Baver's Buckeye Bag 1/11/15

Bucks and Ducks - For All the Marbles

It's 24/7 hype right now and every Buckeye fan knows what this game means, so....let's skip that talk and get right to the keys for a Bucks win and then talk about the matchup.  

First, some fears....  Probably shouldn't have them any more...I mean, with what this team has accomplished and overcome?  But, it's human nature for me, so here 'tis....it's basically one multi-faceted fear, I guess.  Was the Bama win the ultimate accomplishment for this Buckeye team?  And with that, did Ohio State get "THE" chip off their shoulder?  Do these kids now think the hard part is behind them and that Oregon simply isn't Alabama?  Those fears won't rest for me until I see Ohio State on top of Oregon on the final scoreboard Monday night.

The Keys for Ohio State: Key #1a - Keep the Duck offense on the sidelines; establishing the run and running clock are musts for Ohio State.  Key #1b - "Adequate" play from backups on defense; Fickell and Ash are going to have to rotate in fresh bodies often or the OSU D will run out of gas at some point in the second half.  Key #1c - Win turnover battle; while this always goes without saying, it's much more so against Oregon, as they are the best in the business of turning turnovers into points.

The Matchup:

Buck Offense vs. Duck Defense

Here is a comforting stat - the OSU offense played defenses that currently rank 2nd, 4th, 7th, 8th and 12th in total defense (nationally) and averaged 44.6 points per game against them.  As for the Duck defense, they are better than the #'s may suggest; their up-tempo offense skews their defensive stats.  

Ohio State will need to run the ball more often than they did against Bama to win the time of possession - a stat the Bucks really need to win by a wide margin.  And Ezekiel Elliott should again find daylight often behind an OSU line that has really come together.  But the Oregon is D-line is solid against the run and the Oregon defense doesn't give up yardage in big chunks.

When OSU throws the ball, they won't have to deal with Oregon All-American corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, who is out after tearing an ACL in Rose Bowl practice.  But Ekpre-Olomu's replacement, Chis Seisay, more than held his own against the Noles.  Safety Erick Dargan is a game changer on the Duck defense, and leads the team with 90 tackles and 7 interceptions.  The Bucks are undefeated when Devin Smith's scores TD's but Smith may need to find pay dirt more than once in this one.

Duck Offense vs. Buck Defense

Marcus Mariota: 4,121 yards passing, 68.6% completion rate, 40 passing TD's, 3 INT's.  Ridiculous numbers even before you add in Mariota's 731 yards on the ground and 15 rushing TDs.  The Oregon offense is a machine, and it is going to be very hard to hold them in check.  The OSU defense has to find some way to get Oregon out of rhythm and disrupt their timing; if they don't, the Ducks are taking home the National Championship trophy.

Mariota spread the wealth between his big four WR's this season: Marshall, Carrington, Allen, and Stanford, who combined for 183 catches, 2,803 yards and 22 TD's.  But the Ducks will be without Carrington (suspended) and will likely be without Allen (injury) as well.  Those are big losses for the Ducks.  Regardless, the Ducks will still do their damage through the air.  The Buckeye pass defenders, Doran Grant, Eli Apple, et al, better be ready.  And Joey Bosa, Michael Bennett & company on the OSU D-line will need to bring it.

Oregon should have success on the ground, with true frosh Royce Freeman (1,343 yards, 18 TD's) and Thomas Tyner, who is healthy for the first time since mid October.  Tyner had 124 yards and two TD's against the Noles in the semi-final.  Like Bama's tandem at tailback, Freeman and Tyner is a very nice one as well.

The Call:

I am done doubting Urban Meyer...it's making me look silly.  I don't know how you can go against Urban in a championship game.  Taking the 6 points is a given in my mind.  I think Meyer and his staff will figure out how to get the Duck offense in a funk, at least at times, and the OSU ball control offense will keep the Duck offense off the field "just enough".  The call: Ohio State 38 Oregon 35.  Urban wins his third National Championship and first as Ohio State head coach.

Should Your Kid Miss School to Watch a Football Game? The Ethicist, by Colin Gawel.

Dear Mr. Ethicist: My eleven year old son is a huge fan of the Ohio State football team. On Monday night they are playing Oregon for the National Championship and he really wants to watch the game. Problem is  it doesn't start until 8:30 and will not end until after midnight, which is obviously past his bedtime. Should I let him stay up and watch and, if I do, is it OK to let him sleep a little longer on Tuesday and take him to school an hour or so late?

I am assuming that since you took the time to write this question, your son must be a very big fan of Ohio State and you are struggling between being a responsible parent and making your son happy. Some people will say, "It's just a stupid football game," but kids miss school for all sorts of teachers' days and religious holidays. Really, that line of argument places one person's values ahead of another's and holds little water. What's a crazier reason to miss school: a football game or a religious holiday? On one level  they are both absurd, and yet on another level both are valid in the eye of the beholder.  

Since you didn't mention any poor grades I assume your son is a relatively decent student, so it seems unlikely that he is using the game as an excuse to miss class. He just really wants to watch this game, which seems reasonable. It's like letting him read a book to the final  chapter and then saying, "Go to bed and I will tell you how it ends tomorrow." 

Who would be happy with that arrangement?. Yes, he can stay up and watch the game.

As for sleeping in, there is no clear-cut solution.

On the one hand, dragging yourself into work after a late night and half-assin' it all day is a cornerstone of the American economy. I suppose the sooner he learns this lesson the better. You play, you pay. Besides, tax dollars are going to pay for these schools, so by allowing your son to skip class for football you are cheating fellow taxpayers out of their hard-earned money.

On the other hand, if you have the ability and means to get out of work after a late night, good for you. Having the foresight to ask for a day off before another employee; making sure your shift is covered; or simply bullshitting your boss for a couple extra hours of sleep are also part of the American tradition. Capitalism in its truest form. Let the market decide who gets the morning off.

In this case, you - as the parent - are the boss. If your son has built up enough good will and  knows how to bullshit you properly, he is taking advantage of his assets and skill-set to leverage you into getting the desired result he is seeking. Sounds like a well thought-out business transaction to me. On your end, If you agree to let him stay up and sleep in, I would demand that sometime in the next week you have him write a paragraph or two summing up the football game and how he felt about the result.

He gets what he wants, you to get to see your son happy watching what could very well be a once in a lifetime experience, and for the responsible parent side of you, he has to put in a little work just because you said so.

Colin Gawel is the founder and a contributor to Pencilstorm. He does most of his writing at Colin's Coffee and has spent his life playing in the band Watershed. You can read all about it in the best selling book  Hitless Wonder by Joe Oestreich.  Twitter @colingawel

Chuck Klosterman is the real ethicist BTW

 

SEC Bias? What Do the Facts Say? by Scott Plez (Senior Dixieland Correspondent)

SEC Bias? What Do the Facts Say?

Writing for Pencil Storm, the brainchild of Midwestern musical legend and Ohio State superfan Colin Gawel, I feel pretty sure this piece will be read largely by Big Ten loyalists, many of whom have been loudly complaining about alleged “SEC bias” in the media and in the polls for years. Therefore, I shall begin with a full disclosure of my football allegiance: I am an Auburn fan and damn proud of it. Doesn’t matter to me if the Tigers go 12 and 0 or 0 and 12. I have been known to complain about our defense on occasion, but you’ll never get me to say a bad word in print about the Auburn football program. Never.
    But—
    That doesn’t make me a shill for the SEC. In fact, I really couldn’t care less about the conference. When the bowls come around every year (contests I still think of as more or less exhibitions, even with the advent of the playoff system), people will often assume I root for all of the SEC teams because I am an “SEC fan.” Far from it. I don’t care whether Mississippi State or Texas A&M wins or loses as long as they’re not playing Auburn. Same goes for Kentucky and LSU and Georgia and most of the league. 
    I may watch Ole Miss in the Weedeater Bowl or South Carolina in the GalleryFurniture.com Bowl, but that’s only because I love football so much. Bowl season is just the last chance to see college ball for eight long months. I am not rooting for another SEC triumph when I watch those games. In fact, on the occasions when I do care about the outcome of an SEC bowl game, it’s almost always because I want a team from the league to lose. As an Auburn fan, I shouldn’t have to say it, but I will state for the record that I always want Alabama to go down in a flaming heap. (Big thanks to the Buckeyes, by the way!) Even if a Bama victory would somehow help Auburn, I don’t think I could bring myself to pull for the Tide. Same goes for Tennessee. And to a lesser degree Florida. To me, the SEC has one team I love, three teams I hate, and ten other teams I’m vaguely aware of.
    So—
    If you read what I’m about to write and say to yourself, “Oh, Plez is just another SEC homer,” you are plain, dead wrong. I may not be able to convince you of that, but it’s true. In the fall of the year, my life may be consumed by SEC football, but it makes no difference to me where the SEC ranks against the other conferences. I only really care where Auburn ranks within the league. And most of the year, I don’t even care about that exactly. I’m only concerned with where we rank in the western division of the SEC. Beyond that, I don’t give a hoot about the conference we play in. If Auburn moved to the ACC or the Big 12 (fat chance, but if), I would suddenly start buying preview magazines for our new conference and I’d cancel my subscription to the SEC Network in a hot second. Believe it.
    Get what I’m saying? I have no loyalty to the SEC whatsoever.
    However—
    I do have some loyalty to the truth, and I have to say that all of this talk of SEC bias is just false. Demonstrably false. A lot of people like to believe in grand conspiracies of various types, but like most conspiracy theories, there really just isn’t much evidence out there to support this one. Think about it logically for a moment. If the media conglomerates and the polls were really interested in scheming to make sure a certain conference always came out on top, do you really think they would choose the SEC? SEC schools tend to be in small southern towns. Hell, a few of them (Auburn and Alabama included) don’t even have commercial airports. You want to fly to Auburn? Your best choice is probably Atlanta—over 100 miles away and in a different state. 
    If the media were smart, you’d think they would plan their conspiracy so that a conference with truly big market teams would get the advantage. How about the Pac 12? They play in places like Seattle and Salt Lake City. Oh yeah, and they have not one but two teams in Los freaking Angeles, with a metro population of roughly eighteen million. Fewer than 60,000 people live in Auburn. Fewer than 100,000 in Tuscaloosa. And Ole Miss (ranked as high as #4 in the College Football Playoff rankings and #3 in the AP rankings this year) is located in Oxford, MS, population about 15,000. The two largest cities in the SEC are Nashville, TN, and Lexington, KY, home of the two perennial bottom dwellers in the league, Vanderbilt and Kentucky. 
    And it’s not just the Pac 12 that has bigger markets than the SEC. Big Ten universities and cities are bigger (on average) than their SEC counterparts, too. Columbus, OH, is large, y’all, especially when compared to anywhere in SEC land. The Big Twelve Conference has two cities (Austin and Ft. Worth) approaching a million in population. The ACC is based in places like Miami, Pittsburgh, the Raleigh-Durham area, and Atlanta, the city with the biggest metropolitan area in the football-obsessed south. Seems like Georgia Tech would be getting more of that media love (especially with so much of the media based in Atlanta) if the people running this alleged conspiracy knew anything about marketing.
    I can’t imagine why the media would deliberately design this conspiracy so as to avoid some of the biggest television markets in the country. But if that argument doesn’t persuade you, how about some good old facts to solidify my case? Can do. 
Football is a sport, not a popularity contest, right? We’re told that teams need to “prove it on the field” and that polls don’t mean anything, and I couldn’t agree more. The winning team—more often than not—is the better team. Therefore—stay with me here because we’re getting to the core of it—the conference that has done the most winning over the years is the best conference, no? I think that’s the one inescapable truth that puts the lie to all of this conspiracy talk. The SEC isn’t the best because the conference has been voted to be the best or because they get more media coverage or because the playoff system was designed to favor them. The SEC is the best because they flat out win more games than any other league. 
    And that is not my interpretation. Nor is it a result of media bias.
    It is a simple fact. Or rather, a collection of facts that all lead to the same conclusion. (Please note: The records below include all of this year’s regular season and bowl games, but not the National Championship Game because it hasn’t been played yet as of this writing.)
    I think it’s fair to say that the title of “best conference in college football” is going to wind up being claimed by one of the “Power Five” conferences: ACC, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Pac 12, and SEC. So let’s look at the long-term data on inter-conference matchups among these leagues. The SEC has a 61.3% all-time winning percentage (524-308-23) against the other four major conferences. The Big Ten is next with a 50.3% winning percentage (598-561-30) in inter-league play. None of the other major conferences has a winning percentage in such games. The ACC comes in at just 36.1% (261-448-13). The Pac 12 has an all-time record of 452-464-25 (48.0%), and the Big 12 is just behind at 427-481-27 (45.7%). Seems like the SEC has done a good bit more to “prove it on the field” than any of the other conferences, no? And the media didn’t play a single down in any of those games!
    “But,” you may ask, “what about bowl games?” OK, true, the bowls are traditionally thought of as the place where conferences prove themselves. And yes, the SEC had some notable losses in this year’s bowl season. With twelve teams in the “post-season” (a term I think only loosely applies in college football), the SEC went 7-5, with five of those losses by teams in the much-heralded SEC West, including my beloved Auburn Tigers, who lost in overtime to a resurgent Wisconsin team. (I pause now to re-stiffen my upper lip and wipe away a tear.)
    And yes, those SEC West losses were embarrassing ones in some cases, such as TCU’s demolition of Ole Miss and an LSU heartbreak in a squeaker against a Notre Dame team that had been struggling late in the season. And more importantly, those losses came in some of the biggest bowl games of the year, including most notably Bama’s loss to Ohio State in the semi-final game at this year’s Sugar Bowl. (And I want to reiterate my heartfelt thanks for that one!) The overall results were very disappointing for the league office, I’m sure, but the SEC still came away with a winning record (58.3%). 
    Let’s put this season’s SEC losses into a larger perspective, then. A winning percentage of nearly 60% puts the league in second place among the major conferences. The plain truth is that the SEC didn’t do that badly this year in the bowls. The losses just came at some bad times. 
    Over the last 25 seasons, the SEC has had by far the best winning percentage among Power Five conferences in bowl games. Winning 113 games and losing 73 in that span, the SEC has compiled a 60.8% winning percentage. Compare that to the other leagues:

Pac 12: 72-69 (51.1%)
Big 12: 79-79 (50.0%)
ACC: 77-83-1 (47.8%)
Big 10: 74-94-1 (43.8%)

By winning 58.3% of its bowl games this year, the SEC is (gasp) right where they always have been, statistically speaking. 
    So here are two conclusions for you to consider, and these are based on facts, not on wild speculation and conjecture, but facts:
    One: The SEC’s dominance is real, not a myth, not a result of polls and media coverage that follow the orders of some shadowy football overlords executing a grand conspiracy. Not a result, that is, of “SEC bias,” but a simple fact proven by the league’s performance on the field over time.
    Two: Despite all of this talk of the SEC falling apart in the bowl season, there’s no reason to declare the SEC king dead just yet. In fact, the SEC seems to be doing about as well as ever.
    I know some people will balk at the above conclusions, but if you do, just know this: The facts do not support your case.
    Don’t get me wrong, though. I know why people hate the SEC. They hate the SEC for the same reason I hate the New York Yankees. As an Atlanta Braves fan and a supporter generally of the National League, I’m just sick and tired and getting beaten by the freakin’ Yankees and seeing them smugly hoisting trophies over their heads. 
But c’mon, the Yankees haven’t won 27 championships because the media was biased in their favor. They have won because they have a powerful and well-built organization with a hell of a lot of money behind it. They have won because, year after year, they manage to get players that are a little bit better than those on the other teams. And like the SEC, the Yankees play in a very competitive environment, so they don’t always win it all, but over time, the win more games and more pennants than anybody else. Even in a bad year for them in 2014, they finished second in their division and had a winning record. 
    That’s how the SEC operates, too. They just recruit better players and put more time, money, and effort into the sport than the other leagues do. The gap between the SEC and the other conferences isn’t always enormous, and in some seasons, there is no gap to be found, but over time, you can count on the SEC to be the Yankees of college football conferences. 
    I don’t say that with pride. I just say it with the facts behind me.
    Now, please, if you want to end the SEC’s irritating dominance of college football, get out on that field and do what Ohio State just did: Knock the king off the top of the mountain. As long as you’re not beating Auburn, I’m ok with that. And if you beat Alabama or Tennessee, I’ll probably offer to buy you a beer to show my heartfelt gratitude. But until the other conferences start winning like the SEC does, quit blubbering about this mythical SEC bias that has no basis in fact. 
    It’s sad to hear that kind of loser talk coming from Big 10 country, and I know the good, hard-working people of the Midwest are better than that.

--Scott Plez

Baver's Buckeye Bag 1/6/15

Baver's Buckeye Bag 1/6/15

Beating Bama

I mentioned in last week's Buckeye Bag that I thought Ohio State would be "ready" and that the Bama game was certainly a winnable game for Ohio State.  But I thought that Ohio State would come up on the short end of things.  Being wrong never felt so good.  It's starting to look downright stupid to pick against Urban Meyer in big games.

The thing that I thought would be Ohio State's undoing was Bama's rush defense.  That obviously wasn't the case, as Ezekiel Elliott had a field day, finishing off his already big game with the 85-yard TD run in the 4th quarter.  That is a run we will be talking about for decades.  But let's not give all the credit to Zeke, as the O-line created the hole and Evan Spencer took out the last defender (Shaun Dion Hamilton) that could have made the play.  I've said it before, and will say it again - Ed Warinner is the best O-line coach in the country and I am now convinced Evan Spencer is the best blocking WR ever to don a Buckeye uniform.

The other thing that surprised me a bit was the effectiveness that Cardale Jones had running with the football.  If you take away the negative plays (in which three sacks contributed heavily toward), Cardale had 89 positive rushing yards against the vaunted Bama defense.  Seems that Bama didn't foresee Cardale running as much as he did, with OSU basically not having a backup QB if Jones were to have gone down.  Urban is a cowboy at times, but who can question the results?

Other misc thoughts:

  • Word on the street is that Luke Fickell had to talk Urban into offering the scholarship to Darron Lee.  If that's true, God bless Luke Fickell.
  • I think I could watch the replay of Evan Spencer's TD pass to Michael Thomas a million times and still shake my head - simply amazing....the pass and the catch.
  • Hats off to Curtis Grant.  The kid has been eaten alive by Buckeye fans the past few years.  Great kid that has stuck it out through some tough times on and off the field, and played the best game of his career against the Tide.  Great story.
  • The cockiness of Ezekiel Elliott (with the "feed me" gesture) and Devin Smith (with his taunting and "shhh" gestures) still drives me crazy, but man can these two kids flat out play.
  • Note to the Boren family: keep having kids and keep sending them Ohio State's way.
  • Bucks underdogs, yet again, in the Title Game.  But why fear when you've seen what Urban and this Buckeye team has done?  Bring on the Ducks and let's finish it off with a National Championship.

Finally, I saw the question asked on a message board....where do you rank this win in your lifetime of watching Ohio State football?  I came up with 12 wins that stick out in my mind, and did my best to rank them.

#12  31-26 win over Arkansas (2010 season, 2011 Sugar Bowl) - Vacated wins be damned; Bucks got the SEC monkey off their back

#11  31-16 win over Michigan (1998) - Bucks got revenge on UM after three straight heartbreaking defeats in '95, '96 & '97.

#10  45-26 win over Notre Dame (1995) - 1st matchup of historic programs since the '30's; Terry Glenn's 3rd qtr 82 yd catch & run was one for the ages.

#9    22-13 win over Iowa (1985) - Bucks beat #1 ranked team in the country, picking off Heisman front-runner Chuck Long 4 times.

#8    59-0 win over Wisconsin (2014 B1G Champ Game) - After losing 2nd Heisman candidate QB, Bucks, a 4-pt dog, pasted the Badgers.

#7    26-17 win over Oregon (2009 season, 2010 Rose Bowl) - The "big & slow" Bucks were given no chance by the talking heads.

#6   42-35 win over Alabama (2014 season, 2015 Sugar Bowl/Playoff semi) - Bucks beat #1 ranked team and SEC's best with 3rd team QB.

#5   18-15 win over Michigan (1979) - 4th quarter blocked punt/TD gave OSU win and undefeated regular season in Earle's 1st year.

#4   42-39 win over Michigan (2006) - Undefeated vs undefeated in best rivalry in all of sports; 6 different Buckeyes scored TD's.

#3   14-9 win over Michigan (2002) - Will Allen's pick on game's last play sent Bucks to Tempe, AZ to play for Nat'l Title.

#2   20-17 win over Arizona (1996 season, 1997 Rose Bowl) - Joe Germaine's led dramatic last minute TD drive to pull out win.

#1   31-24 win over Miami (2002 season, 2003 Fiesta Bowl/Nat'l Title) - The most dramatic of dramatic OSU victories ever.

A look at the National Championship matchup in a few days....

--Brent Baver

A Belated Year End Note From Pencilstorm "Founder" Colin Gawel

I would like to personally thank the 24,000 different people who visited Pencilstorm last year, but that would take too long. Truth be told, I have exactly ZERO idea if 24,000 is a number of which to be proud or to be embarrassed by. To a life-long musician and coffee shop owner like myself, any number north of say, 45, seems like plenty, so imagining an arena full of people reading Pencilstorm is beyond flattering. 

However, I do have time to thank the individual contributors who have enriched my life during 2014 and hopefully yours.  

- Ricki C is my older brother in rock & roll and without him Pencilstorm might as well be fifty monkeys clanking out a Nickelback review for the Drudge report. In addition to writing great stories, Ricki edits and corrects all kinds of shoddy grammar, giving Pencilstorm just the faintest hint of professionalism. In gratitude to his work, I promise to google "How to Write a Headline" sometime in 2015. Thanks Ricki.

- It took me two years to finally finish Doris "I Wrote Team of Rivals" Goodwin's Teddy Roosevelt bio but it wasn't all for naught. Though I had heard the term "muckrakers" once or twice during 10th grade history class, I had no idea how important McClure's magazine was to shaping American life as we know it. That aside, editor S.S. McClure identified talented writers and gave them a platform to showcase their efforts and I knew I had to do a better job of reaching out in a similar way. There are just so many talented writers floating around in cyberspace. We may not have added an Ida Tarbell or Lincoln Steffens, but in my opinion we took a huge step up in 2014.

 Thanks to these new Pencilstorm contributors:

Brent Baver for covering OSU Football

Scott Carr for covering rock n roll history

The North Coast Posse for covering Browns football

Ryan Haye and Kevin J Elliot for covering Reds baseball

Jim Brazytis for covering Tribe baseball

Greg Bartrum for covering World Cup Soccer

Nick Jezierny for covering Watershed.

I'm sure I'm forgetting people but it's late and my brain just isn't what it used to be. As for our regular writers, surely you must be used to being taken for granted by now or you would have already quit. As always, I sincerely appreciate all your efforts in keeping this labor of love afloat. Love will keep us together. Unless you have already quit. Then love isn't keeping us together, but it's still an open relationship. No hard feelings. Sneak out for a fling whenever the mood strikes. I am usually working in the toolshed out back most nights after 9 pm…. and, if you know somebody who is over-achieving with their Facebook posts, have them send us something through our submissions page. We are always looking for new contributors.

Anyway, in closing, let me add: Pencilstorm rules, Grantland drools. Please tell a friend about us if you can. Not verbally of course, but that social media Facetwitter thing all the kids are into nowadays. Thanks again and Happy 2015.  - Colin G.