Colin & Baver Q & A: Ohio St v Michigan
Colin: Can OSU really put 14 players into the NFL, including two stud running backs, and really be even better now?
Baver: I think this year’s team actually has more talent, but I don’t think I’d say it’s better even if the Bucks are fully healthy come playoff time. Now is this time OSU could use some of the veteran leaders from last season. I look back to the team calling that players-only meeting after last year’s loss. Those kids took the bull by the horns. Not that there aren’t leaders that have emerged this year, but the senior leadership last season saved its best for last.
Colin: As evidenced by last year, the 12 team playoff has changed everything to the point where suffering a devastating loss to Michigan was actually one of the best things to ever happen to Coach Day and the OSU football program. Could the same thing happen this season?
Baver: A lot of similarities, for sure.
Like you, I like to ask: what would the oddsmakers say? Here is a guess: (A) Current money-line odds imply that OSU’s chance of losing to UM are roughly 25%. (B) But a loss to Michigan likely prevents OSU from getting a 1st round bye, which would force Ohio St to play a first round playoff game. Sound familiar? The seeding rules have changed, and OSU could still earn a bye without winning the Big Ten title. But not playing Indiana would really hurt Ohio St’s already weak strength of schedule. (C) A loss to UM probably drops OSU’s Nat’l Title odds from 30% to 20%, I’m guessing. If you do this math, the chances of lightning striking again this year are about 5%. So, a bit of a longer shot, but certainly possible.
Colin: Weather looks cold and possibly wet. If we get into a slugfest, does it bother you that our punter might not start for some high school teams? Also - he seems to have a knack for performing his worst on the rare occasions we actually need to play some field position. What gives?
Baver: The Buckeyes punt so rarely, that wasn’t one of my bigger concerns, but you raise a good point. Full disclosure, I just looked up the season punting numbers for the first time. OSU has punted just 20 times. This team has a high-end offense that operates at a very slow pace. That’s still nuts. OSU punts so infrequently that punter Joe McGuire doesn’t even qualify for the Big Ten’s individual punt rankings. But to your point, McGuire would only rank 12th in the Big Ten in yards per punt if he did qualify. And no, backup punter Nick McLarty would NOT provide better results, if anyone is asking. I did look back at the punting stats in key games over the past two seasons. In the 3 biggest road games plus the bitter cold Tennessee game, McGuire’s numbers are on par with his season stats for ’24 and ’25: basically 41 to 42 yds per punt.
Colin: Winning a natty has put Coach Day into rare air and his job is now completely stable no matter the outcome of the UM game. Do you think he coaches differently with the pressure off?
Baver: I’m not sure Buckeye fans will want to hear this, but while I expect Day and his offensive staff to be a bit more aggressive, I’m not sure how much more aggressive you can be with the number of injuries this Buckeye offense is currently dealing with. I’m not making excuses for anyone, just trying to stick to reality. In hindsight, OSU should have opened it up more a year, no doubt. But there was also a perfect storm of events that led to last year’s upset: (a) the devastating loss of the eventual Remington Award winning center to injury, (b) two short missed field goals, and (c) two critical interceptions. The longer you coach an elite CFB team, the greater the chances of losing as a big favorite become.
Head coach Ryan Day’s overall record is now literally as good as it gets. And he’s compiled that record by playing the stiffest competition that an OSU coach has ever faced. Still, I get it. Day and this team have to flip the recent script in this rivalry. Period.
Colin: Much has been made of Matt Patricia and this edition of the Silver Bullets, but last year’s D only gave up 13 points (and the TD was basically a pick 6) and OSU still lost. Does the D have to shut UM out?
Baver: Add: ‘mounting injuries on offense’ to your list. And with the weather concerns you had mentioned, let’s also remember that OSU’s redshirt freshman quarterback grew up in southern California. The betting odds for this game work out to Michigan scoring around 17 points. I tend to think UM won’t reach that total, but wouldn’t lay 10 pts here either.
Colin: Who on offense needs to perform to get OSU over 20 points on the road in the Big House?
Baver: #1 and #2 line up right next to one another, that being Tegra Tshabola and Phillip Daniels, Ohio St’s right guard and right tackle, respectively. As Joel Klatt harps on, OSU has its most success running behind the left side of its O-line. PFF (Pro Football Focus) supports that theory with its individual player metrics. Their pass protection metrics tell a similar story, with the better pass blocking numbers coming from Ohio St’s right side of the O-Line. Four out of the five Buckeyes' starting O-linemen hail from Ohio. Will this drive the pure motivation factor of this unit tomorrow? It has to. The time is now to end this painful skid against that TTUN.
Go Bucks!