close, but both called balls.  Rajai advanced to second with a steal on one of those pitches.  Tying run on second, one out, 2-0 count.  Chapman’s next two pitches were wildly outside, but inexplicably Kipnis swung at both.  Instead of walking, tightening the screws against Chapman with Lindor and Napoli to follow, the count is 2-2.  Kipnis continues to battle.  The count eventually goes full.  Kipnis fouls out.  Chapman settles back in and gets the next four outs with little more drama and gets an eight out, 2 2/3 inning save.  Chapman saved not just the game, but the Cubs season.
        

Back to Cleveland for Games 6 and 7.  If asked after Game 2 any Cleveland fan would have gladly taken coming back to Cleveland up 3-2.  But we are Cleveland fans and there was an uneasiness, even though we had home field advantage.  Except it wasn’t an advantage.  Using the DH was a distinct advantage for the Cubs.  But complaining about the DH or even that home field was decided by an exhibition game in July (coincidently the winning pitcher of which happened to be the Indians starting pitcher in Games 1, 4 and 7 of this World Series), is like complaining about the electoral college after your candidate loses.  Dem’s da rules.

Even worse was the fact that Progressive Field was not filled with just rabid Indians fans.  But somehow a good third of the crowd happened to rooting loudly for the Cubbies.  By Games 6 and 7 you could no longer trade in your well-appointed Toyota Camry for a pair of good seats.   Cubs fans had raised the ante, now you were looking at a year’s tuition at a pretty fine academic institution in order to get a pair of tix.  Cubs fans threw around cash and bought up the best seats acting like a greedy New York real estate developer.

The Cubs started hitting when they got back to Cleveland.  Zobrist may have been MVP of the Series, but it was Bryant and Rizzo who the Indians feared.  And rightfully so.  Rizzo—something about him reminds me of Phil Mickelson.  They both have just a hint of dimples that might be more pronounced if their faces were a little thinner.  Both have this smirk that seems to say-- even when things are going bad—I am so much better off than you it really doesn’t matter.

The Tribe moved most of its team to the right side of second base when Rizzo batted.  Yet, when he wasn’t sending laser foul balls that made fans scatter, the fair balls improbably reached the outfield wall slicing between all those well-placed defenders, the way a pinball slides between your flippers before disappearing down that hole.  To my eye, Kris Bryant was the Cubs MVP.  His stats may not bear that out, but to me his hits and home runs either set the tone for the game or slammed the door shut on any hope the Indians had for a comeback.  He did make some errors, but as the last ball of the Series rolled his way, you could see in his face that the Cubs were World Champs.  The bastard was smiling even before the ball met his glove.  As I watched my hopes fade, I knew this was not a guy about to choke.  And he didn’t.      

Other than that Game 5 at bat, I don’t look back at the Series with regret.  We didn’t get out-managed, or out-played, or out-pitched.  Almost everyone did their job.  Some exceeded expectations—Rajai Davis’ game tying homer sent me sprinting around the house in which all other inhabitants had gone peacefully to sleep.  “He tied the game, he tied it up,” I screamed in utter disbelief.

Some disappointed. Mike Napoli didn’t hit, but that happens.  I know Tyler Naquin is only a rookie, but he is also a big league (bigly?) outfielder.  Go get the ball and take charge. That is your job in centerfield.  Game 7 was too big for him.  I hope he will have a chance to redeem himself, but he was the Game 7 goat and I mean that in the old-school sense.  Just a few thoughts on Francisco Lindor.  Omar Vizquel is certainly the best Indians shortstop of my lifetime and perhaps a Hall of Famer soon.  But if I could have the 2016 Lindor or Omar in his prime, I choose Lindor.  He’s no Omar in the field, but he is a Gold Glover.  And the kid can hit.  Solid at bat after solid at bat all Series.  But all that pales in relation to his temperament.  I know we have all heard more than we care to about temperament.  But Francisco plays with such joy, his smile is so infectious, he just pulls you in.  He keeps his teammates loose; he is a reminder that this is just a game and it’s supposed to be fun.  He gets thrown out trying to steal second and he smiles as if to say—“you got me, but I’ll be back.”  He jokes with the Cubs at second base like it’s a spring training game.  And even though I have been waiting a lifetime to win this thing, the kid puts things in perspective.  He enjoyed every minute of it---I love and envy him for it.

In four years we will have another election.  I hope by then I will view those with opposing perspectives from my own with the same good will that Francisco Lindor brings to the ballpark every day.  I hope by then, the Indians will have won a World Series, but I am a Cleveland sports fan and am prepared for disappointment.  In the meantime, I’ll root for our Country and President Trump (that is hard to type) to do well.  But the truth is he is not a likeable guy.  Trump is a thin-skinned jerk—in short, he is a nasty man.  I hope he proves me wrong and does great things for our Country.  He is everything our current President is not.  And for those who voted for him that may be the point.  

It’s been a tough month.  I am ready to move on.  The Browns have me thinking about spring training and the start of next season.  Now if Brantley is healthy and they get another bat and the pitching holds up… this could be the year.

Baver 18-6 ATS Picking Bucks Past Two Years. How Does He See OSU v Mich?

Colin: Where does this rank in the all-time OSU v Michigan match-ups?

Baver: The Ten Year War saw unbeaten, untied OSU & UM teams face each other in ‘70, ‘73, and ‘75. Then you had the #1 vs #2 match-up of unbeatens in 2006. Does it rank up there with those games? Ask me after we know the outcome of The Game tomorrow, LOL.

Colin: What is the best-case scenario for Ohio State in this game?

Baver: 1) Ideal weather conditions; 2) JT Barrett clicking with his WR’s and getting Ohio State’s vertical passing game in gear. 3) The OSU defense completely shutting down De’Veon Smith and Chris Evans; thus, leaving it up to O’Korn or Speight having to beat Ohio State, the nation’s leader in pass defense efficiency, through the air. 4) Mike Weber letting loose.

Colin: What is the worst-case scenario for the Buckeyes?

Baver: 1) The weather unexpectedly turning bad; 2) UM’s offense hitting the Bucks with several big plays, similar to the way Sparty did this past Saturday; 3) Jabrill Peppers having a Charles Woodson kind of game. 4) The turnover margin favoring Michigan to the tune of +2 or better. 

Colin: What is your best guess, realistic scenario for this game?

Baver: With expected mild November weather, I think the Buckeye offense will probably have more success against the vaunted UM defense than most are expecting. I think JT bounces back, and throws the ball much better tomorrow. And I think it will be tough sledding for a UM offense that will likely be missing Wilton Speight. But I think we’ll see a tight game headed into the 4th quarter. Then, I foresee Urban Meyer and this Buckeye team doing what they usually do in tight games….making big plays late and getting it done.

Colin: Which Wolverine should the Buckeyes fear?

Baver: Buckeye fans are probably sick of hearing this, but it’s Jabrill Peppers, far and away.  Is he Heisman-worthy? Probably not, but if Michigan is to break the Buckeye jinx, he will have a big part in the upset. I think he worries me most on punt returns, but he also has 16 tackles for losses on the season, which is pretty crazy.

Colin: Which Buckeye should SCuM fear?

Baver: JT Barrett. Everybody and their brother and sister, myself included, has commented about his inaccuracy this year, and I am guessing UM will underestimate him. As I mentioned, the weather conditions for Saturday look to be mild for late November, and my guess is that JT brings it tomorrow…with his legs and his arm. If he does, Michigan does not win this game.

Colin: What is your favorite Dead Schembechler song?

Baver: “Chad Henne”, without a doubt. Seems like yesterday, the entire crowd at the Newport sang the backup vocals on that one in November 2006. Can’t believe it’s been 10 years. “I Hate Michigan” comes in at #2. Classics. 

Colin: Will you be watching any other games this weekend? And give us an update on your picks.

Baver:  Not a good year outside of Buckeye games (18-19-1 overall), but I continue to have the pulse on the Buckeyes. I’m 8-3 on the season, 18-6 over the last two seasons, and 26-12-1 picking OSU games against the spread over the last three seasons. I have spent the whole week obsessing about The Game and haven’t dove into Vegas spreads yet on any other game. I’d probably stay away from betting this one, but having to make a call, I’ll take the Bucks laying the 6 ½. Urban lives for big games and I stopped doubting him in marquee matchups after the Bama upset in the 2014 Playoff. The call: Ohio State 27 Michigan 17.