5-3!!!...for now. NCP examines Browns vs. Bengals

Don't forget to follow the NCP @northcoastposse for snark, analysis and deep thoughts during the game

So, 5-3, not bad huh?

Big$- I am actually tickled pink with the 5-3 record, especially since I only predicted a 4-win season back in early September. However, it’s time to temper the exuberance again as we approach Thursday night. I got a bit over my skis last week when I called for a blowout of the Buccaneers, that's just not who this team is. The fact that they are even competitive with the loss of 3 offensive Pro-Bowlers is a testament to the veteran leadership still standing (especially Mr. Hoyer). With that said, I have lost sleep this week envisioning the curb-stomping the Bengals D-line is going to lay on poor li'l Nick McDonald. Peko and Adkins are top notch DT's who have probably created a fishing pond of drool in the Bengals film room after setting their eyes on the green backup center. The O is predicated on the run setting up the play action and I expect the Browns to be running about as successfully Ed FitzGerald this Sunday. To digress, 5-4 still isn't that bad and I see 4 winnable games left on the schedule after this week (Hou, Atl, Buf and Carolina). If this team is 9-7, I think it can be considered a smashing success for the new regime.

 K-Dubs, the Soldier- As I have said nearly every week so far, at least the Browns games aren’t boring (except the loss to Jacksonville).  For the second week in a row, the Browns played a tight game against a bad team with a young quarterback.  But for the second week in a row, they came out with a win.   In hanging tough for four quarters, though, the Buccaneers further exposed the Browns’ persistent weaknesses.  Tampa’s front four bullied the Browns offensive line, bottling up the running game (50 yards on 28 carries) and tallying three sacks.  I hope this short game-week has given backup center Nick McDonald enough time to get the grass stains out of the back of his jersey.  Hoyer’s completion percentage was better than in recent weeks (21 for 34, 61.8%), but he missed some open throws again.  Of particular note was an off-target throw to a wide-open Ben Tate in the right flat.  Tate caught the ball, but the poor throw ultimately forced him out at the 5 yard line.  They had to settle for a field goal but would have had a sure touchdown in Hoyer could hit him in stride.  On the defensive side, the Browns again made a practice-squad running back look like a Pro-Bowler, as Bobby Rainey racked up 87 yards on 19 carries.   They are beating the bad teams, though, and making the plays when they need to.  These are signs of a team moving in the right direction.

 Where would you start LeBron this week?

Big$ - I'm actually giving LeBron the week off from football this week. After watching the Portland game, he has enough basketball issues to sort out.

 K-Dubs, the Soldier- I’m lining up LeBron again as the punt returner this week.  The Browns have yet to find someone reliable to field kicks.  Coach Pettine sent in Jim Leonhard to return punts last week because his sure hands offered a safer alternative to the big-play-but-butterfingered-potential of Jordan Poyer and Travis Benjamin.  A funny thing happened on the way to the hash marks, however.  Leonhard forgot to actually catch the punt.  Although the special teams played exceptionally overall last week, with a blocked punt, a blocked field goal, and converting three Billy Cundiff field goals, the Browns need to be more efficient in the return game to maximize field position against quality teams like the Bengals.

Prediction:

 Big$- Well, I think I kind of showed my cards earlier in this entry. I don't expect a competitive game as the injury riddled Browns are currently less-ready-for-primetime than Garrett Morris and Gilda Radner combined. I’d love to be wrong but I am calling for a Bengals 31-10 victory.

K-Dubs, the Soldier-  The Bengals seem to flitter between legitimate contenders and mediocrity from week to week, but I think that is only because the schedule requires them to play road games.  They are extremely tough when playing at home, going 13-0-1 in their last 14 games in Porkopolis.  If you think that is impressive, check this out: The Browns have lost their last 18 divisional road games since beating the Bengals early in the 2008 season.   I really don’t see either streak breaking this week.  Bengals starting running back Giovanni Bernard was out last week, and may miss the Browns game, as well, but the team remained committed to the run.  Bernard’s replacement, rookie Jeremy Hill, gained 154 yards on the ground last week against Jacksonville, and showed some explosiveness on a 60-yard touchdown run.  That is bad news for the Browns, which ranks 31st in the league in rushing defense, surrendering 140.2 yards per game.  And while star receiver A.J. Green has been banged up this year, counterpart Mohamed Sanu has emerged as a threat, gaining 628 yards through the first eight games of the season.  The Browns cornerbacks not named Joe Haden are really going to have to step up to help contain Cincinnati’s passing game.  I am not hopeful of that, though, as the giant Buccaneers’ receivers put up big numbers last week when Haden was not covering them (Mike Evans-124 yards, 2 TDs; Vincent Jackson-86 yards).  The Browns D is improving, but that improvement is very gradual, as the team still ranks 28th in total yards allowed per game.  I expect the Bengals to be able to control the clock and move the chains on third down.

On the other side of the ball, I echo Big$’s concerns about the ability of the Bengals defensive line to plug up the running game and get pressure on Hoyer.   All-world linebacker Vontaze Burfict (171 tackles in 2013) and cornerback Leon Hall are both out with injuries, and linebacker Rey Maualuga is also doubtful.  The Browns need to take advantage of these losses by attacking the edges and using Coach Shannahan’s misdirection passing game to avoid the penetration from the Bengals down linemen.  The Browns will likely move the ball against the Bengals, whose defense has fallen in the ranks precipitously from the beginning of the season and now ranks 31st in total yardage allowed.  With tight end Jordan Cameron still out with a concussion and a running game that has been missing-in-action for a month, though, I do not see the Browns putting up enough points to win.  I hope I am wrong, but I think Cincinnati takes this one, 20-17.

Baver’s Buckeye Bag 11/5/14

Baver’s Buckeye Bag 11/5/14

A few thoughts before diving into Sparty week:

--Nice to see Devin Smith reappear this past weekend.  Smith has had some shining moments as a Buckeye, but has also had multiple game spans where he has contributed little.  An energized Devin Smith could pay huge dividends for the Bucks this Saturday night.

--Another nice thing to see this past weekend was JT Barrett looking smooth running the football.  But I would have much rather seen Barrett not run the ball at all.  At least Meyer did get him out of the game at halftime.  I probably would have had a heart attack had Barrett re-injured his sprained knee.

--Huge get this week, with the verbal commitment from QB/ATH Torrance Gibson from Ft. Lauderdale.  The Bucks will first give Gibson a look at QB, but in the end, I tend to think Gibson ends up at WR or another position.  His athletic skills are up there with just about any Buckeye recruit in recent memory.

--The Buckeyes thrash inferior football teams - period.  Just not sure that tells you much in terms of how this team is going to play against a legitimate opponent.  The battle in East Lansing Saturday night is certainly going to be interesting.

--What was up at tailback against the Illini?  Did Meyer really start Curtis Samuel ahead of Ezekiel Elliott because of Samuel’s strong week of practice?  Don't know; it just seemed a little odd.  The good news is Samuel and Zeke both look good right now, and the future looks bright at tailback for Ohio State.

--The Bucks are getting solid play out of the OLB spots right now, but the play at the Mike still should be better than it has been.  Fans continue to drool over Raekwon McMillilan, but he just isn’t there yet.  Meyer praised Curtis Grant’s play against Illinois, but overall, Grant is nowhere near as improved as the coaches told us he was in August.  This is bit concerning heading into the biggest game of the season.

Sparty Week – This is it

This is it; make no mistake where you are
This is it; your back's to the corner
This is it; don't be a fool anymore
This is it; the waiting is over

--Kenny Loggins

How big is the game, Saturday?  Doesn’t get much bigger.  If the Bucks win at Sparty, they probably jump five or more spots in the playoff committee poll and give Urban Meyer his first career win over a big time opponent as Buckeye head coach.  And the Buckeyes will likely control their own destiny in terms of the playoff picture.  But lose to Michigan State, and I think even the biggest Buckeye homers will be forced to call a spade a spade….in that Meyer will still not have a so-called signature win over a top notch opponent since he took over in 2012.  

Sparty compared to OSU’s first 8 opponents?  Little comparison.  MSU is 5th nationally in scoring offense, while their defense is very strong against the run (6th nationally) and against the pass (8th nationally in pass D efficiency). Sparty QB Connor Cook is 2nd in the Big Ten in passing efficiency, behind only JT Barrett.  WR Tony Lippett has been lighting it up, with just shy of 900 yards receiving and 10 total TD’s.  The Spartan defense is tops in the B10 in team sacks, while their offense has given up the fewest sacks in the league.  To say this is an upgrade in competition for the Bucks is the understatement of the year.  

It’s rare that you see this from one of OSU’s Big Ten opponents any more, but on paper, this Spartan team is simply looks better than Ohio State.  The last time a good coaching staff had an extra week to prepare for Ohio State, James Franklin and his Penn State defense derailed the Buckeye offense.  And this MSU defense is worlds better than PSU’s.   

The bright side?  You know Meyer is playing the “no respect” card all week with his players, while ESPN, and most of the other talking heads outside of Ohio, are giving Ohio State little shot in this one.  On the opposing side, I am guessing just about every player on the Spartan roster thinks MSU takes Ohio State to the wood shed.  Not the mindset I would really want right now from my players if I am Mark Dantonio; Ohio State simply has too much talent to underestimate.  And underestimating Urban Meyer usually isn't a bright move either.

Neither the O-line, nor Barrett have performed well against either of the two solid defenses (Va Tech & Penn State) that Ohio State has faced.  If they get similar performances out of the OL & Barrett, Michigan State will beat Ohio State by double digits.  On the other side of the ball, the Buckeye defense is much improved from early September.  The Buckeye D will have to bring it Saturday night, and may need a defensive score, or the Bucks will likely have a tough time winning this game.  Certainly hope I am wrong here, but….  The call: Michigan State 31 Ohio State 24.

Colin Agrees with John Kasich? Ricki C. Works the Polls? Our Bi-Annual Election Day Manifesto

Okay folks,  tomorrow is Election Day again (seriously) so it's time for my bi-annual Election Day manifesto. As a rule, we steer clear of politics here at Pencilstorm because: A) What do we know? and.....B) It cuts into valuable print space for debating who should be elected to the rock n roll hall of fame.

But in the interest of being a good citizen, I feel it is my duty as a Patriot to share a couple of thoughts for your consideration on this special day.

Remember, "Democracy" only works if everybody gets involved and shares their opinions and works towards a healthy compromise. I realize it's kind of a pain in the ass when somebody disagrees with you, but it's nothing personal. That's just how the founding fathers set up the system. Blame them, not me, or that asshole on Facebook who thinks taxes are too high or too low or whatever. The founding fathers wanted to give a voice to the people. That's why we got rid of that damn King in the first place. 

If you are one of those types that gets all huffy when you hear an opposing political viewpoint I would suggest your are a mentally weak American who has more in common with ISIS than your own government. So if you are overly sensitive, please spare me and stop reading now. (Making gagging noise putting fingers down my throat.)

Isn't this off to a nice start?

Or put another way for my rock n roll brothers and sisters: I may not agree with Ted Nugent's politics but I still crank up "Wango Tango" when it comes on the radio. So relax and enjoy the democratic process why don't you? A bunch of people fought and died for this privilege, so don't be a dick about it. 

Since there really isn't much of an election to speak of here in Ohio, I thought I would volunteer four topics on which I agree with Ohio Governor John Kasich. Please be mindful this is NOT some sort of endorsement so feel free to cast your vote however you please. It's nothing to me.

1) In July 2012 Kasich vetoed house bill 231 which would have allowed private interests to claim as much as FIVE MILLION gallons of water a day from Lake Erie without a permit. The bill passed the Ohio House with unanimous support from Republicans and literally nobody else on Earth including former Republican Guvs Taft and Voinovich.  His own party went crazy assuming he would just rubber stamp this gift to private business and were shocked by the veto. Want to read some really stupid quotes from some really stupid Ohio House members? Click here for a Dispatch article summing it all up.

2) Kasich bypasses his own Republican controlled legislation to expand Ohio's Medicaid program providing 300,000 Ohioans Health coverage they previously didn't have. Sure, some people don't like "Obamacare" but when somebody offers you 14 BILLION dollars, you take it. The fact that it is just morally the right thing to do makes it even sweeter. 

"Opposition to Medicaid expansion is either ideological or political and I don't think that holds water against real flesh and blood and real improvements in people's lives." - John Kasich

Click here to read Tea Party story: Gov. Kasich: Obamacare Repeal's 'Not Going to Happen even if we win the Senate'

3) Blasting the GOP for engaging in a war on the poor. "That if you are poor, somehow your are shiftless or lazy. The very people who complain should ask their grandparents if they worked at the W.P.A." and "What's more important when you get to Heaven? Did you keep government small or did you help the poor?" Click here for the full interview.

4) And just last week: Kasich: Fracking Tax is a 'complete rip off' for Ohioans. Kasich is pissed that private companies are making off with our natural resources and paying mere pennies for the privilege. Any Ohioan who opposes our Governor playing hardball trying to get a better return for the taxpayers of this state either works for the oil/gas lobby or is just a complete and total dumb ass. Click here for the full story from the Dispatch.

Certainly there are many topics John and myself don't see eye to eye, (women's rights for one) and I can't say I will be voting for him come this Tuesday but I respect that he is his own man and seems to have somewhat logical thinking behind many of his positions.

In full disclosure, I won't be voting for any candidate this election day. Not because Ed Fitzgerald can't take the time to renew a driver's license (I mean, come on, it is a pain in the ass) or I prefer some fringe lunatic candidate. No, I will not be voting because I will be out of town recording new songs with Watershed. Can't waste my time on something as trivial as politics when there are loud guitars to be recorded. 

Now get out and vote!  - Colin Gawel

Hey gang, Ricki C. here...

I just wanted to throw in my two cents, politics & elections-wise.  First off: I have been a poll-worker the last few elections over the last couple of years.  As a poll-worker, I would like to point out to Colin that he could have early-voted over at the Board of Elections on Morse Road.  But then I remembered that Colin grew up on the Mean Streets of Worthington, Ohio, and now resides in pastoral Upper Arlington - where they have good schools and where little birds dress many of the children in the morning before they attend those schools - so he may not have wanted to venture into the warlord-ruled, gang-infested no-man's-land that is Morse Road across from the old Northland Mall - i.e., my neighborhood. 

I actually became a poll-worker quite by accident, in that the Board of Elections called ME and asked me to join up.  I'm not sure it's common knowledge, but it is mandated by law that each polling station has to be manned by an equal number of Democrats and Republicans.  And it seems that the suburb adjacent to where I live in Columbus - which shall remain nameless for obvious reasons - could not muster enough Democrats to staff their polling place.  How many Dems were needed to fill out that roster, you might ask?  Four.  4.  In Roman numerals, IV.  (Cuatro, for our Hispanic brothers & sisters, although we really don't need Spanish in our polling-place, if you catch my drift.)  Right, the suburb in question could not find four Democrats within its borders to staff the polls.  Sad.  Scary.

I was going to detail some of my less-than-stellar moments as a poll worker here - one encounter with a tea-party voter stands out - but my lovely wife reminded me that I might want to KEEP working the polls, so let's just let those lie.  I do wanna say a couple of things: 1) If you don't go out and vote, do not complain to me about the quality of politicians you wind up with.  Right now the Koch brothers can finance a kajillion negative ads, but they still only get one vote apiece.  2) I find I have to disagree with Colin about Kasich.  The Governor can speechify all he wants about Medicaid and increasing the taxes on fracking, but as long as a gerrymandered Ohio is ruled by a Republican legislature, Kasich knows he won't have to deliver on any lip-service he pays to those causes.  He can appear moderate and, more importantly, Presidential without really doing anything substantive for the poor and middle class.  He can have his cake and eat it too.  Talk is cheap.  

Please understand me, I have nothing against John Kasich personally.  And I have no illusions that a completely inept Ed FitzGerald has any prayer of winning this election, but I still hope that everyone reading this goes out and votes the complete ballot and at least tries to participate in the process.  - Ricki C.   

Browns Bounce Back, now can they keep the momentum? The NCP tackles this and more.....

Big$ - Excuse me folks, I’m still suffering from that metallic, pre-pukey taste in my mouth that was left by being subjected to Weeden vs. McCoy on Monday. I will battle through it though. My thoughts on the Raiders game: bad team, double-digit win, move forward. Now on to the 5 foot 10, 180 lb. elephant in the room: Johnny F’n Manziel.  Rather than getting to bask in the joy of a 4-3 record, I spent the majority of last Sunday fielding tweets from the delusional Johnny Football camp. So I will break up my final response to them for the week into two parts: 1st, young people of Northeast Ohio and beyond, Johnny doesn’t represent you, relate to you or resemble you. He is the superstar athlete son of an oil tycoon. He would be much more inclined to clown you to his butler or weekly swimsuit model lady friend than to split a Four Loko while playing Madden with you. You know who gets you, young Cleveland? A YOUNG GUY FROM CLEVELAND (cough). Now on to grown people who are riding the Johnny train. Do you not think that there is pressure from Jimmy H to play his prized southern belle? Yet, he remains on the bench week after week. This tells you that Johnny is not producing at an NFL level in practice.  His lack of professionalism is also on display each week that he chooses a stocking cap over a headset on the sideline. This observation is coupled with the coach’s revelation that he has been fooling around while running the scout team. How anyone defends their belief in Johnny is beyond me, but it is definitely without warrant.

K-Dubs, the Soldier – As a long-suffering Browns fan, I am not sure I know the meaning of an “ugly win.”  Despite some of the chatter floating about Browns Nation this week, I am of the opinion that all wins are dime pieces.  I know fans are worried that what is viewed as the easy stretch of the schedule has seemed like a grind, with the loss to Jacksonville and a game against Oakland that was close for three and a half quarters.  Let’s not lose perspective, gang.  This is a team that was 4-12 last year, and now they are without their star wideout or their Pro-Bowl center.  The Browns are 4-3 approaching the halfway point of the season, and they remain in the playoff hunt.  And if nothing else, this team has not made me turn off a game out of frustration yet.  I am confident that this is the dawn of the New Browns.  I do say that recognizing, in football, there are always things to improve on, though.  The running game floundered against a bad defense for the second straight week, gaining just 39 yards on 25 attempts.  And the defense gave up 328 yards to rookie quarterback Derek Carr.  The important thing, though, is that team made plays when it needed to, especially where Donte Whitner forced a fumbled that Joe Haden picked up and returned for 34 yards to set up the touchdown that put the game out of reach.

Q) It’s time to declare who you would rather have LeBron James start in place of this week.  Who you got?

Big$ - Now of course The King has some serious responsibilities on his plate with the newborn and championship run, but I believe if Jimmy H. would spring for the Deion Sanders helicopter, he could be flown in each time he’s needed to return a punt.

K-Dubs, the Soldier – LeBron attacks the rim as tenaciously as anyone in the NBA, that is why we need him to play in place of outside backer Kiki Mingo this week.  Mingo was drafted as a pass-rusher, but has zero sacks this season as the Browns enter their eighth game.  We need LeBron to lead the blitzkrieg on Tampa Bay quarterback and Napoleon Dynamite look-a-like Mike Glennon.

Q) The Browns take on the Bucs this week.  Thoughts?

Big$ - Even though I’ve relied on pessimism to make it through the last 15 years, I truly think that the Browns are heading in the right direction. How many wins that will mean at the end of the season remains to be seen, but I do believe they are poised to make short work of the hapless Bucs. I see a 24-3 Browns victory.

K-Dubs, the Soldier – Remarkably, for the third-straight week, the Browns play a team at the bottom rung of the NFL.  The Buccaneers come into this week ranking last in the league in total offense and defense, and they are led by a young quarterback in Glennon, who is in his first full year as a starter.  Glennon has played respectably (58.8 completion percentage, 8 TDs, 4 Ints), and he keeps his composure in the pocket.  The key for the Browns on defense is to pressure Glennon and make him throw on the run, as he has a tendency to float some ducks when his feet aren’t set.  Although the Browns defensive line has underachieved this year thus far, they may be able to push Glennon out of his comfort zone.  The Buccaneers have surrendered 10 sacks in the last two games, and starting left tackle Anthony Collins is out with an injured foot.  The Browns front seven, led by Paul Krueger, should be able to get to Glennon, especially as D-lineman Billy Winn returns from injury.  The Buccaneers do have a size advantage on the outside, with a pair of 6ft.-5in. receivers in Vincent Jackson and Johnny Manziel’s partner in crime from his Texas A&M days in Mike Evans.  These giants are matching up against Haden, Buster Skrine, Justin Gilbert and NCP favorite K’Waun Williams.  But the good news is that Haden has historically played better against the big wideouts, like Bengal A.J. Green, than against shiftier dudes, like Antonio Brown of the Steelers.  Starting running back Doug Martin will also be out on Sunday because of injury.  I think with Winn rejoining the front-seven rotation and the banged-up Ahytba Rubin likely to play, the Browns can bottle up the Tampa running game and register a couple of sacks, while forcing Napoleon Dynamite into a pair of picks on their way to winning the battle of field position.

On the offensive side, the Browns will be taking on the Tampa Two, a defensive scheme that relies on getting pressure on the quarterback with four defensive linemen while dropping seven into coverage with two safeties playing deep over the top.  I expect them to put eight or nine defenders in the box, as the Jaguars and Raiders did, in an effort to stop the Browns’ previously dominant running attack.  To combat this, I think the Browns need to spread the defense out with three- and four-wideout sets to open up running lanes, or utilize more quick screens and jet sweeps to set up short yardage situations on third down.  Gaining yards on the ground will be hard against star defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, who this week became the highest-paid D-lineman in the history of the league, but he is a standout on a team that ranks last in the league in defense.  I expect the Browns to be in control of this game from the get, chalking up a 24-10 win in front of the Dawg Pound.  Even though if it is closer and the Browns win in a scrap, I stand by the belief that all Browns wins are hot, Kate-Upton-in-a-whip-cream-bikini hot. 

Baver Answers Colin's Questions, 10/30/14

You were the only person on the planet that saw Penn State hanging with Ohio State and you have not missed a Buckeye game (against the spread) this year. Do you have the same sports almanac that Biff had in Back to the Future II?  How did you nail that game and what is your record on the year?

Prior to the State Penn game, there were three things that stood out for me, in regards to why I thought the Nits were the play (against the spread): 1) The craziness of that stadium during a night white-out, making a 2-TD spread seem awfully high, 2) A well coached PSU team having an extra week to prepare for Ohio State, and 3) JT Barrett having never played in a hostile environment.  That was my second trip to see the Bucks in that venue, and once again, the crowd was insane.  That is so difficult for a frosh QB to handle.  JT did shows so real guts with his play in OT.  As for the overall picks on the year, combing the OSU picks with the weekly plays of the week, that makes me 17-10-1 against the spread.  

So, what games do you like this week?

I’ll continue to do the three picks of the week, which may or may not include the Buckeye game.  I have the Bucks covering against Illini, but would recommend staying away from that game, with OSU having Sparty on deck and JT Barrett ailing.  So, here are the three I like… call me a sucker, but I like Florida State laying the 3 ½ points against the ‘Ville.  That line was as high as 7, thus my “sucker” comment.  Too much of a talent difference and one would think the Noles have to eventually bust out this year.  And I will take two Big Ten dogs: Indiana getting 6 ½ at Michigan and Maryland getting 3 ½ at State Penn.  Indiana is a situational play, coming off a bye with Michigan, who is coming off an emotional loss.  As for State Penn and Maryland, I think the game could go either way, so the 3 ½ pts is attractive.  I think the OT loss to Ohio State will drag the Lions down a bit this week.

What is your take the CFB playoff committee rankings?  Tell me we won’t see three SEC teams in the playoff.  And can the Bucks get from #16 to the top 4 by year-end?

I just refuse to get wrapped up in all the hoopla this early.  It might sound like coach-speak, but there is a too much football yet to be played.  As far as the 3 SEC teams in the top 4….as of right now, I don’t really have much of a problem with it.  I think there will end up being 2 SEC teams in the playoffs when it is all said and done.  All the one-loss teams ahead of Ohio State?  Again, as of right now, I don’t have a problem with it. Other than putting 50 spots on poor defenses, Ohio State’s resumé is simply not good.  If the Buckeyes win in East Lansing, it’s time to revisit OSU’s chances of making the playoff.  Put me on the spot, and I will say this…. I think the Bucks “can” beat Sparty on the road, but tend to think they won’t.  (That opinion may change in the next week or so.)  If the Bucks do pull it off, they will still need to win the rest of their games, including the B10 Championship game….and I think winning-out puts the Bucks in the playoff.

Baver's Buckeye Bag 10/29/2014 Post-Happy Valley Thoughts

Follow Baver on Twitter @baverbuckeyebag 

Post-Happy Valley Thoughts

The number one complaint I have heard from Ohio State fans after the Penn State game is that the play-calling was way too conservative.  Well, with 13:24 to go in the game, Ohio State led 17-7 and had just gotten the ball.  The OSU defense had given up only 94 yards and Penn State’s offense had not scored.  The Nits were averaging 8.5 yards per drive at that point…..not 8.5 yards per play….8.5 yards “per drive.”  I turned to my buddy in Beaver Stadium and said, “Ohio State will button it up the rest of the way; they can’t lose this game without turning the ball over and giving Penn State momentum.”  So, on first down, with JT Barrett struggling, the OSU coaches elected to throw the ball over the middle, and the ball was picked off.  Eight plays later, Penn State was in the end zone cutting the lead to 17-14, and Penn State had major momentum. The play call on Barrett’s pick was anything but conservative and it damn near cost the Buckeyes the game.

I usually don’t single out individual plays and play the hindsight game, but I will in this case.  You absolutely cannot throw the ball over the middle on first down…at that point in the game…with the Buckeye defense dominating like it was…and with JT Barrett struggling like he was. In my mind, the overall play-calling wasn’t conservative enough.  There is no way Penn State should have battled back to tie that game at 17-17. The stadium, with the night game white-out, was chaos….as it always is in Beaver Stadium.  It wasn’t all that surprising to see the momentum completely shift after Barrett’s second INT.  I also shook my head when Ohio State ran out of the wildcat four times on a third quarter drive, while not running out of that formation at any other point in the evening (that I can recall).  What gives?  Not a conservative philosophy in my mind.

The Ohio State coaching staff is, at worst, one of the top five staffs in the country.  I guess that is why I was surprised at some of their calls.  I wasn’t surprised to see: (A) a close game, (B) JT Barrett struggle in that venue, and (C) PSU get the OSU offense out of sync after the Lions had the extra week to prepare for Ohio State.  I mentioned these concerns in last week’s blog and the concerns ended up being valid.

As for the two huge gaffes by the officials that helped Ohio State score 10 points that they maybe should not have scored….I don’t think the correct calls would have changed the outcome of the game.  As critical as I am about the coaches play-calling that led to Barrett’s second INT, Urban Meyer almost always gets it done in crunch time.  There is a reason why he is 7-0 in overtime games in his head coaching career. Nonetheless, I’d be pretty ticked off with the blown calls if I were a Penn State fan. 

Does the Penn State game change the outlook of the season?

So, the consensus opinion I am now hearing is: Ohio State is in big trouble in East Lansing on November 8th.  While this might be the case, the reality check in Happy Valley and the experience of playing in that environment helps this Buckeye team immensely.  After pounding Kent State, Cincy, Maryland, and Rutgers, the Ohio State players needed a dose of reality.  JT Barrett is still a freshman and he showed that for much of the night, Saturday.  The OSU coaches pulled this team together after the Va Tech debacle and will have this team ready to go against Sparty. And they will have to, or this team will indeed be in big trouble.

The college football playoff committee initial rankings?  About what I expected.  I still believe the Buckeyes are in the playoff if they win out. Sportsbook.com’s updated odds to win the national championship have Michigan State as the 4th favorite (7 ½ to 1 odds against winning the national championship) and Ohio State as the 8th favorite (9 to 1).  So, the oddsmakers seem to be thinking the same.  And I’ll take the opinions of the oddsmakers over those of the talking heads any day of the week.

Next up: Illinois.

The Buckeyes can name their score against Illinois, but will they?  I honestly see the OSU coaches taking a good amount of time this week to gear up for Michigan State, despite the coach-speak you will hear publicly.  They also have to protect JT Barrett’s sprained knee, and really shouldn’t call Barrett’s number on a designed run at any point against Illinois.  With Sparty on deck and Barrett ailing, my first thought was that OSU would have trouble covering the 28 point spread.  But the more I look at it, I see a very bad Illinois team despite their upset of Minnesota this past weekend.  And Urban will probably continue to keep his foot on the gas well into the 4th quarter, after seeing OSU come in at #16 in the initial playoff committee poll.   The call: Ohio State 45 Illinois 10.