Bold Predictions for Every MLB Team - by Brian Phillips

Our editor asked me to come up with five bold predictions for the upcoming baseball season. I'll do you better boss. Here's one for every team:

Arizona Diamondbacks

It's been the talk of the off season among fantasy nerds like myself. The D-Backs are installing a humidor to make the balls heavier to help out their pitchers. When they struggle offensively that contraption will be gone by June.

Atlanta Braves

A.J. Minter will be closing by mid season. Fastball at 96. Wipeout slider that garners a 23% swinging strike rate. If he can prove he's tamed the walk beast he's in.

Baltimore Orioles

On their way to a last place finish the O's look to replenish a weak farm system by trading Manny Machado. The Yankees offer a package that includes top prospect Miguel Andujar. Holding their noses about trading with a division rival, Baltimore pulls the trigger. New York gives Machado a 6 year deal in the off season.

Boston Red Sox

Mookie Betts goes 30/110 with 25 steals and hits .320 to win AL MVP. A deep dive into his 2016 reveals he may have been the unluckiest regular in the league last season. A .268 batting average on balls in play will do that. Everything else looked normal.

Chicago Cubs

In his first full season on the northside Jose Quintana has a career year. 18 wins in 32 starts. 200 innings. 220 strike outs. Seriously considered for NL Cy Young.

Chicago White Sox

Struggling to maintain a .280 on base percentage, shortstop and lead off hitter Tim Anderson is moved to 9th in the order and eventually optioned to triple A to learn plate discipline.

Cincinnati Reds

Jesse Winker wins a regular starting job. Seizes lead off spot. Hits .310 and scores 85 runs. His on base percentage is sabermetric porn at .380

Cleveland Indians

With Jason Kipnis going on the DL.... again... The Tribe call up #1 prospect Francisco Mejia. Though he's a catcher by trade Cleveland has been working him out at third. Jose Ramirez moves to second full time. Meija talks over at the hot corner and rakes. With a cannon arm he grows into the position and remains a fixture at 3rd for the next several years.

Colorado Rockies

The trade deadline arrives and Colorado has been unable to deal Carlos Gonzalez. Cargo is mired in his second straight terrible season. David Dahl has long ago taken his place in right field. Gonzalez is DFA'd. The Yankees acquire him after he clears waivers for a single A pitcher. Gonzalez pinch hits in game five of the divisional round and hits a series winning home run because Yankees.

Detroit Tigers

Nick Castellanos is a bright spot for an otherwise bleak rebuilding season. He goes 32/110 and hits .290, out producing Miguel Cabrera.

Houston Astros

Free from Pittsburgh Gerritt Cole is given his full arsenal of weapons. Allowed to work his breaking stuff Cole wins 17 games and posts a sub 3.20 era. He starts game one of the World Series.

Kansas City Royals

Jake Junis (who?) leads the club in starts, wins, strikeouts and ERA. Represents KC at the All Star Game.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Crushed by the pressure of trying to be a two-way player in the best league in the world Shohei Ohtani has his last at bat before the end of May.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Beset by injuries the Dodgers fail to win the division title.

Miami Marlins

At the trade deadline the Marlins trade Cameron Maybin to the Yankees for cash considerations. Next season Maybin announces he's signed a three year deal with the Nippon Ham Fighters.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have the highest team batting average and the highest team ERA in the National League.

Minnesota Twins

Fernando Rodney loses the closer job by May 1st. Gets it back June 1st. Loses again August 15th.

New York Mets

At one point during the season Yoenis Céspedes, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Michael Conforto, and Seth Lugo are all on the disabled list at the same time. Adrian Gonzalez gets 550 at bats.

New York Yankees

Aaron Judge strikes out 220 times and sees his batting average crater to .230. Giancarlo Stanton spends at least four weeks on the disabled list.

Oakland Athletics

Having hit 24 home runs in just 59 games in 2017 Matt Olson slams 52 and leads the American League in 2018.

Philadelphia Phillies

Weary of his underachievement, the Phils bench third baseman Mikel Franco by the end of May and insert top prospect Scott Kingery at the hot corner. Franco is traded to the Dodgers at the deadline because Justin Turner cannot stay healthy.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cancer survivor Jameson Taillon makes 30 starts and strikes out 200 in 185 innings of work.

St. Louis Cardinals

No longer able to hold him back, late bloomer Jose Martinez is a regular at first base just weeks into the season. Matt Carpenter logs extended time at 2nd and 3rd to make it happen. Martinez hits .300 with 25 home runs and is a National League All Star.

San Diego Padres

Jose Pirela will hit .285 with 20 homers, 80 RBI, 85 runs and 15 steals and represent the Pads at the All Star Game.

San Francisco Giants

Beginning the season without Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija the Giants find themselves in a deep hole by June. An already aging roster will not be able to staunch the bleeding. The Giants finish last and manager Bruce Bochy is fired.

Seattle Mariners

All the way back from Tommy John surgery Cardinals 2013 #1 pick Marco Gonzalez will log 180 innings with an ERA of 3.20, 15 wins and a strikeout per inning.

Texas Rangers

Joey Gallo and Rougned Odor combine for 80 home runs, and between them a .210 average.

Toronto Blue Jays

With only Curtis Granderson holding him back, one time Astros prospect Teoscar Hernández forces his way into the starting line up. Hernandez strikes out a lot, but with a 50% flyball rate and loads of hard contact he hits 30 home runs.

Washington Nationals

By May 1st 20 year old top prospect Victor Robles is a fixture in center field and goes neck and neck with the Braves' Ronald Acuna for National League Rookie Of The Year.

 

My Picks:

American League Division Winners: Yankees, Indians, Astros.

Wild Cards: Red Sox, Mariners.

National League Division Winners:   Nationals, Cubs, Rockies

Wild Cards:  Dodgers, Brewers

World Series:  Nationals/Astros

World Champions:   Houston Astros

Brian Phillips hosts the CD1025 Morning Show in Columbus,OH. Tune in or stream it at CD1025.com .



























 

Reds Opening Day at The Library Bar: A Tradition Unlike Any Other - by Colin Gawel

*** Reds Opening Day Rained Out! Rescheduled Friday March 30th. All bets are off but hope folks can make it. 

Join your favorite Pencilstorm writers for MLB Opening Day at The Library Bar on Thursday March 29th. First pitch for the Reds vs Nationals is 4 pm and I wouldn't be  late if you plan on catching Homer Bailey on the hill as he might be headed for the showers by 4:30.

The Tribe open the season later that evening on the West coast against Brian Phillips and the Seattle Mariners. 

Reds Win Total 73.5?  It's funny. The Reds have been awful the past few seasons but they have been a surprisingly fun team to watch. When future hall of famer Joey Votto is locked in, every AB is must watch TV. And he is locked in most of the time. Billy Hamilton ABs are must miss TV but the guy is a human highlight reel on the base paths and especially in center field. (Watch This)

I want to say the team will improve in 2018 but the pitching once again looks historically bad. How bad? The Pencilstorm fantasy baseball league drafted 360 players. Exactly three Reds pitchers were chosen. Luis Castillo, Raisel Iglesias, and Homer Bailey. Actually, I chose Homer as my last pick and he isn't even starting for my fantasy team despite being the Reds opening day pitcher. That's rough.

If Reds manager Brian Price had any sense and/or balls, he would read Chapter 9 in Brian Kenny's amazing baseball book Ahead of the Curve and just eliminate the starting pitcher for 2018. Every pitcher goes through the line-up one time and they all pitch roughly equal innings. This would mathematically guarantee to improve the team's win total. But who wants use numbers when you can rely on tradition? Price's inability to accept reality and think outside the box will finally cost him his job this year.

That reminds me of a story I once wrote: What if Dusty Baker was Bryan Price?

And.......        The Reds Will Remember the Dusty Baker Years Fondly.

Anyway,  I'm an optimist so I like the Reds to combine dumb luck with magic to get 74 wins. 

Cleveland Indians 94.5 wins. The only thing not to like about this Tribe squad is that everything looks too good. Nobody in the AL Central can touch them so it's all about knocking off the Astros or Yankees in the playoffs. Payroll reality sets in next year so it's do or die time on the North shore. I'll take the over. 98 wins.

Colin Gawel wrote this at Colin's Coffee in between serving customers. Excuse the typos please. Colin and The Bowlers are playing Little Rock Bar Sunday April 29th 2-5pm. 

 

Tom Petty Fans Were Right to Hate The Replacements - Jeff Hassler

In honor of tonight's Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers sold-out Value City Arena show, Pencilstorm re-presents this Jeff Hassler offering from our archives.......  

The reunited and better-sounding Replacements are coming to Columbus this week and needless to say Colin, Greg and Ricki C. are just gushing about their greatness everyday at the Pencilstorm office. Brian Phillips is the worst of the bunch and since we co-manage a fantasy baseball  team together there is NO escaping his CD1025 elitism. I like The Replacements OK, but one of the best bands ever? please... I thought "Don't Tell a Soul" had some good stuff on it. And the video for "When It Began" was pretty cool with the claymation and Tommy and Paul playing an accordion and banjo. Nice to see them maturing musically and not just falling back into a safe "Hootenany." But seriously? Those early records sound I like I recorded them on a Sony walkman. Totally amateur. Just saying!

I accept the fact the 'Mats have long roots around the 614. Hell, even Ricki himself got offerred a chance to roadie for them. People love to idolize how they showed up, got messed up, couldn't sober up and then the show was disaster. But since it's the holy Replacements, all is forgiven. Colin always makes fun of me for liking Bon Jovi but the bottom line is that bands like The Replacements and - I hate to say it - Watershed just never really had any mainstream success. Is it sour grapes or jealousy or the same thing? (No offense, CG, still love ya.)

Anyway, one of the more popular "old wives" tales is how the Replacements got their big break by opening for Tom Petty on his wildly successful Full Moon Fever tour but were too cool to even bother trying to win over Petty's fans, drawing boo's and catcalls until the 'Mats eventually quit the tour with their tails between their legs. To hang around Pencilstorm, you would think The Replacements were like the next ELO, and Petty's fans were just too stupid to appreciate them. That is FALSE.

Let me tell you, I was at the Petty / Mats show at Pine Knob in Michigan and the Mats deserved the cool reception they received. First of all, they came on ten minutes late and when they finally started playing the sound was really rough. To quote Slim, "not half bad, but ain't exactly good." And apparently they were too cool to hire a keyboard player to help out, so the songs from Don't Tell a Soul sounded really different from the record. I mean, a record company spends all that money printing and promoting your record and then when they finally get you in front a big crowd the songs sound different? That's just bad business. No wonder The Replacements always had trouble moving product.

Even worse, they made NO attempt to win over the Petty fans who were paying attention, if not enthusiastic. Hell, it was so loud you had to notice. There were no sing-along sections and I'm pretty sure they didn't even say "Hello Cleveland" or anything funny like that. I thought these guys were supposed to be funny. Sure, there weren't many people in their seats yet and I only counted around ten standing and clapping, but they could have tried a LITTLE harder. There were THOUSANDS hitting beach balls on the lawn seats. Way bigger than playing Staches. Just saying!

Anyway, the set mercifully ended and my future and now ex-wife Kim and I headed backstage for a meet & greet with Tom Petty himself. SCORE! A fraternity buddy of mine had an internship with Petty's record company and the fact that he was also Kim's ex-boyfriend didn't hurt either. Anyway, we are hanging around the green room with about thirty other people and in walks Tom Petty himself! Wearing a top hat and smelling a little…you know.. green…AND acting TOTALLY professional: "Hey folks, thanks for coming." Just as Kim and I were set to have him sign our cassette of Full Moon Fever, Replacements bassist Tommy Stinson lurches into the room, grabs our cassette out of Kim's hands and scrawls "TOM PETTY IS MY DAD" right across the cover. RUINED.

He pulls the beer out of my hand and chugs the WHOLE THING. Let me tell you, he didn't need any more alcohol. Listen, I'm not a teetotaler by a long shot. Just the previous spring break me and my frat brothers from Sigma Ki went to Panama City, Florida and let's just say Club La Vela was NEVER the same. Kim wasn't pleased. (Long story!) And big deal if Petty smokes some weed before a show. No cops backstage that I saw anyway.

But Stinson, he was SO drunk he kind of fell into Kim, put his head on her shoulder and started talking about how lonely he had been since his brother had been kicked out of the band. Pathetic, really. Kim, back before our divorce and the lawyers and hooking up with Russ, used to be very nice. She used to always take care of people. She used to be so kind-hearted. Writing this story now, I wonder why she changed. Anyway, she helped him up and asked, "Tell me Tommy, why did they kick your brother out of Tom Petty?" 

"Because he wouldn't play… Free Falling……" He started to tear up and asked Kim, "Could you help me back to find the tour bus, I need to take my allergy medicine or my eyes will get all red. I should take a shower too. Please?"

I gently grabbed Kim by the shoulder and said, "Kim, I think he has had too much to drink and he isn't even in Tom Petty, that's Tommy Stinson from the Replacements."

She pushed my arm away and said, "DON'T BE AN ASSHOLE, JEFF"

I protested, "I'm not trying to start a fight. I just don't think its a great idea you going back to the tour bus. Besides Tom Petty is about to start."

"Why are you having a cow? Tony always said you were like this but I never believed him. Now, I am starting to think I was wrong to leave him. Especially now that he is a starting a successful career in the music business and you are STILL working at Subway."

"But Kim, I was just....."

"But.. But.. But.. Jeff, I am going to help Tommy back to his bus for some pills and a shower and then I will meet you back at our seats. Be a gentleman and grab me a large Bud light OK? I'll see you in thirty minutes."

"Ok, but I still don't....."

It was too late. Tommy and Kim walked out of the back of the green room. I felt really bad because I was kind of a dick. Here is Kim, just being the kind soul and me, getting all jealous. I knew I had to chill out or I was going to mess this thing up. I started humming "If You Love Somebody, Set them Free" by Sting as I headed off to the concession stand. I got back to our seats by the third song, "Listen to Her Heart." I just knew this would be the song Kim would return to. She would "Listen to Her Heart" and re-appear. 

She didn't. BUT the next song was "Free Fallin'" and I was sure she wouldn't miss that one. It was her ALL TIME FAVORITE TOM PETTY song. She loved the line about Elvis and horses. She used to always sing that in the car when we would drive to G.D. Ritzy's between class. She wasn't a bad singer, really.

But she didn't come back. I was starting to get really worried by the time I finished off hers and mine 38 oz draft beers when suddenly I didn't feel very good. I tried to walk around by the tour buses out back to get some air. I started yelling, "KIM! KIM! It's Jeff! Where are you? Kim!"

Around that time a couple of big guys wearing shirts that said "Security" grabbed me and pushed me over the top of a chain-link fence and I landed rough on the gravel of the main parking lot. I don't know how long I laid there but when I finally collected my wits and rubbed the gravel out of my hair, the parking lot was empty except for maybe 25 cars where there had once been thousands.

Kim was standing by my blue Toyota Celica disheveled and noticeably upset. 

"JEFF! It's almost three fucking thirty in the morning! Where have you been? The concert ended at eleven and I have been waiting here since 2:50. What the fuck have YOU been doing?"

"I'm sorry, it's just that I got us both beers and when you didn't come back I must have drank them both and I don't really remember what happened after "Even the Losers"  Wait, you just got back to the car at 2:50? Where did you get those red boots?"

"At this point, after the way you have treated me, I don't feel like talking but if you must know, Tommy Stinson from Tom Petty gave them to me."

"But why did you get back so late? I don't under...."

Kim cut me off, "Don"t be an asshole Jeff" Just drive me home, I have aerobics class tomorrow at 9 am at Larkins. If we leave right now we can make it. You drive since I need to sleep."

"Okay."

To read previous Jeff Hassler stories please click here 

Anyway,  this is Jeff again, TOTALLY not pro… Watch this show opening for TOM PETTY with a striptease. Kim thought Tommy looked cute but I just didn't see the point. 



Tommy Stinson - The George Harrison of The Replacements by Colin G.

Tommy Stinson's Cowboys in the Campfire will be performing at Used Kids Records Monday March 26th, 7 pm. He will also be taping a Big Room segment with Brian Phillips on CD1025 airtime TBA. This story was originally published in the past. 

It's Replacements week here at Pencilstorm. Along with my Watershed pals - Hitless Wonder author Joe Oestreich and the living literary legend, "Biggie" - I have been invited to St. Paul, Minnesota, to witness The Replacements' homecoming show on Saturday September 13th at Midway Stadium in St. Paul, MN. In honor of this we decided to knock out some 'Mats-related material for your enjoyment. - Colin G.  Click here for previous Mats' story.

Here are three facts about Tommy Stinson:

1) He joined one of the most notoriously dysfunctional bands in rock history just as he was entering puberty. Even as his older brother was kicked out of the band and eventually died of alcoholism-related complications, and as the Replacements fell apart, he emerged from the mess as a completely functional adult as if he was raised in a New England boarding school.

2) He is the only person never to have been fired from Guns n Roses by Axl Rose.

3) Tommy Stinson always looks like a rock star.

On the merits of those three facts alone, I think one could argue that Tommy Stinson deserves admission into the Rock n Roll Hall of Fame as a solo artist. But you know what hardly anybody mentions when they talk about Tommy Stinson? He is an amazing musician who makes GREAT solo records. 

In fact, I think if you put Tommy's post-Mats' solo output head-to-head against Paul Westerberg's, Tommy has a higher percentage of great songs. No knock on Paul, he is on the Mt. Rushmore of great rock songwriters, but Tommy - simply put - doesn't release sub-par albums. Unlike Paul at times, it obvious Tommy he puts everything he has into each of his records.

His three full-length records in the past twenty years are: Bash n Pop - Friday Night is Killing Me, Tommy Stinson - Village Gorilla Head and Tommy Stinson - One Man Mutiny. Perfect is good as well, but we will stick to the full-lengths.(* Author's note: Since this story was published, Tommy released the record Anything Could Happen with his band Bash and Pop. I think it's his best record yet. )

These records all age well and there isn't a weak track in the bunch. More so, a number of tracks are as good as the best of any Replacements records. If Paul is the Lennon/McCartney of the 'Mats, Tommy Stinson is the George Harrison.

The funny thing is, nobody listens to Tommy Stinson records. Especially Replacements fans, it seems. Hell, even I took over a year to press one single button on my phone so I could check out One Man Mutiny. I don't know why it took so long. It just didn't seem important. Then, within the first thirty seconds of the the opening track that familiar light- bulb went off, "Oh yeah, I forgot, I fucking love Tommy Stinson. Why did I wait so long to play this?"

I have since played One Man Mutiny about 100 times and loved every spin. Great songs. Great vocals. Great sound. You know what would be really cool? If somehow the "new" Replacements could let Tommy slide over to center stage every night a-la Keith and do a couple of solo songs. I think that after all Tommy Stinson has lived through, survived and meant to rock and roll, he deserves a little glory all to himself. - Colin Gawel

Colin Gawel plays in the band Watershed and was once kissed on the lips by Tommy Stinson onstage for covering a Kinks songs at Stache's in Columbus,OH. You can read about that and whole bunch more in the best-selling book "Hitless Wonder- A Life in Minor League Rock n Roll" by Joe Oestreich   

 

Secret Bonus Track. A Tommy Stinson Primer.

Click here for a massive Tommy Stinson playlist some maniac put together on youtube. Songs, videos, and interviews. Below are some of my picks.

Tommy Stinson - One Man Mutiny

Listen to This! "All This Way For Nothing"     

Watch this! "It's a Drag"  

Listen to This!  "Meant To Be"     

Listen to this! "Destroy Me" 

Tommy Stinson - Village Gorilla Head

Listen to This! "Without a View" (opening track on record)  

Watch this! "Someday" (fan video with a bunch of cool pics)  

Listen to this! "Not a Moment Too Soon" 

Bash n Pop - Friday Night is Killing Me 

Listen to this! "Friday Night is Killing Me"

Listen to this! "Tiny Pieces"

Watch this! 'Bash n Pop' on Letterman                                                                    

Book Review: Runnin' With The Devil: Behind the Making of Van Halen (Monk & Layden) - by John Egertson

Strolling through a Barnes & Noble store one afternoon I noticed a book about Van Halen called “Runnin’ with the Devil.”  I mentioned to my wife that I thought I might like to read it.  I never gave it another thought until Christmas morning when I received a copy as a gift from her.  Before I get to the book, let me give you my general thoughts about Van Halen.  When the first Van Halen record came out in 1978, I was 15 years old and I was just starting to get very deeply into the Sex Pistols, Clash, Damned, etc.  I was a punk and new wave fanatic.  I adored The Cars first record from the minute it came out, and I despised bands like Styx, Journey, REO Speedwagon, etc.  But to me, Van Halen was different.  That first record, with “Ain’t Talkin’ ‘Bout Love,” “Runnin’ with the Devil,” “Jamie’s Cryin’” and the cover of “You Really Got Me” was - and still is - excellent in my opinion.  I continued to listen to Van Halen records for the next one or two releases, but by the time they were doing “Pretty Woman” and “Dancing in the Streets” I thought they sucked.  I will admit that when I was in college and the 1984 record came out (think “Panama” and “Jump”), I liked that one pretty well.  It was after that record that the band split and while they soldiered on with Sammy Hagar, I have never liked them since that time.

So let’s get to the book.  The very first thing I learned as I began reading was that the author, Noel Monk, was the band’s manager from 1978 to 1984.  Perfect for me since that is the time period that I had interest in: essentially all of the David Lee Roth era of Van Halen.  It was instantly apparent that this was not going to be a band biography.  Instead, it would be more of a “tell all” book and a memoir of Noel Monk.  I also immediately learned that Noel Monk was the road manager for the one and only U.S. tour by the Sex Pistols, which occurred just before he became manager of Van Halen.  I had already read his very good book entitled “12 Days on the Road with the Sex Pistols.”  I did not realize that he was the author of that book until I started reading, but it gave the guy a bit of instant credibility from my point of view.  

I liked the fact that the book told the story of the band in chronological order, from one record and tour to the next.  My favorite tidbits from the first record and tour were these:

1) The manager was on tour with the band before he ever heard the record.  That lost him some credibility with me.

2) That first tour was opening for Journey.  The author claims Van Halen blew them off the stage on a nightly basis.  I believe it.

3)David Lee Roth was an egomaniacal asshole but he had the business sense and was the most driven to succeed.  I certainly believe that as well.

As the book went on through the next records and tours, it primarily emphasized the hedonistic tendencies of the band, the dysfunction, etc.  The author makes no secret that that things will end badly for both he and the band.  As the book progresses, he seems to take more and more shots at the band while taking more and more credit for the job he did managing them.  Despite this fact, I found myself believing most of the stories he related, although I suspect some level of exaggeration was involved, i.e:

1) Monk takes credit for finding a way to get the band out of a bad contract and doubling their royalties.  

2) Monk also takes credit for having the band do its own merchandising, creating a huge source of income for he and the band.  He spends a bit too much time bragging about his efforts to stamp out bootlegging of merchandise at the band’s concerts.

The entire storyline involving the marriage of Eddie Van Halen and Valerie Bertinelli is entertaining.

The book never waivers in painting all members of Van Halen as completely screwed up with the exception of bass player Michael Anthony.  Anthony is described as a quiet, faithful, all-around excellent dude, if not an awesome musician.  The dude married his high school sweetheart and is still married to her to this day.  I doubt that’s easy when you’re a rock star in the 1980’s.

It is interesting to learn that Van Halen split all profits equally among the four members even though only Eddie and David wrote songs.  I find that to be an excellent thing.  Unfortunately, when the album 1984 broke big, the boys kicked poor Mr. Anthony out of the royalties, which was entirely unfair when you read the details.  

“Runnin’ with the Devil” was an easy read.  I got through it in less than a week, which for me is fast.  I felt like some of it was sour grapes, but the author was careful to include positive stories about the band as well.  It was certainly an entertaining book, but not a great piece of literature by any means.  If you liked David Lee Roth era Van Halen, I would recommend it.  I do enjoy learning things about the business side of the music industry, and this will definitely give you some insights into that.  I could relate a lot more, but I don’t want to ruin the book for anyone who might decide to read it.