Baver's Buckeye Bag 9/2/14


Baver's Buckeye Bag 9/2/14

Click here for previous Baver's Buckeye Bag

First, some thoughts on the Navy game. 

Let's start with the good news.  The Bucks held Navy to 17 points, and 7 of those points, you can argue, should have come off the board with the blown sideline call on Navy's first TD.  JT Barrett settled down after a shaky start and put up nice numbers for a kid who had no CFB playing experience prior to Saturday.   The offense and defense both stepped up in the 4th quarter to turn a tight game into a 34-17 victory, and the Bucks are 1-0.

On the flip side, after having a month-plus to prepare for Navy's triple option, the Buckeye defense gave up 370 yards on the ground at a staggering 5.9 yards per clip.  Even though OSU won't have to face another offense that is anything like Navy's this season, those numbers are more than concerning.  There were several comments by OSU defensive players in the weeks leading up to the game that, I thought, were borderline arrogant.  The Buckeye D was pretty confident that they were going to shut down Navy's triple option, but I think, got a taste of some humble pie.

Now, some quick hitters, looking at both the good and the bad from Saturday's game:

  • You have to love how JT Barrett responded after the bad pick he threw in the 2nd quarter.  Didn't seem fazed, and showed fans what the coaches have been talking about - that Barrett has the demeanor you want in a Buckeye QB.

  • Navy usually finishes strong, but was completely gassed in the 4th quarter.  The two big-play OSU TD's (Lee's fumble return & the 80-yard TD pass to Devin Smith) sucked all of the air out of the Navy D.  The Bucks followed Smith's TD with a 10-play, 80-yard drive, then an 8-play, 70-yard drive, and that was all she wrote.

  • Back to the problems defending the option....the first half was pretty much what I expected - the Buckeye D struggled at times, but didn't let the Navy option hurt them too badly.  I thought things would get better for Ohio State after OSU's halftime adjustments.  Wrong.  It was Navy's offense making the proper halftime adjustments, and gashing Ohio State's D for almost 200 yards on the ground in the 3rd quarter alone.

  • The Buckeye defense keyed on Navy star-QB Keenan Reynolds, holding him to a net 42 yards. That would have been commendable, had the OSU D not given up 328 yards combined to the Navy TB's & FB's, at 8.2 yards a pop.  Yeah…it was difficult to watch at times.  But at least they kept Navy out of the end zone for the most part, which is why Ohio State is 1-0 right now.

  • The Bucks did however make the proper adjustments after the pass blocking issues in the 1st quarter.  Not sure why they flip-flopped RG Pat Elflein and LG Billy Price to start the game.  From what I saw after that, Elflein was back at right guard most of quarters 2, 3 & 4, with Price and Joel Hale alternating at LG.  Meyer said the lack of downfield passes early were because of the O-line issues, not Barrett.  I actually think it was both.

  • You have to love the having “combo” (run/catch) guys like Dontre Wilson, Jalin Marshall and Curtis Samuel.  Wilson and Samuel just missed taking a couple plays to the house.  Wilson definitely looked improved, and Marshall and Samuel were as advertised - these guys are going to cause defenses major problems when the O-line and Barrett get past some of the learning curve.

Now the attention turns to Virginia Tech, another game that I think will be hard to watch at times for OSU fans.  Virginia Tech had the #1 rated pass defense (efficiency wise) in 2013 and returns all 4 starters from their secondary.  They were 23.5 pt favorites over William & Mary in the opener, winning (and covering) 34-9.  As of the time of this blog, the Bucks were an 11-point favorite over the Hokies, but I think the line is too high.  I expect a dog fight.

Taking a closer look at the Hokies, this is a team that is only 16-13 over their last 29 games.  So, I am probably not the only person that has used the "jumped the shark" term, when talking about VT Head Coach Frank Beamer.  But at this early point in the 2014 season, I don't think Ohio State looks that much better on paper than Va Tech.  It also concerns me that Va Tech likely spent considerably more time in fall camp preparing for Ohio State than the Buckeyes did preparing for them.  You can't concentrate on your Week #2 opponent in August when you open against the Navy option attack.  The Hokies, on the other hand, could afford to sneak in some early prep work for the Buckeyes, with William & Mary on tap for their opener.

Va Tech returns 8 starters on offense from their 2013 squad and 5 on defense, with 4 of those 5 being their entire defensive backfield, as mentioned above.  That means they return only one of their front seven on D.  So, you know where the Hokies' strength lies and where the question marks are on defense.  But even with the losses on the D-line (with DT Luther Maddy being the only returning starter), this should be a solid Va Tech D-line, and an upgrade from what the Bucks faced against Navy.  On offense, Texas Tech transfer QB Michael Brewer now runs the show and the Hokies have a potential immediate star in true-frosh TB Shai McKenzie.  But like Ohio State, the O-line is one of the biggest question marks on the VT offense.

The Buckeyes are going to have to build on their offensive effort in the 2nd half against Navy, when the O-line, Barrett and Zeke Elliott got things going.  They are going to have major problems throwing the ball downfield against the Hokies, even with VT likely selling out to stop the Buckeye run.  Va Tech can afford to leave their elite corners (Brandon Facyson & Kendall Fuller) on their respective islands, and dare JT Barrett to throw the ball vertically against them.

The good news for Ohio State is...Va Tech's offense isn't going to cause the Buckeye D the problems that Navy did.  The VT O-line is outmanned in the interior against Adolphus Washington and Michael Bennett, as most teams are.  I'd love to have Noah Spence for this one, but he must sit out this game as the last of his three-game suspension.  Regardless, I have a feeling either Steve Miller or Rashad Frazier makes a big play in Spence's place on Saturday.

Bottom Line: I expect a fairly low scoring game that goes down to the wire, with the Buckeyes again putting things together late and getting it done.  But I am hearing too many Buckeye fans expecting a beat down.  I think those fans are probably underestimating the Hokies and are expecting Ohio State to magically get past all the growing pains in one week.  We shall see, but I like Ohio State 24-17.

Baver Answers Colin's College Football Questions. Week One.

Click Here For 'Baver's Buckeye Bag, OSU v Navy'

Each week, Pencilstorm editor Colin G. will pose some questions to our resident college football know-it-all Brent Baver about the upcoming weekend. Feel free to e-mail your questions for the Baver to:  pencilstorm@gmail.com


1) Wouldn't you agree that any Ohio State fan that pays to subscribe to the SEC Network might as well write a check to the Alabama Crimson Tide general recruiting fund?

I wouldn’t look at it that way.  Let’s face it…the SEC is playing at another level right now, when compared to the Big Ten and most of the other conferences.  I root against the SEC in just about every game they play against any other conference, but I’m not boycotting the SEC network.  I get too much enjoyment out of watching the better teams in college football square off.  The Texas A&M upset of 'Bama in Alabama in 2012 was as good as it gets.  Now, that game probably wouldn’t have been on the SEC network if the network was around two seasons ago.  But, good college football is good college football.  Enjoy it if you’ve got the time and money.

2) Wisconsin is finally playing a decent school in the non-conference schedule. What are the chances Bucky Badger doesn't embarrass the Big Ten in the match up with LSU?

I don’t think Wisconsin will embarrass the Big Ten, but if I’m a bettor, I like LSU laying the points (currently 5) in this one.  Overall, the Big Ten doesn’t fair well when they travel this far and play a team like LSU.  And Les Miles thrives on these types of games.  But this doesn’t appear to be one of LSU’s better teams; lots of newcomers.  Wisconsin had to replace their entire front seven on D, but has one of the best rushing attacks in the country.  Can Wisky run the ball effectively against LSU?  Not so sure.  Can LSU run the ball effectively against the Badgers?  I think so, and I think that will be the difference.  I’m rooting for the Big Ten here, but I think LSU wins this one by 10 to 14 points.

3) Does App State have any chance to pull another upset on Michigan?

The chances are slightly better than none.  The Mountaineers are now in the FBS (formerly called D1-A), having played their last football in the FCS (formerly called D-1AA) this past season.  But that doesn’t matter.  What matters most is that Michigan will be much more focused than they were in 2007, and should hammer Appy State.  Michigan is going to want to make a statement.  And this year’s Appalachian State team is simply not as good as their 2007 team, despite their step up to the FBS.  The spread is somewhere around 5 TD’s for a reason and the 2007 upset is the type of upset that happens maybe once in every 1,000 CFB games played.

4) If Michigan loses, is that the end of Brady Hoke?

If they lose to Appy State again?  I would say yes….the 2014 season would be Hoke’s last as Michigan head coach, although I’d think he’d make it to the end of the regular season.  But again, I think Michigan will roll the Mountaineers, and I tend to think Brady Hoke will be back at Michigan in 2015.  Their defense is much improved, and I think he can survive an 8-4 year, which is where I think Michigan will end up (prior to the bowl season).  Would a coach survive with the same 4-year record at Ohio State?  Don’t think so.

5) If you were a gambling man, what games/lines do you like for this first weekend of college football?

I loved Arkansas getting 21.5 against Auburn, but that line has since dropped to 19, so I wasn’t the only one who liked getting 3 TD's-plus.  Arkansas should be much improved and Auburn has a bull’s-eye on their chest after their run last year.  I think the Florida State – Oklahoma State game will be another beatdown, much like most Florida State games a year ago.  Oklahoma State lost everybody and the ‘Noles look even better on paper this year than they did a year ago.  And I like Virginia getting 3 TD’s at home against UCLA.  UCLA has to travel across the country, and that is so much of a bigger deal than most people think it is.  The Bruins are improved, but the Cavs will show bigger improvement in ’14 than the Bruins.

Watershed Really Blew It (Again), By Not Playing FMMF by Jeff Hassler

Well, the big weekend has finally arrived! The Fashion Meets Music Festival is taking Columbus - and the United States - by storm. THIS is the festival that will put Columbus on the map. THIS is the festival that will dwarf Comfest and rival SXSW for national credibility. And you know who turned down the opportunity to perform? You guessed it, my pals in Watershed. 

What makes it worse is that Colin didn't even ask the other guys in the band if they were interested in doing it. As hard as this is to believe, I happened to be standing with Colin both times he was asked. Once at a certain coffee shop, and once before a happy hour show at a music club in Grandview. Both times he nearly cut off the person asking by quickly responding, "Thanks for the offer, but we aren't available during that time. Good luck!"

I happened to know that Watershed was more than available during "that time" since we are having our  Pencilstorm fantasy football draft that same weekend. When I asked politely why he was so quick to dismiss such an opportunity at a new, first class festival he got short with me as usual. 

"Hassler, look at me. Look at what I am wearing. Why would Watershed perform at a Fashion Festival? I mean, I write songs because pretty boys who dressed nice got all the girls in high school anyway. At least the ones left over from the jocks. What's next? Should we play at Reggae fest? Or maybe between matches at the state high school wrestling tournament?"

See what I mean? Such a smart ass. Well, I hate to break the news to Colin, but once again, the joke is on him. Turns out they could have possibly been opening for O.A.R., one of the hottest most respected rock bands in the world. For a band like Watershed, that is most famous for having a book about them called, "Hitless Wonder," you would think Colin would recognize this could be THE BIG BREAK to signing with another major label. FMMF is going to as big as SXSW (or at least NXNW) and WSHED might have had a plum spot. We will never know. Think of all the successful music executives from LA and New York who could have turned out to catch their set. 

To make matters worse, Colin and the Watershed guys are all excited to drive 600 miles to open for Cheap Trick at the House of Blues in Myrtle Beach in October. OK, let's play Rock Manager 101: Option #1) Drive 600 miles to open for a band not even in the Rock n Roll Hall of Fame; or #2) Drive 5 miles to open for a band - OAR - that most likely WILL make the Rock n Roll Hall of Fame. 

In full disclosure, I have to admit I am a huge OAR fan going back to my fraternity days at OSU. In fact, my ex-wife Kim and I got pinned right before at one of their early shows at the PHI Delts Nookiefest party. (Lighten up, all proceeds went to stop human trafficking, or at least that's what the frat brothers told Kim.) It was obvious that night these guys were going to be stars. At least what I remember from it. Long story!

Anyway, because the Watershed guys are my friends and I want what's best for them I tried to appeal to Ricki C. to talk some sense into Colin. I mean, Ricki loves arguing about the Rock n Roll Hall of Fame. I would have expected him to see my point. I had Ricki check out the FMMF website and all he said was, "Jeff, the opening sentence of their press release has a grammatical error in it, and the second paragraph has a misspelled word, which in my eyes tends to undermine the hugeness of the event, in that they couldn't be bothered to hire a semi-competent copywriter and/or proofreader.  And if it is indeed 'The Nations...largest and first collaborative fusion festival,' doesn't it follow that it also  could be the first and smallest, the first and mangiest, the first and hungriest, the first and stupidest? I mean, it is the first one, after all."

Leave it to Ricki C. to get all bogged down in grammar.  

When I made one last appeal to Colin to reconsider, I argued how fashion had indeed influenced his music. "How is that, Hassler?"

"Uh, maybe your biggest song, "BLACK CONCERT T SHIRT?"

"Jeff, will you please, please, just shut up."

OK, Colin, have it your way, but don't blame me when all the other bands at FMMF get signed and once again you guys are left wondering what went wrong.

I love ya brother, but you blew this one. Just sayin'. 

Jeff Hassler is recently divorced and lives in a one bedroom apartment near Grandview Yards.

Click here to read his other stories featuring Bon Jovi, Kiss and Dead Schembechlers.

 

OK, Hassler here again, Don't take my word for it. Check out this clip of OAR performing live at Madison Square Garden playing my favorite OAR song, "Crazy Game of Poker". If you look close before the first chorus you can see my ex-wife Kim briefly (though we were "taking a break" from dating that Spring. Long story!) This song has it all: balls, reggae, great lyrics and showmanship. Below that is some clip of Cheap Trick that Colin makes me sit through every time he has more than eight beers so needless to say, I have seen it A LOT. It is in some park or something. Sad, really. I think you will see my point. Hassler is out.

O.A.R. - Headed to the Rock n Roll Hall of Fame.....

Cheap Trick, not in the Rock Hall of Fame.... 

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Baver's Buckeye Bag, OSU v Navy - by Brent Baver


Baver’s Buckeye Bag 8/26/14  - OSU v Navy 

 

Let’s try to answer some of the popular questions everyone is asking….

How in the world do you replace Braxton Miller?

You don’t.  I can’t remember a time when Ohio State lost as much going from QB1 to QB2.  This isn’t so much because of “who” the backups are, but because of “where” the backups are right now compared to Braxton, a former Heisman frontrunner.  With the loss of Miller, the sportsbooks have moved their lines in games involving Ohio State, anywhere from 3 1/2 to 5 1/2 points per game.  (That includes “Games of the Year” lines.)  I think JT Barrett will be a good one before he leaves OSU, but it’s hard for me to see him being game-ready at this point in his career.  And I’m not sure Barrett has 100% of his mobility back from his 2012 ACL tear. 

I’m not ruling out Cardale Jones yet.  Barrett will get the first shot, but the coaches may want to take a look at Jones at some point against Navy, regardless of how Barrett plays.   Of the two, Barrett is more accurate and appears to have better control of the offense right now.  But Cardale has an NFL arm, and although maybe not quite as mobile as Barrett, Jones moves well for a 250-pound guy.  Whether it’s Jones or Barrett, the new QB will be on a tighter leash than Braxton was.  Urban Meyer and Tom Herman will count on Dontre Wilson and the tailbacks to shoulder the load and will limit the chances of QB miscues costing them a game.

I don’t want to sell doom and gloom here; the good news is that the Miller injury will push the rest of this team.  The OSU players that talk to the media will get sick of answering Braxton Miller questions.  Winning the Big Ten is certainly still a reasonable goal.   As for the national title, it’s definitely a longer shot, but the 2002 Ohio State team showed you what can happen if you catch some breaks.  

Click here for Braxton Miller Highlights. 

How do you replace Carlos Hyde and 4 starters from an elite O-line? And who are the new faces?

The Bucks don’t have a tailback on the roster that can put up the numbers that Hyde did a year ago, but they still have plenty of talent and depth.  If healthy, a bulked-up Ezekiel Elliott (reportedly 225 lbs) will get the first shot at TB, and Zeke should “eventually” be a good one.  Next in line is Rod Smith, who had a nice fall camp.  Smith still needs to show that he can hang onto the football and stay out of Urban’s dog house, or Brionte Dunn and/or true frosh Curtis Samuel may play into the TB mix.

On the O-line, Taylor Decker, the lone returning starter, slides from RT to LT.  He should be solid and I don’t expect much of a downgrade from Mewhort to Decker, if any at all.  Pat Elflein played pretty well in place of Marcus Hall late last year, and should be solid at RG.  As of 8/25, it was still up in the air as to who the starters at LG (Joel Hale, Billy Price or Antonio Underwood) and at center (Jacoby Boren or Bama transfer Chad Lindsay) would be.  Daryl Baldwin is said to have made some strides at RT.  You may see some growing pains at LG and center, but O-line coach Ed Warinner is as good as it gets, and I expect this line to be solid once they settle in.

With Chris Ash brought in as “Co-Defensive Coordinator”, what changes will we see?

Although I can’t 100% confirm this, everything I hear is that Ash will ultimately be calling the shots for the Buckeye defense this year.  I wouldn’t get too hung up on titles, so Chris Ash having the “co-DC” title and Luke Fickell having the “DC” title (without the “co-“) doesn’t mean much.  I love Luke Fickell, but let’s face it…you don’t charge $80 to $140 a ticket and pay Urban Meyer $4.5 mil-plus per year, then turn around and play defense like OSU did last season.

The specific changes?  It will be more of an aggressive approach, with the corners playing tight coverage and no longer ceding the short gains.  The strong-side LB spot will now be manned by a defender more adept at stopping the pass; the top two SLBs, Darron Lee and Christopher Worley, are both former safeties.  Continuing with that theme, the nickelback will now likely be a cornerback, as opposed to a safety that often manned that spot in the past.  Ash has said that they will normally play their base defense (3 LBs, 4 DBs) on 1st and 2nd downs, regardless of the number of WRs their opponent lines up.  Lee and Worley are smaller LBs that Ash believes can hold their own in pass coverage and still be physical defending the run.

Is the Buckeye D-line really as good as they say it is?

Let’s just say “potentially”.  It had been a long time since we had seen a true-frosh DE play the way Joey Bosa did last year; probably have to go back to Vrabel/Finkes in ‘93.  Bosa is a beast.  You have Noah Spence, a probable 1st round draft pick, opposite Bosa.  There is another possible first round draft pick in DT Michael Bennett.  Adolphus Washington slides down to DT.  Washington has been slowed by injuries in the past, but he may have more upside than the other three heralded starters.  If healthy, this unit is, at the very least, the best D-line in the Big Ten.

But I am not sure it is as deep as people think it is.  Backup DT Donovan Munger should be a star before he leaves here.  Tommy Schutt, Chris Carter and Michael Hill are also solid backup DTs.  But you don’t have that depth at DE, with Steve Miller being the only backup with legit playing experience.  Bosa and Spence have to stay healthy, and you unfortunately have Spence missing the first two games, serving a suspension.

Tell me about Navy and Saturday’s matchup.

The last time the Bucks faced Navy (2009), it wasn’t pretty, with OSU stopping a late two-point conversion to hang on.  Navy still runs their flexbone triple option and it’s still “not fun” to defend.  QB Keenan Reynolds runs the Navy offense and put up big time numbers last year (1,346 rushing yds & 31 rushing TDs).  As mentioned, Ash wants to play his base defense (3 LBs, 4 DBs) most of the time, and against Navy’s option, you will see the Bucks in the nickel even less often. 

The Bucks need to get Dontre Wilson going on offense, and a tailback (be it Zeke, R. Smith or whoever) needs to step up.  It will certainly help matters if Barrett shows Navy that he can throw the ball downfield.  Otherwise, the Navy defense will make sure Wilson doesn’t kill them on the edge.  I am not totally buying the hype that this OSU LB core is better than last year’s when Ryan Shazier was around.  If the Buckeye defense doesn’t play fundamental, assignment football, the Navy option attack will surely put points on the board. 

I expect this Buckeye team to be sky high for this one, wanting to show the rest of the nation that they are a national contender without Braxton Miller.  In the end, I think the Bucks make enough big plays and play “good enough” defense to get it done.

Prediction: Ohio State 38 Navy 21.

Secret Bonus Track….


Pencilstorm Returns Monday with a Major Announcement. Tuesday, Premier of Baver's Buckeye Bag

Well, it's been a long hot weekend in Columbus, but we have finally about finished moving into our new offices on Nationwide Blvd.  And to reward your patience, we will be back online Monday August 25th and kicking off the week with a concert announcement sure to make your day.

Tuesday, August 26th I am very excited to announce the premier of a weekly feature - Baver's Buckeye Bag - covering Ohio State Football. Obviously. Duh. 

Brent Baver is one of the original and best Buckeye Football bloggers and after one tour of our new offices we convinced him to take his talents to Pencilstorm. I know you have many choices when looking for Buckeye coverage, but trust me when I tell you, Baver is worth your time each and every week. Please give it a shot and I am sure you will agree. 

Shit, got to run, Hassler and Phillips almost just dropped the kegerator down three flights of stairs. See you Monday! And don't forget to tell one person a week about Pencilstorm. - Colin G.