Lots of the usual banter lately about the NBA’s shortcomings and always impending existential crisis. Ya know, nobody hates that league quite like its biggest fans. Then the NBA and its boys put out great ratings and viewership statistics as the online melodrama of the regular season hits all its marks. But that ends today.
Yup, it’s time for the NBA Playoffs, baby!! When we can all stop bitching and watch the greatest sport in the world played at its highest level. The East is wide open this year, despite Detroit’s dominance, which bodes well for the Cleveland Cavaliers. The West, much less so, with most agreeing that it will be Oklahoma City or San Antonio as its champion, with some consideration thrown to Denver and the best player in the world.
I got 12 of the 16 playoff teams right in my Season Preview, but my pick for Champion is laughable now. Never trust your legacy to Kevin Durant. My East-winner Cavaliers don’t seem to be panning out either, but that is why we play the games. Here are some of my major storylines for the 1st Round, and how I see things shaking out.
Cleveland, the James Harden Playoff Experience is upon you. Prepare to ride the roller coaster that is the Beard in the postseason. For four games, he may dominate and elevate, but then, and like that, poof! He’s gone. The longer the Cavs can avoid his usual disappearing act, the longer they’ll keep playing. It’s just never not happened before.
Watching Oklahoma City and the Spurs play is watching the future of basketball. It’s weird and ridiculous and amazing. These teams bring out the best in each other, and, ignoring certain playing styles, the basketball is exquisite. Both teams challenge some of my steadfast rules for the NBA: That it’s still very hard to repeat as champions, and first-time playoff teams always end up short. Perhaps that won’t be the case, besides literally, for Wemby.
This is likely the last playoff match-up we’ll get between two legends. That’s right, Ja’Sean Tate and Luke Kennard, though the casuals will probably focus on LeBron versus Durant. This could be LeBron’s last run with the Lakers, and while Houston is heavily favored, there’s the slightest of hopes that Luka Doncic’s European Vacation for plasma and stem cell treatments allows him to come back late in this series. Regardless, it will still be a joy to see these all-time greats go against each other when it matters, for probably the last time.
Western Conference
#1 Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18) vs. #8 Phoenix Suns (45-37) Thunder -3000
The Thunder are still rolling, but they’ve also never seemed so beatable. That could be thanks to the Spurs, but OKC doesn’t have that same air of inevitability this year. The Suns should be a breeze for them, but after that, they’re gonna learn why it’s so hard to go back-to-back.
Prediction: Thunder in 4
#2 San Antonio Spurs (62-20) vs. #7 Portland Trail Blazers (42-40) Spurs -2000
The Trail Blazers are another nice story for a city that loves their basketball. Who knew their coach getting arrested in a gambling probe after their season-opener would bode so well for them? Tiago Splitter has these guys playing hard, but they’ll soon be looking ahead to next year with a healthy Damian Lillard. This series should be short shrift for Wemby and the upstart Spurs in his first of many.
Prediction: Spurs in 5
#3 Denver Nuggets (54-28) vs. #6 Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) Nuggets -350
Any series with Anthony Edwards in it is gonna be must-watch ball. Add in the greatest player in the world, still salty from the T-Wolves ending his title defense two years ago, and the drama couldn’t be heightier. Unfortunately for Ant, this Timberwolves team doesn’t seem to have enough to take down a determined Denver squad this time.
Prediction: Nuggets in 6
#4 Los Angeles Lakers (53-29) vs. #5 Houston Rockets (52-30) Rockets -575
The Rockets seemed to be mired in Durant’s specialty, team dysfunction, as recently as March, when they struggled to a 9-7 record, but they start the playoffs strong off a 9-1 run. They’ll be facing a Lakers team that was 15-2 in March and making waves, before recent injuries took Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves out of the equation for 4-6 weeks. Season over. So we think. Neither is expected back this series, so the Lakers’ only hope is that Houston can’t keep it together when it counts. Only a deluded homer would ever pick L.A. here.
Prediction: Lakers in 6
Eastern Conference
#1 Detroit Pistons (60-22) vs #8 Orlando Magic (45-37) Pistons -500
Detroit Rock City!! I don’t think enough is being said about the biggest surprise of this season. The Pistons ran the East pretty much from jump this year. Cade Cunningham will be playing his fourth game since returning from a collapsed lung, and Detroit is gonna need him back to 100% quick in what could be an underrated series against the physical Magic. Still, the Pistons have been too dominant this year.
Prediction: Pistons in 6
#2 Boston Celtics (56-26) vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers (45-37) Celtics -900
One of the East’s best rivalries might be another series to watch. Joel Embiid is expected to miss Game 1 but should return soon, pending his recovery from an appendectomy. Never change, Joel. The Sixers are formidable, and if everything clicks for them, they can steal a few games and make this interesting. But as usual, probably not.
Prediction: Celtics in 6
#3 New York Knicks (53-29) vs. #6 Atlanta Hawks (46-36) Knicks -275
The Knicks-Trae Young rivalry continues. New York desperately wants this to be their year, in a season that has not lived up to expectations. Rumors have begun percolating that if Mike Brown can’t get far in the playoffs, the Knicks may quickly cut ties. They can’t let Trae Young beat them again.
Prediction: Knicks in 5
#4 Cleveland Cavaliers (52-30) vs. #5 Toronto Raptors (46-36) Cavs -550
The preseason East favorite Cavs were another team that struggled to meet expectations this year. Injuries were part of the story, but the big shake-up came at the trade deadline when the Cavs traded young All-Star guard Darius Garland for future first-ballot James Harden. Since then, the Cavs have shown they’re still a danger to any foe. This series will be a test of whether Cleveland has learned from recent playoff disappointment.
Prediction: Cavs in 5
2nd Round and On Outlook:
Cavs have a real shot at reaching the Finals, and I think the East is gonna give us some great series. But I don’t think anyone can touch OKC or San Antone this season. The Era of The Alien may soon be upon us.
Western Conference
Thunder over Lakers in 6
Spurs over Nuggets in 7
Spurs over Thunder in 7
Eastern Conference
Cavs over Pistons in 7
Knicks over Celtics in 6
Knicks over Cavs in 7
Finals
Spurs over Knicks in 6