TCU Nerds Better Prep for a Course in Football Economics 101. OSU Wins and Gets In by Colin Gawel

IF, Ohio State defeats Wisconsin in a semi-impressive fashion tonight at the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis, the Buckeyes will make the four-team college football playoff and Horned Frogs will be relegated to a - ahem - "less visible" bowl appearance. You heard me. If everybody wins out, the Buckeyes slide into the last spot and FSU jumps to #3.

"But, TCU is is currently number 3? And they killed Iowa State today? And their strength of schedule…"

Yeah, yeah, numbers, numbers, eye test, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah…..

Yeah, I've got a a number for you: 261,587- TCU total football attendance.

Texas Christian University coached by good old "what's his name," featuring "I've never heard of him" and "who is that guy?" only has an enrollment of 8,200 students who seem more inclined to study than to attend football games. In fact, the lack of fan support has been so noticeable that the media has been covering it. Check this out  or  this picture  or even this

In contrast, The Ohio State University football machine drew over 740,000 fans in the same season. Almost a HALF MILLION more butts in the seats. And those tickets require a much more serious financial commitment. Face value for the 2014 Michigan game was $150 for a single ducat. And that was the worst seat in the house. 

Meanwhile, back wherever TCU plays, you can purchase a SEASON TICKET for $250. That's right, every game for a grand total of just $250. And that is the "Championship Level" which I assume means you aren't jammed into the end zone bleachers.

Let's cut to the chase. The reason ESPN and the College Football powers got rid of that pesky computer ranking and put humans back in charge is because computers don't factor in the most important number of all: the numbers that starts with a dollar sign. The next time big college football turns down big money it will be the first time. In a long time. There is just no way on God's Green Earth that if OSU is a viable candidate it will be left out of the first ever final-four football playoff. The Bucks have too many fans, too famous of a coach and it's too important to keep all those Midwestern TV sets tuned into the games to keep advertisers happy that their money was well spent.

And with the possibility of a team winning and playing another travel game just one week later for all the marbles, I can only imagine the various Bowl committees will be pressing for schools with the biggest and most dedicated fan bases to fill all those seats and purchase all those plane tickets. TCU would be a huge financial drag on this, the very first season of the new four team playoff. 

There has been a lot of chatter about who comprises the playoff selection committee and how they will avoid a conflict of interest situation among the various conferences and teams. However, the most important committee members have not been mentioned up to this point. They have no conflict of interest. They are the men behind the curtain and they only show up at the very end of the very last selection meeting. It is the ESPN/ABC head of programming and the director of advertising sales. They will walk in, ask to look at the playoff  list, take out a red marker and make a slash through TCU and circle OSU with a smiley face next to it.  

Mark it down. If the Buckeyes win tonight and look decent doing it the Buckeyes will be playing on New Year's Day. - Colin Gawel

Colin Gawel created Pencilstorm at Colin's Coffee, plays in the band Watershed and wrote the story "Lebron James Will Return to Cleveland" back in June 2013. So doubt him at your own risk.

Baver's Picks and Colin's College Football Questions 12/5/14

1) Give us an update on your picks to date and what games and lines do you find interesting this week?

26-17-1….pretty good year.  Since I have been dialed in with Florida State (with them and against them), I will say take the Noles giving the 4 pts against Ga Tech.  The comical Committee rankings will piss the Noles off and I think they beat Ga Tech by double digits.  Next, take the dogs against the #1 and #2 Committee ranked teams.  Arizona is getting 14.5 tonight against Oregon and Mizzou is getting 14.5 (as well) against Bama tomorrow.  I think both Oregon and Bama likely win (outright), but just think both lines are too high.  Mizzou is playing much better football as of late and Arizona is a good football team – period, not to mention the Cats being 2-0 against the Ducks in their last two meetings.

2) Next man up. Is Cardale ready for his moment under the dome? What do you expect the OSU offense to do differently with JT unable to play?

Is Cardale ready?  Yes and no.  I don’t think he will be fazed by the so called “moment” other than maybe a few butterflies on his 1st set of downs.  But Jones has no experience other than mop up action….and it is going to be a fairly big downgrade from JT to Cardale.  What will OSU do differently?  I think they will first try to be conservative and see what happens.  You will still see plenty of called QB runs with Cardale being a solid runner.  Meyer and Herman will then likely find that they have to open it up because Wisconsin is going to put points on the board.

3) Big backs have been jamming the ball down our throats with uncomfortable regularity for the past two months. How did we get so thin on the D-line and can we still win this game if Gordon gashes us for 200 yards?

Combo of reasons for the thin D-line: You lose big time talent in Noah Spence, Jamal Marcus and Se’Von Pittman because of off-the-field issues.  Tommy Schutt, Michael Hill and Donovan Munger are not living up to expectations.  And Joel Hale, Billy Price and Chase Farris were all moved from the D-line to the O-line.  I think the Bucks can give up 150 yds to Gordon and still potentially win, but if you are talking 200-plus, it’ll be very difficult to beat Wisky without the Buckeye D or special teams scoring at least once. 

4) Assuming we win and look good, you mean to tell me that TCU, with an enrollment of 8,200 is going to make the final playoff and OSU stays home? In the golden age of money football I have a hard time seeing that happen. Can you imagine the ratings with OSU in the final four?

If the top 5 teams (including OSU) win, it’s going to be close between TCU and Ohio State.  With Florida State currently 4th in the rankings, any credibility this Committee may have had is gone.  So, who knows?  I still think they could move both Florida State and Ohio State ahead of TCU should they both win.  But we will see.  Yes…the mighty dollar is still in play, which is why I would not rule out OSU leapfrogging TCU if the Bucks beat Wisky.  And you will see at least one top five team fall this weekend.

5) Assuming the top five all win this weekend, who would you put in your final four?

This is how I think they “should” be ranked if the top five teams each win: 1) Fla St 2) Bama 3) Oregon 4) Ohio State.  But, I can see both sides of an OSU vs TCU argument. 

Baver’s Buckeye Bag 12/3/14

The Game thoughts, the Barrett injury and Misc.

--Hats off to Michigan for remaining composed after the poor start Saturday, and for hanging tough with Ohio State.  It is quite amazing though, how emotion affects college football so much.  I mean, if you didn’t know any better, you’d have thought Ohio State played a pretty good Michigan team this past Saturday.  But that simply isn’t the case.  The Wolverines 5-7 final record tells it all; this was a bad football team.

--The finish to the 2014 season is mirroring the finish to the 2013 season for this Buckeye defense.  Michigan had no Jeremy Langford, no David Cobb, and no Tevin Coleman….hell, they didn’t even have an offense to speak of.  I gave some deserved credit to UM above, but once again, the Buckeye defense helped make a horrendous Michigan offense look pretty good.  So, how is this Buckeye D going to stop Wisconsin’s running game?  That is the million dollar question.

--Once you saw the replay of JT Barrett’s leg getting bent backwards, you knew it was bad.  Such a shame.  How ‘bout JT returning from the locker room, and coming back to the stands to watch the end of the game before heading to the hospital?  I said it a few weeks ago…is there anything not to love about this kid?

--What can we expect from Cardale Jones?  Jones has a cannon….and if he can settle into a rhythm, I think he will throw the ball better than most think.  Cardale also runs very well for a 250-pound man.  But Cardale, experience wise, is about where JT was going into the Va Tech game….and we all know how that turned out.  The rest of this Buckeye team is going to have to raise their collective “game” if Ohio State is to have any shot at beating Wisconsin.

--My thoughts are with the Karageorge family and those close to him.  Being distraught over Buckeye football injuries obviously doesn’t hold a candle to what this family is going through right now.

--Since late October, I’ve been saying winning out likely puts the Bucks in the playoff.  My guess is that this is still the case.  It’s not a given, but it never was.  There is a better than 50% chance of at least one team losing this weekend between Oregon, TCU, FSU and Bama.  If the Bucks win and none of the others lose, you could still see TCU drop two slots in the poll, although the chances of the Horn Frogs dropping two slots aren’t great.

The Big Ten Championship Game

From a matchup standpoint, this is about as bad as it gets for Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have not been able to stop the run as of late and they now face what is probably the best rushing attack in the nation.  The Buckeyes will have to sell out to stop the run, otherwise Melvin Gordon is going to add another 200+ yards to the 2,260 yards he already has accumulated this year.  That means Buckeye corners Doran Grant and Eli Apple will have to handle the Badger WR’s one-on-one for much of the evening.

On the other side of the ball, the Bucks also face a tall challenge – the Wisconsin defense is ranked 8th in the country against the run, 2nd against the pass, and 2nd in total defense.  And the Bucks will of course have to face the Badger defense without their top 3 Heisman candidate, who is being replaced by a QB that has not started a game at the college level.  The Buckeye O-line is going to have to play their best game of the year and the Buckeye playmakers, Marshall, Ezekiel, D. Smith and company are going to have to dial it up.

The thought here is that Urban Meyer will have this Buckeye team ready to play and they will play with a stronger sense of urgency, realizing they have to after losing Barrett.  Meyer is 3-0 at OSU in games where the Buckeyes are underdogs….he knows how to motivate his team in these type of games.  Normally you don’t take chances with a new QB, but this staff obviously has to, with this being the Big Ten title game.

In the end, I expect the Bucks to put up a valiant effort, but to come up short.  It is just too much of a downgrade from Barrett to a QB with no starting experience, and I don’t see this Buckeye defense doing enough to stop Melvin Gordon.  Hope I am wrong.   The Call: Wisconsin 33 Ohio State 27

--Brent Baver

The Browns Hang On In Atlanta To Stay In Playoff Race; On To Buffalo With The NCP

How Could The Browns Look So Bad And Good In Last Week’s Win?

K-Dubs, the Soldier:  The Browns held on for a big 26-24 win at Atlanta last week, with a last second field goal that snatched victory from the jaws of a defeat.  Brian Hoyer showed much mettle again in leading the game-winning drive.  Unfortunately, the quarterback was a primary reason that such heroics were needed.  His three interceptions were awful, ill-advised throws that kept the Falcons in a game that would not have been close otherwise.  The Browns got their running game back on track last week, gaining 162 yards on 29 carries (5.6 yd/avg).  But I think offensive coordinator Kyle Shannahan got too cute with the game plan, calling in pass plays at puzzling times, and Hoyer just did not execute.  Most strikingly, the Browns drove 74 yards on 7 plays in the fourth quarter setting up a first-and-goal at Atlanta’s 6 yard line.  By this point of the game, the Browns offensive line had worn down the Falcons front seven, and had ripped off runs of 20 and 18 yards on this drive.  On first down, with the goal line right under their noses, the Browns run a bootleg right and Hoyer, under pressure, noodle-armed a ball to the back of the end zone that was picked off, giving the Falcons another chance to win.  Earlier in the half, they rammed the ball down to Atlanta’s 5 yard line, before throwing an incomplete pass on second down out of the shotgun, taking a 9-yard sack on third down, and ultimately settling for a field goal.  Discounting Hoyer’s bad performance and the questionable play-calling, the Browns played a pretty good all-around game.  Again, the offensive line played well, and Josh Gordon looked good in his return, with 120 yards on 8 catches.  The defense bottled up the Falcons running game, holding them to just 63 yards, and made Pro-Bowl quarterback Matt Ryan look fairly pedestrian.  There is a lot of bad to pull out of this game, but I think the never-say-die attitude the team showed again is going to help in what appears like it’s going to be a difficult push for the playoffs.

Big$: Well the Browns are 7-4, but there is definitely good news and bad news surrounding last week's last second victory.  I'll stay in my comfort zone and open with the bad news. As much as I want to stick up for the hometown boy, Brian Hoyer's play against the Falcons was wretched.  He had been walking a tightrope all year as it relates to INTs and that rope snapped like many a thanksgiving belt in Atlanta.  To miss as bad as he was missing showed a startling lack of focus which could be deadly in a playoff hunt (ask Derek Anderson).  This week will tell us a lot about Brian Hoyer and where he’s headed. Coupled with the concerns at QB, is the fact that it seems as though the rest of the AFC North is hitting its stride.  Rumors of the Bengals, Ravens, and Steelers demise have been greatly exaggerated.  The Browns are in a dogfight and they have infinitely less experience in this area than their other playoff tested counterparts.  I have my doubts that they can keep their heads up above water.

Now the good news, the NFL is a war of attrition.  There are no style points, and a win is a win.  This team has proven that it can win ugly when the moment calls for it and that character should serve them well during the late season push.  As far as this week’s match up goes, I also believe the Browns will gain some sort of competitive advantage from Pettine and O Neil’s history with the Bills and hope to see it capitalized on.

Where would you start LeBron this week?

Big $:  With all the defensive injuries it would be dumb not to utilize LeBron on that side of the ball.  So on Sunday I’m sending Barkevious Mingo to the buffet for weight enhancement and letting the King run wild at outside linebacker.

K-Dubs, the Soldier:  I would like to see LeBron patrol the sidelines as an assistant coach.  Last week in Atlanta, Coach Pettine again showed poor clock/timeout management.  He also pulled the ultimate head-scratcher on the last play of the first half by choosing to try a 60-yard field goal with Billy Cundiff, who is statistically the NFL’s worst long-range kicker ever.  Almost any other offensive play would have a better chance of netting some points, especially when you have deep threat Josh Gordon back on the field. 

What do you expect this week on the road against the 6-5 Buffalo Bills?

Big $:  In retrospect, the Browns could of won the Falcons game by 3 touchdowns had it not been for Shanahan and Hoyer’s dual lobotomies.  I am going to hope and assume things were learned and corrections were made.  However, I'm also concerned that Sammy Watkins may throw a shaker of salt on our current 2014 draft woes.  With that said, I’m going to go out on a mile-long limb and not only predict a 21-17 Browns victory, but also that Justin Gilbert will atone for our Watkins envy with a big play this week.

K-Dubs, the Soldier:  The Bills are the type of team that has given the Browns trouble all year, as they have a great defensive line.  Buffalo averages more than 4 sacks per game, led by end Mario Williams and tackle Marcell Dareus, who have 12 and 10 sacks, respectively.  Teams that can penetrate the Browns front line, especially at the interior, have stifled the run and forced the ever-inconsistent Hoyer into poor throws.  The Bills have thrived in such situations this year, ranking 4th in the league in scoring defense and 6th with a plus-8 turnover margin.  The Browns offensive line, though, showed some dominance last week against the Falcons.  The outcome of this matchup will determine the game.  On the other side of the ball, the Browns are missing LB Karlos Dansby and safety Tashaun Gipson are injury, but I still think they can match up well against a Bills offense that ranks in the bottom third of the league in just about all relevant categories.  I think the Browns can keep the Bills offense at bay but, ultimately, I don’t think they can outscore them this week.  I am expecting a low-scoring game, with that Bills front seven leading the charge and taking a 16-13 win.  

Follow @northcoastposse on Twitter for Browns coverage and commentary.

Thanksgiving Couldn't Have Come At A Better Time by Wal Ozello

Let's be honest. The world is really messed up right now.

Ferguson. Immigration. Healthcare. All polarizing events that are splitting the country in half. You're either for the decisions that have been made by those leading the government or against them. The emotion behind everyone's conversation seems to rise to a boil instantly.

ISIS. Ebola. Crisis that are affecting the whole world. Sure, they are over-sensationalized by the media but they are very real and a threat to all of our livelihoods.

These big issues shadow other stories that would have been big news otherwise: Bill Cosby's rape allegations, the 12 year old that was killed by policeman for brandishing a BB gun, the fraternities suspended for gang rape at the University of Virginia.

Oh... and by the way... the Nigerian school girls that were kidnapped back in April? Still missing.

Personally, this hasn't been a great year for the world around me. I've got friends who are sick with cancer, friends who have died, and several friends that have recently lost their jobs.

2014 is one depressing year.

So with racism, rape, death, and terrorism flooding the headlines, what in the world can we be thankful for?

A lot.

As you sit down to enjoy your Thanksgiving meal, here are some "Thanks-Starters":

1) You have food in front of you. (obvious one)

2) You're surrounded by family and friends. (Even if you're uncle's a douchbag)

3) We live in a country where there is due process and a trial system. (We also have the ability to protest without repercussions in the event we believe justice isn't served.)

4) We have easy access to the world's best healthcare. (If we can't afford it, the government's going to end up footing the bill from the ER.)

5) The media is really good at punishing those that have sinned in the public eye. (Cosby may never face trial for his accused rape charges, but his legacy has flipped from the jello pudding man to rapist.)

6) By comparison to the rest of the world, we're really rich.

This is just the beginning of things we can be grateful for. I believe there's still good in this world. It's there to be found. Sometimes you have to pull up every stone that's been thrown and check under it.

From everyone here at Pencilstorm, we wish you, your families, and your friends, a wonderful Thanksgiving.

Wal Ozello is  a science fiction techno-thriller novelist and the author of Assignment 1989: The Time Travel Wars  and Revolution 1990. He's a resident of Upper Arlington, Ohio and a frequent customer at Colin's Coffee.

Learn more about Wal Ozello and other Pencilstorm contributors by clicking here

Baver’s Buckeye Bag 11/26/14

Baver’s Buckeye Bag 11/26/14

The Indiana debacle, Michigan week, other misc thoughts…

--I guess we have to start with the rush defense.  It’s an embarrassment, and the thought of facing Melvin Gordon in a week and a half is frightening.  (More on that in a second.)  Bad angles, bad reads…just plain bad execution.  Not sure what the answer is, but the entire linebacking crew, along with Tyvis Powell, are just not getting it done.  Thankfully, they are finally facing a team this week that doesn’t have an elite tailback.

-- As a Buckeye fan, do you still want to see Wisconsin in the B1G title game?  I would think you do, but from a matchup perspective?  Certainly I’d rather take my chances with David Cobb and Minnesota again than have to face Gordon and Wisconsin.  A win over the Badgers would look more impressive to the Committee but a potential matchup with the Badgers is looking much more troublesome than it did two weeks ago.

--The Indiana game surprised me more than any game all season.  It shouldn’t have mattered that the Bucks had trouble getting up for this one.  They should have hammered the Hooisers, and the game should have never been in doubt.  Trailing an Indiana team in the 3rd quarter that is 0-6 in Big Ten play?  Really?  As unpredictable that college football is, I never saw that coming.  That game by itself shouldn’t affect Ohio State’s final position in the Committee ranking, but it’s still hard to swallow.

-- It’s Michigan week, and that’s still special….but does it seem like Michigan week?  This is a bad Michigan football team.  Can they get up and win one for a coach that is likely on his way out?  Certainly possible.  The “Springs slip” in 1996, when the Bucks lost as 17-point favorites, blowing their undefeated season, is still fresh in my mind…..18 years later.  Man, that was painful.  And if the Bucks play like they did against Indiana, this game will be closer than it should be.  More on the matchup below.

--Glad to see The Game again being a noon kick.  The day that they move it to an 8 pm kick, I will want to cry.  The Game was made to be played on a Saturday afternoon – period.  Absolutely have to keep this game as the last game on the schedule with an afternoon kickoff time.

--Nice to see Jalin Marshall respond like he did after the tough one in Minneapolis and the Twitter onslaught afterwards.  Marshall is electric and will be needed against Michigan.  Urban Meyer talked about Marshall having some “wear and tear” and him possibly being limited some against Michigan.  This is concerning with no other healthy H-back available.

--Noah Spence permanently ineligible now?  Not often you hear the word “permanently” in sports.  Best of luck to Noah Spence, and if he still has drug problems, let’s hope he overcomes them.

The Game – The Matchup

The Michigan offense is atrocious….no easier way to say it.  111th nationally in scoring offense, 114th in total offense, #113 is passing offense, and #61 in rushing offense.  Brady Hoke’s recruiting hasn’t been great, but it’s been good enough that their offense shouldn’t be this bad.  And this after adding former Alabama OC Doug Nussmeier in the offseason to help cure their offensive woes.

The Wolverines are not clicking on the ground or through the air.  Devin Gardner is wrapping up a disappointing career; he’s now thrown 14 picks, with only 8 TD’s this season.  They lost their #1 TB Derrick Green to a broken clavicle in early October and have lately been going with the sophomore combo of Drake Johnson and De’Veon Smith.  Green has been ruled out against Ohio State. 

Michigan has been much better on the other side of the ball, ranking 9th in the country in total defense and 21st in scoring defense.  If they can get some confidence early, they may be able to get the Buckeye offense in a rut, much like Penn State did.  As mentioned above, if Jalin Marshall isn’t close to full go, this could be a major issue for Ohio State against this Michigan defense, with Dontre Wilson out until the bowl game(s). 

Last chance for Brady Hoke to beat Urban Meyer?  One would think so, at least while Hoke is UM’s head coach.  Last year’s Michigan team was sky high for Ohio State, but I don’t expect their emotion to be the same Saturday.  I think this Michigan team is more than demoralized.  They do have more talent than their 5-6 record might tell you, so letting UM hang around might be ill advised.  But if the Buckeyes can get Michigan down 2+ scores early, the rout should be on.   The Call: Ohio State 38 Michigan 13

--Brent Baver