Colin: Clemson hasn’t lost in two years and they have never lost to Ohio State, what needs to happen for the Buckeyes to win this game?
Baver: (1) Ohio St HAS TO tackle better. Through the first 10 games, OSU averaged 2 missed tackles per game, a quite impressive stat. The last 3 gms that # rose to 6.7 missed tackles per game. And Clemson tailback Travis Etienne leads the nation in yards after contact.
(2) Justin Fields HAS TO do a better job of getting rid of the football. First 13 gms, it didn’t really matter; no OSU opponent could turn Justin’s one main weakness into an upset. Fields cannot take multiple sacks Saturday night when there is an option to throw the ball out of bounds.
(3) The Ohio St O-line HAS TO do an adequate job identifying (pre-snap) where Clemson may bring pressure from. While the run blocking has been excellent, the OSU OL has struggled against the more complex blitz packages they have faced. Brent Venables is the best DC in college football, so this won’t be easy. Let’s hope the Buckeye OL has done their homework.
Colin: Which position matchups are favorable and what has you concerned?
Baver: While Clemson nose tackle Tyler Davis is a budding star, I like the matchup of OSU’s interior O-Line vs Clemson’s DT’s. The trio of Jonah Jackson, Josh Myers and Wyatt Davis are unsung warriors, and another 140+ yds rushing from JK should be doable. Also, Virginia took advantage of Clemson FS Tanner Muse, who really struggled in pass coverage against the UVA receivers. I look for Ryan Day to test Muse through the air as well.
On the flip side, although OSU has tall corners, no one has big, athletic WRs like Clemson. Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross and Diondre Overton all go 6’4”. The Buckeye DBs not only have to stick with their guys...they will have to be in position to play the ball. With Trevor Lawrence’s quick release, and the size/skill of his WRs, Clemson will find success through the air against OSU. And I won’t be surprised if Trevor nets 40+ yards with his legs.
Colin: Finish this sentence: This is the biggest Buckeye game since........
And forget winning the National Championship, what would a win against Clemson do for Ohio State and the Big Ten going forward?
Baver: Biggest game since the 2014 title game against Oregon. In 130 years of OSU football, there has been no other Buckeye team that has dominated like this one. This isn’t hyperbole....the numbers back this up. Clemson has not played an opponent that is ranked in the current AP Poll. This, while Ohio State is 5-0 against ranked teams. From that angle, if OSU can’t beat Dabo & Clemson this year, it will sting.
I think those outside Buckeye Nation believe it’s Clemson, Alabama, and then everyone else. Beat Clemson with a first-year head coach, and perceptions will change. What would it mean to the Big Ten? Perception wouldn’t change much outside of Big Ten country. The Big Ten as a whole isn’t that far behind the SEC, but the media isn’t going to give the B10 credit until Michigan, Penn St and Wisconsin start challenging for Nat’l Titles.
Colin: What are your thoughts on LSU vs Oklahoma in the other semi and the Cheeseheads vs the Ducks in the Rose?
Baver: I liked Oklahoma against the Vegas spread prior to the suspensions of edge rusher Ronnie Perkins and RB Rhamondre Stevenson. Perkins led the team in sacks and Stevenson was really coming on. 13½ is still a lot of points against a Lincoln Riley-led offense, but LSU is headed to the title game.
The Rose Bowl should be a battle of two evenly matched. Oregon impressed enough in the P12 title game for me to give them the edge here. I really think Justin Herbert is a 10-year starter in the NFL, and think the Duck defense is nails. I will definitely be rooting for the Badgers, but as a bettor, Oregon +2½ pts is best bet in what should be a coin-flip game.
Colin: Give me your final thoughts on Ohio St vs Clemson and a prediction.
Baver: I am not sure either defense can hold either opposing offense in check. But Clemson’s 4 semi-final games over the last 4 years have each gone under the Vegas (Over/Under) Total by an average of 18.5 pts per game. Venables’ defenses have been well prepared with extra prep time, no doubt. And departing OSU DC Jeff Hafley knows a bit about defensive schemes as well. While conventional wisdom points to a high scoring game, keep that stat in mind.
Ohio St got their best all-around effort from their three senior WRs, Hill, Victor and Mack, in the B10 Title Game. If Trevor, Etienne and company do but up 30+ pts like Vegas expects them to, then the OSU starting WRs need to rise to the occasion. Ohio St can’t expect Olave and Garrett Wilson to carry huge loads while the starters only catch a ball or two each.
Finally, Ohio State’s D-line vs Clemson’s O-line should be your matchup of the evening. Clemson may have the best O-line in CFB, and OSU’s D-line is a top-5 unit nationally at a minimum. The Buckeyes are going to need more help from the guys that will alternate lining up opposite Chase Young (i.e. Tyreke Smith, Tyler Friday, Zack Harrison).
I definitely give Ohio St the overall talent edge, and OSU now has Ryan Day’s offensive mind to counter Brent Venables’ defensive scheme. I see Ohio St advancing and have it: OSU 31 Clemson 28. Let’s get this on already.
—Brent Baver and Colin Gawel, 2019
