Welcome back to another fun season of Friday Bet$ For Realz as some of your favorite Pencil Storm characters share actual bets they are making on NCAA and NFL football. Depending on our bank accounts we will be checking in throughout the 2026-27 with our blazing hot takes and sure-fire winners. However, it’s important to remember that sports betting is for suckers, so as long as you are cool with that…..Let’s Boogie!
BIG $ (Pencil Storm Browns Beat Writer)
Brian Phillips (Former Radio Morning Show Host CD101)
Ohio State +1.5 at Texas... The Buckeyes aren't dogs very often. This is just a gut play. Should be close. I like Ohio State to win outright. 24-23? Sounds about right.
Oklahoma -5.5 at Michigan. The market went wild after that silly game in Ann Arbor last week. We'll all see the clock, and the scoreboard. This is not a good Michigan team. Underwood better save his money now, because he's never playing in the NFL. Sooners easy.
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech -19.5. This isn't a ranked opponent, and we'll see old James Franklin doing whatever is necessary to cover the -19.5.
Rice +44.5 at Notre Dame. Rice's offense will look like a service academy. They'll play slow and run clock. It won't be fun, but I think the Owls can manage to squeeze enough life out of this game to stay within this massive number. Insane? Probably.
Bowling Green at Nebraska -30.5. BG lost to Tarlton State at home last week. Eddie George has a lot of work to do, and I just don't see anything but the Huskers giving their home fans a rare, good time.
Tulsa -13.5 at Sam Houston State... I can't believe how low this is. Tulsa is legit and Sam may not even get to two wins this year. Easy money in my opinion.
Charlotte at Ol Miss -47.5... Oh my God. I realize Ol Miss has LSU coming, but I can't do justice as to how horrifying this Charlotte team is. I don't see a win on their schedule after they lost in overtime to the freaking The Citadel last week. The Rebs can name their score. 73-0? Why not.
North Dakota State at Air Force +2.5... The fly boys are a sneaky pick to win the Mountain West this year. The Bison, newly minted members after stepping up from years of domination at the FCS, don't have much experience defending this type of offense. I like the Falcons to sneak away with this one outright.
Jeremy Porter (Pencil Storm Co-Editor in Chief, rock and roll musician, Mexican fast-food enthusiast, proudly representing that state to the north in hostile online territory MICHIGAN GO BLUE!)
Welp let’s just address the elephant in the room right off the bat. I can hear the groaning and moaning from Columbus all the way from southeastern Michigan… Some say it was Michigan favoritism, some say it’s Fan Duel’s fault, some (a few) side with the NCAA and say the clock they used to make that call doesn’t lie… from up here, with this perspective, I can tell you that 99.9% of the people I’ve talked to or seen in my feeds say Western was robbed. This includes the majority if the maize and blue faithful, to the surprise of many. I’m a UM fan, but I was excited for Western, and then heartbroken for them. No matter where you land (and I damn-well know where you land), Michigan is in trouble this year and that win will ultimately mean way less to their season than it would have for Western.
Anyhow, if I were the kinda fella who’d bet against his own team (I am not), I’d take Oklahoma -5. I also like Alabama -10 against Kentucky.
The NFL is my jam. I like the Bears -3 against Carolina. Look to the Bears to win the North this year. I’d take Minnesota -2 against the Packers.
And then there’s my Lions. I can say with some confidence that this year they will find new ways to be mediocre, new ways to lose games, uncover rules long hidden in crusty old rule books that haven’t been read since Bobby Lane’s jock strap hung from the hook in is locker, and continue to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. But hey, it’s the Lions – maybe they’ll go 12-4 and win the division and shit the bed in the NFC championship! Give me -7 against the Saints and we’ll revisit next week,
Colin Gawel (Pencilstorm guy / musician solo and with Watershed)
OSU v Texas (no bet)
I don’t love OSU on the road at Texas. Replacing 8 defensive starters two years in a row is a tall task. Sure the Buckeyes always reload and have ace DC Matt Patricia, but without Super Genius Caleb Downs and fellow high IQ player Sonny Styles lining up the defense I have a hard time believing Sark cannot draw up some plays to confuse this young secondary. Arch + Cam Coleman + 9 months of preparation + two straight devastating losses to OSU + a hostile night game atmosphere in Austin = tough sledding. I will not bet against my squad but if Texas cannot win this one they are in big trouble.
I love me some Paul Finebaum but when he recently slagged Ryan Day with an uncharacteristically weak take saying he cannot beat anyone, I would like it noted that Coach Day has beaten Marcus Freeman 3 times, Sark 2 times, and both Curt Cignetti and Dan Lanning in the past four years.
South Florida vs Army (-3.5)
Brian Hartline was a hall of fame WR coach at OSU. After watching him as OC for one year are we sure he really is ready to be a head coach? I seem to remember him crashing an ATV at 3AM the night after a game. Obviously, drinking was involved. I have no problem with any of this but I do wonder if Coach Hartline has more in common with Freddie Kitchens than say.. Jim Tressel.
And playing Army is no fun. Those guys are so serious. It’s the exact opposite of pounding beers and wrecking 4 wheelers. I’ll take the Black Knights -3.5.
NFL / Browns QB Room
I don’t bet on the NFL very often but last year I made a killing betting against JJ McCarthy for the Vikings. Even a cursory look at his college numbers shows a huge discrepancy between when Connor Stallions was on the sideline and when he was not. It’s much harder to put up big passing stats when you don’t know if the defense is blitzing. JJ is now on the bench but I am hoping to run that strategy back in 2026. The Browns QB room is ripe for such a system but I will have to check the props closer to game time to see how the value is looking. It is going to be bad. How bad will it be?
Ben Galli (Pencilstorm NBA Beat Writer)
Rutgers + 3.5 vs Boston College - I’m looking for Rutgers to bounce back in Boston after an embarrassing loss to UMass last week. Shout out Marcus Camby
Ohio State vs Texas Under 49.5 - I usually stay away from betting for or against the Buckeyes, but the Under Saturday night looks like easy money to me. Not once has one of these games seen a total score over 47 points. (21, 42, 45, 31, 47 in the five matchups since 2005)