What Can You Buy For $115,500,000? The All-Terrible Contract MLB Team for 2013

Hello. Colin here. Sitting around the coffee shop on this slow Memorial Day morning, my thoughts turned to baseball in general and more specifically: Why does any team ever sign a pitcher to a long term deal? 

Check out this starting five: for 2013:

Johan Santana  $25,500,000

Cliff Lee            $25,000,000

C.C. Sabathia     $23,000,000

Tim Lincecum   $22,000,000

Roy Halladay    $20,000,000

So what do you get for your $115,500,000 buy you in 2013 dollars?

A combined record of 14 wins and 14 losses. Yikes!  

Conversely, if you spend wisely, say a paltry $ 3,010,750 you could get 34 wins vs 3 losses.

Matt Harvey   $498,750        5-0

Matt Moore    $1,000,000     8-0

Patrick Corbin $494,000       8-0

Lance Lynn     $513,000        7-1

Mike Minor      $505,000      6-2              =    34 - 3

Ok, that's all from the coffee shop, customers starting to roll in.Happy Memorial Day! Watch some baseball and drink some beer why don't you?   Turning it over to Brian Phillips from here...

 The 2013 All Terrible Contract Team  by Brian Phillips

With the Cubs signing Anthony Rizzo to a long term deal recently we are reminded of baseball's new paradigm: Lock those key kids up long term. They aren't all going to work out, but over the long haul it saves money over giving former superstars who may or may not be as old as they say they are ten year deals.  

Catcher: Joe Maurer

$23 million a year ending in 2018 for a guy playing a high attrition position. I know he's a home town hero and he can hit, but there's no way he returns on that kind of dough. The contract keeps the small market Twins from addressing a host of other needs.... most notably pitchers who can reach at least 90 on the gun. 

First Base: Albert Pujols 

I'll give Pujols credit for trying to slog through with a nasty case of Plantar Fascitis. This isn't about his toughness. It's about how much money and how long this deal runs. He'll be somewhere between 43 and 60 when it's over. The Angels are a dumb organization and will languish under the weight of this and the Hamilton deals for years to come. 

Second Base: Robbie Cano 

Let me clarify.... This pertains to the contract the Yankees are going to give Cano. Make no mistake, Cano is a great player. That said though he's hired Jay Z's new firm to represent him, and the rapper will be looking to make a splash. Just watch... Cano will get 10 years from the Yanks because otherwise the Angels will give it to him.

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez

I don't really have to explain this one do I? Instead I bring you this from The Onion Sports Network.  

Outfield:  Josh Hamilton

See "Swingers" story for more on Hamilton's free swinging ways. 

Outfield: Jason Werth. 

He looks like the Unibomber these days, probably hoping not to be recognized while out at Kroger. He need not worry. They don't care about bloated contracts in D.C. 

Outfield: Alfonso Soriano

Still another year to go after this one before the Cubs are finally rid of a deal they seemingly made during the Dot Com Era.  

Starting Pitcher: John Lackey

The Red Sox are paying this creep $16.5 mil a year through 2014. There is a 2015 club option though. Sure there is Lackey.

Relief Pitcher: Brandon League

The Dodgers gave this guy a three year/22 million dollar deal in the off season. He won't be the closer by July 1 the way things are going.  

At Home Feet Up: Chone Figgins 

 The Mariners are still paying on Figgins' four year deal. At last word he was released by the Marlins on March 28th. Miami owner Jeffrey Loria replaced him with a LeRoy Neiman painting of Brooks Robinson. 

Brian Phillips and Colin Gawel do all sorts of things and write for Pencilstorm. You can learn more by clicking here for our contributors page.

Swingers as in..To Swing. 2013 MLB So Far

As we watch the 2013 Major League season pass the 20 percent pole we are in need of a new name for hitters. Swingers? Sounds kinky, and there's nothing sexy about the approach we're seeing. I need not pound your brain with reams of mind numbing statistics. It's sufficient to know that dating back to last season, the past eight months of play are the highest eight strike out months in Major League history. (And the top two were September of 2012 and April of this year.) Why? We've entered a new golden age of pitchers for one. Guys are developing in some cases four or five pitches with themes and variations on each.

And stepping to the dish eager to help are a whole host of batters possessing the approach of the little league kid I saw this morning swinging at a pitch a foot above his head. He has an excuse... he's 9 years old and wants to hit a home run because home runs are cool. Josh Hamilton is 32 years old, and wants to hit a home run too. He has four so far, all against MLB's closest thing to a little league squad the Houston Astros. Again no need to bludgeon with stats. Just know that Hamilton is swinging at over 50% of the first pitches he sees.....It's killing him, and the Angels. Between Hamilton and .239 hitting Albert Pujols the Angels are as I write 14-22 and floundering in fourth place. To win the west they'll have to go at least 76-50 from here on out, and that's being optimistic.  

 Biggest Surprises:

The American League East isn't going at all how I thought. The Blue Jays have been terrible. Josh Johnson and Jose Reyes are both injured. Reigning NL Cy Young Award Winner R.A. Dickey has been anything but Cy Young worthy and is trying to pitch through a balky back. Toronto isn't hitting, and aren't pitching and they sit in the cellar. The Red Sox and Yankees meanwhile perch on top with the Orioles, a game separating all three. How New York has managed their start is beyond me. They've had to play Lyle Overbay at first base most days for crying out loud. Meanwhile the Sox have seen Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz reclaim their careers.   

While no one was paying attention, and while many of their games were being played in arctic conditions, the Twins have a winning record.

Matt Cain, David Price, and Stephen Strasburg are all among the starters struggling to get themselves going.  

Can't slam the Angels without taking the Dodgers to task. All their free spending has them buried in last place.  

After a dismal stretch that included a 2-4 mark against the Astros, my Mariners are nonetheless a half game out of second in the west.

 No Surprises

The Astros and Marlins are God awful, though I will say this. Houston at least competes most nights.  

The Braves and Cardinals are both in first place. Are there better run organizations in baseball? I don't think so.   

The Mets can't hit.  

Guys I Have On My Struggling Fantasy Team That I Don't Like

I have four teams this season, and three are doing fine. In my big dough league though things are rough. I'm languishing in 7th with an anemic offense. If you play the fantasy game a team like this sends you dumpster diving on the waiver wire trying to catch someone on a brief jag. To that end I have on my roster right now: 

Travis Hafner

Yunel Escober

James Loney

Loney looks like another Rays' scrap heap special. They squeezed a big season out of Casey Kotchman a few years back after all... Loney is currently hitting .375. Probably not for long.  

Escobar is an odious homophobic punk with a terrible attitude. Fantasy is a mercenary game sometimes. I ain't proud of it, but if it's any solace he'll probably stink.  

Hafner I've had for a few weeks. He started off hot, but has cooled significantly. Tribe fans still may not recognize him however because he's not on the DL.... yet....  

Also of note is a guy I added last night. Scott Kazmir was all but forgotten.... For whatever reason the 29 year old Cleveland hurler has rediscovered a heater topping out at 96. The difference being he's not walking anyone. Even when his arm was at it's most lithe he'd walk the house while you weren't looking. I'll keep a close eye for you.  

AND....

If you're a fan of pitching take some time to see the Mets' Matt Harvey. The 24 year old has all the weapons, and a bulldog competitive streak too. A good place to start is Harvey's outing against the White Sox. While warming up he developed a damned nose bleed he was so fired up. What followed was a one hit, no walk masterpiece marred only by a "bleeder" infield single. I have this guy on two fantasy teams and he ain't going anywhere.) 

 Brian Phillips is the daytime DJ for the legendary Independent Rock n Roll Blowtorch CD102.5 in Columbus,OH. He knows a thing or two about a thing or two. 

Video of So-So Cheap Trick Songs Is Easier to Find Than Dramatic World Series Home Runs

I grew up in Columbus, Ohio, with the Reds and Indians each being approximately 120 miles driving time from my home. In a stroke of genius, I will now use YouTube to sum up the two franchises' fortunes since 1980 in two single at-bats. This is going to be great! Searching YouTube. They have everything on here. Here... we... go! Um, hold on, let me try Marlins win. Um, no. OK, Eric the Red Bombs. Oh, it's Fernandez with a "z" not with an "s." WTF?  No clips??

Ugh. I had planned on showing a concise clip of Eric Davis's Riverfront-rattling bomb off Dave Stewart and the favored A's in Game One of the 1990 World Series and the Tribe's Tony Fernandez heartbreaking 10th-inning error, costing Cleveland the 1997 title to the upstart Marlins as my two defining moments.

Yet, you baseball geeks have let me down. What are you good for anyway? I can search and find a live version of Cheap Trick performing "It's Only Love" from Harpo's in Detroit on The Doctor tour in less than 30 seconds, yet not one clip of the two most definitive plays in Reds and Indians' recent histories are posted. I mean, nobody has bothered to upload that stuff to YouTube? You nerds disgust me. For the love of all that is holy, please take a five-minute break managing one of your seven fantasy teams and upload these clips before all of Ohio is jinxed. In the meantime, the rest of you can enjoy these still photos from the 11 o'clock news. Not too shabby...

Seriously nerds, do it.​ Remember, it's up to you.  

From The Doctor tour. LIVE 11/14/86 Harpos Detroit, MI

Reggie Jackson's Missing $10K and the Failure to Reach Climax: 10 Pieces of Great Baseball Writing

Opening Day approaches. To get you in the mood, here are synopses of ten pieces of great baseball writing.​

Gay Talese’s 1966 profile of Joe DiMaggio
​Tom Verducci's 1999 profile of Sandy Koufax

Talese produced two of the most famous magazine profiles of the 1960s. His profile of Frank Sinatra, which appeared in Esquire in 1966, captured the singer as he approached 50, before he recorded the comeback album Strangers in the Night. A short time later, Talese profiled another prominent Italian-American at a similar stage in life. Joe DiMaggio had retired and was living in San Francisco with his widowed sister when Talese arrived. Like Sinatra, DiMaggio was initially an unwilling subject. Eventually, though, he allowed Talese to accompany him to the restaurants and golf courses where he spent his time. “I try to follow my subjects unobtrusively while observing them in revealing situations,” Talese once said.

The story ends at spring training, with DiMaggio taking swings in a batting cage, using Mickey Mantle’s bat:

“He hit three more squarely enough, and then he swung again and there was a hollow sound.

“‘Ohhh,’ DiMaggio yelled, dropping his bat, his fingers stung. “I was waiting for that one.’ He left the batting cage rubbing his hands together. The reporters watched. Nobody said anything. Then DiMaggio said to one of them, not in anger nor in sadness, but merely as a simple stated fact, ‘There was a time when you couldn’t get me out of there.’”

DiMaggio was a private man, but Koufax was “Rodmanesque” by comparison, according to this searching-for-Sandy piece. How private was Koufax? Verducci writes that when he attended the University of Cincinnati on a basketball scholarship, he didn't tell his parents that he was also a member of the baseball team. 

Verducci doesn’t land an interview with Koufax, but he’s such a good reporter and writer that it doesn’t really matter. Great anecdote about Koufax’s dominance: He pitched deep into games so reliably that the relievers on his team used to treat the night before his starts "the way a sailor treats shore leave," in Verducci's telling. One day, Koufax did not appear strong enough to go his usual nine innings. His manager, Walter Alston, visited him on the mound.

"How do you feel, Sandy?" Alston asked.

"I'll be honest with you, Skip," Koufax said. "I feel a hell of a lot better than the guy you've got warming up."

David Remnick’s 1987 profile of Reggie Jackson

Remnick, who today edits The New Yorker, was a newspaper reporter in his late 20s when he spent time with Jackson, who was about to begin his final season. Jackson, one of the smarter players of his era, could see the end coming. “You don’t retire at your convenience,” he said. “You don’t die when you’re ready.”

Jackson liked money, and he presaged Michael Jordan as a corporate pitchman. A self-described “fence-sitter” on politics, he told Remnick: “I don’t want to put myself in a position to say too many things, because a lot of the people I’m in contact with are CEOs.” At one point in the story, Jackson has to cancel a dinner with John Scully, then the chief executive of Apple, because he’s temporarily misplaced a sack containing $10,000. Jacked and two flunkies, named Ted and Walt, scramble and eventually find the money in the trunk of a Porsche. Remnick writes: “Jackson’s relief was considerable, though nothing compared with Ted’s and Walt’s.”

The Worst Team Money Can Buy (1993) by Bob Klapisch and John Harper

Beat writers at rival newspapers wrote this book about the 1992 New York Mets, a team at the hard end of a golden era. The club, which lost 90 games, featured difficult characters, including Eddie Murray (“The free food’s upstairs,” he said to a reporter in an attempt to shoo him out of the clubhouse) and Howard Johnson (“a nice man turned werewolf by repeated failure in critical situations”), as well as the intelligent but self-destructive David Cone. In the book, the writers describe how Cone went out drinking after the game in Atlanta when he let runners score while arguing with an umpire. Cone showed up at a bar where the writers were having beers and bought them a round. The writers ordered a shot for Cone, who downed it, rushed out the door, threw up on the sidewalk, calmly returned to thank the writers and resumed drinking. In another part of the book, Cone wonders aloud about what it would be like to be hung like Darryl Strawberry, even for a day: “I’d like to see how much my life would change.”

Bottom of the 33rd (2011) by Dan Barry

In 1981, the Pawtucket Red Sox and Rochester Red Wings played a game that lasted eight hours before the umpires finally sent everyone home. Wade Boggs and Cal Ripken Jr. played in the epic game, which this book recounts in terrific detail, but the author doesn’t give their stories more weight than those of Dave Koza, Drungo Hazewood and others who played only briefly in the major leagues, if at all. Barry also tracks down the team executives, reporters and fans—only 19 were left when the game was called—who were a part of the bizarre night, which Barry suggests “morphed into some kind of extravagant form of performance art, in which the failure to reach climax is the point.” 

Halted at 4 a.m., after 32 innings, the game resumed later in the season. It took just one inning and 18 minutes to complete.

Roger Angell’s 1980 profile of Bob Gibson

Ted Williams thought that pitchers were “dumb by breed.” Bob Gibson felt similarly about hitters. “I don’t know what’s the matter with so many hitters—it’s like their brains small up,” he told Angell when The New Yorker writer visited the proud and competitive right-hander in Omaha, five years into his retirement.

Gibson had recently moved into a new house at the time Angell visited. It was summer. They went for a dip in the pool. Angel writes:

“The pool was built to Gibson’s design; its sides and bottoms are painted black—a da Vinci-like idea of his, meant to help the water keep the heat of the sun in the spring and fall. Somehow, though, he had not remembered the warmth of mid-summer Nebraska sunshine, and when he and I slipped into the inky waves, the water temperature stood at ninety-two degrees—only a fraction cooler than the steamy, locust-loud night air. ‘Another mistake,’ Gibson said mildly.’”

Tom Verducci’s 2003 profile of Rickey Henderson

Henderson was 44 years old and playing in an independent league when Verducci wrote this appreciation of a “modern-day Yogi Berra, only faster.” The story of Henderson’s legend is mostly through the eyes of the players, managers and executives who had worked with him over his long career. 

An A’s traveling security describes how Henderson liked to report late to spring training, a habit Jose Canseco picked up: “He didn't want to report before Jose did. So Rickey would drive into camp, and if he didn't see Jose's car parked there, he'd drive back out. Rickey made sure he was the last one to report."

Alex Rodriguez tells of the season they played together in Seattle: "Sometimes he'd come back to the dugout after an umpire called him out, and I'd go, 'Rickey, was that a strike?' And he'd go, 'Maybe, but not to Rickey.' "

The prologue to Underworld (1997) by Don DeLillo

Underworld is a Cold War novel that opens at the Dodgers-Giants playoff game in 1951 that ended on Bobby Thompson's famous home run. The game took on added meaning for DeLillo when he learned that it coincided with the U.S. government's announcement that the Soviet Union had tested an atomic bomb. I haven't finished the novel (it's 800 pages), but the prologue is amazing. In fact, it was released as novella in 2001, four years after Underworld was published.

DeLillo describes Giants manager Leo Durocher as "hard-rock Leo, the gashouse scrapper, a face straight from the Gallic Wars." Near the Giants' dugout sat Frank Sinatra, Jackie Gleason, Toots Shor and J. Edgar Hoover. In DeLillo's telling, Gleason pukes as Thompson hits the home run, distracting Sinatra as the celebration envelops the Polo Grounds:

"Frank persists in looking down. He allows one foot to list to port so he can examine the side of his shoe for vomit marks. These are handcrafted shoes from a narrow street with a quaint name in old London.

"And Shor says, 'We just won unbelievable, they're ripping up the joint, I don't know whether to laugh, shit or go blind.'

"And Frank says, 'I'm rooting for number one or number three.'"

"99 Reasons Why Baseball is Better Than Football" by Thomas Boswell

A sample from the column Boswell wrote for The Washington Post in 1987:

No 20. Eighty degrees, a cold beer, and a short-sleeve shirt are better than thirty degrees, a hip flask, and six layers of clothes under a lap blanket. Take your pick: sunshine or frostbite.

No. 35: Football has Tank and Mean Joe. Baseball has the Human Rain Delay and Charlie Hustle.

No 45. The entire NFL playoff system is a fraud. Go on, explain with a straight face why the Chiefs (10-6) were in the playoffs in 1986 but the Seahawks (10-6) were not. There is no real reason. Seattle was simply left out for convenience. When baseball tried the comparably bogus split-season fiasco with half-season champions in 1981, fans almost rioted.

73. The majority of players on a football field in any game are lost and unaccountable in the middle of pileups. Confusion hides a multitude of sins. Every baseball player's performance and contribution are measured and recorded in every game.

The Numbers Game (2005) by Alan Schwarz

Number crunching hardly began with Bill James. In this history of baseball statistics, Schwarz describes how the effort to quantify performance is nearly as old as the game itself. In 1906, a newspaper writer went through scorebooks in an attempt to determine the true value of the sacrifice and the stolen base. Branch Rickey had a numbers guy. Two brothers used IBM punch cards to determine that Tug McGraw had been the best pitcher in the National League in 1969 based on his Player Win Average, the Wins Above Replacement level of its day. 

Of course, in spite of this rich history, baseball continues to allow flat-earthers to sit in positions of authority. Where I live, stats-minded Royals fans are debating the extent to which Ned Yost will hurt the team with his calls for sacrifice bunts in the early innings of games. Yost's tactics have been discredited but he gets to keep making them because, as a player, he was good enough at the sport to break into the major leagues but not good enough (he appeared in 219 games) to make the kind of money that lasts a lifetime. In short, he's "baseball man," and that's who gets to manage baseball teams.

​David Martin worked at alternative newspapers before abandoning ship. He lives in Kansas City and roots for the Indians. Follow him on Twitter: @david2martin

Pencilstorm MLB Opening Day Party at the Treebar - Monday, April 1, 4 p.m.

Greetings. Hope you enjoy reading Pencilstorm as much as we enjoy putting it together. We have been running live now for close to a month and are truly humbled at how many people have been checking in on our little endeavor. In addition to providing you with another option to kill time at work or in the car, we also hope to step out of the basement every once and a while and do actual real-life, flesh-and-blood, human-type stuff by hosting events. Or put another way, as much fun as it is to bash Jeff Hassler reviews on Facebook, wouldn't it be so much cooler to tell him in person that Bon Jovi isn't better than the Stones?

​With that thought in mind, between our one-month anniversary and MLB Opening Day, we thought it was time for a celebration. So please join us Monday, April 1, at the legendary Treebar to watch the Cincinnati Reds versus the L.A. Angels. First pitch at 4 p.m. and specials on PBR and Four String Brew the entire game. CD1025 jock/Pencilstorm baseball writer Brain Phillips and myself will be there to judge your fantasy roster. If we approve, we will buy you a beer or at least pass you the peanut bowl.

Haven't you spent enough time staring at a lifeless computer? Why not spend some time staring at cable TV? It's time to step out and talk to actual earthlings. You can do this! Don't be a pussy (talking to you Hassler; It's Opening Day and I'm pretty sure you aren't going to have an Easter hangover), stop by and enjoy some suds with the Pencilstorm crew and watch the Reds win the first of 94 victories on their way to an appearance in the N.L. Championship series. — Colin

​Treebar info here

Brian Phillips' 2013 Baseball Preview: AL West

Welcome to Part 3 of my 2013 Major League Baseball preview. So far I've crowned Toronto and Detroit division champions. Just in the past few days several members of the Yankees have been debilitated by injury and A. Rod has been pronounced dead. Today we move onto the American League West, which welcomes a new member with open arms. You would too knowing you'd play the woeful Houston Astros 18 times this season. Glad to have you, boys! The Astros Effect will pad the records of the other four clubs in this division, and good for them because even the Angels and Rangers have more than a few flaws.

I should note in the interest of full disclosure... I am a lifelong Seattle Mariners fan. If my remarks on the club turn bitter, hateful, and snarky please understand my words will come from a place of pain and suffering. 

1. Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim

As I write we seemingly have discovered the limit to what owner Artie Moreno will spend. Bizarrely he's low balling the second coming of Mickey Mantle. Rather than give Mike Trout a raise commensurate to his production the Angels handed him a bump barely over what the collective bargaining agreement requires for a second year player. Since Trout still lives with his parents I'm sure he'll be fine.... and I'm sure his agent won't let him forget it. 

Trout is a great place to start with this club. His 2012 Rookie of the Year season was so awesome, there's little doubt that had he been with the Angels from the opening bell they would have won the division. Not to be a drag, but there's no way Trout replicates. He'll be great, but his 2012 was a season for the ages, and clubs have had all off season to figure out his weaknesses. Look for more five-tool production, but closer to earth.

Trout is the least of their concerns. Let's start with Albert Pujols, now entering the second of his baffling 10-year deal with LAA. What the Angels are paying for, of course, is Pujols playing for the Cardinals through 2010. What they have now is one of the best in baseball, but not $21-million-a year-best. Instead they'll get .290/30/100. 

Enter Josh Hamilton. Early last season, while Pujols was flailing and the Angels were losing, Hamilton was off to a stunning start with rival Texas. Over his first 273 at bats Hamilton went .319/25/73 with a home-run-to-fly-ball percentage at an unsustainable 32%. The second half he collapsed, and after it was all over and the Rangers were trying to figure out how they lost the division. Team President Nolan Ryan, paraphrasing the movie Airplane, said Hamilton "picked the wrong week to quit dipping chew." I'll leave that to others. What I can say is Hamilton's contact rate is in full collapse. Always free swinging, he finished 2012 meeting ball at an awful 70%. Without going into the sabermetric weeds here, that number portends to a hitter with declining skills. Forget .300. Look .275/30/100.

When you spend the big bucks, something has give. The Angels go into 2013 with the barely serviceable Alberto Callaspo at third, the solid but unspectacular Erick Aybar at short, and Howie Kendrick at second. In center Peter Bourjos has been a disappointment and complains of hip problems at the age of only 26. DH/OF Mark Trumbo can slam 25 home runs again, but don't expect anything more than .250. 

The Angels' rotation is led by 20 game winner Jared Weaver. He's a warrior, but his strikeout rate has drifted downward to league average the past couple of seasons. He'll be solid in 2013, but he's probably peaked. C.J. Wilson came over from the Rangers a year ago and turned in a fine first half, and crappy second. He has to cut the walks. The rotation rounds out with Jason Vargas (ex Mariner innings eater) Tommy Hanson (one time stud prospect with a stalled career) and Joe Blanton (meh). 

With Tommy John grad Ryan Madson still rehabbing Ernesto Frieri will close to begin the season. Other than a propensity for the gopher pitch he'll be fine in the role. The Halos were smart to add Sean Burnett as their bullpen depth is a concern.

The Angels Will Sing On High If....

- Hamilton can stay healthy, turn in 550-plus at bats, and be a bit more selective.

- Pujols gets out of the gate way better than 2012.

- The bullpen overachieves.

- Weaver can reverse his concerning strikeout trend.

- Trout turns up on SportsCenter plays of the week.... weekly.

The Gates Of Hell Will Open If... 

- Hamilton gets hurt and that contact rate erodes further.

- Pujols isn't locked in.

- That bullpen implodes.

- The league finds Trout's weaknesses, if there are any.

Bottom Line

94 wins. 

Fantasy Target

- Frieri. I could easily see Madson never closing this year.

Fantasy Turd

- Hamilton. Let someone else take him in the second round. 

2. Texas Rangers

The other day Rangers' manager Ron Washington expressed concern that the Seattle Mariners of all clubs would sneak up on the whole division this season. First I laughed out loud, and then I began to grasp what he was actually saying. Last season the Rangers led most of the way, only to have the beer-league Oakland A's, chew-stained uniforms and all, sneak up from behind and behead them on the final day of the season. The fear is gripping him. First off, Skip, take a deep breath. Your club will compete, and no the Mariners are not going to get you.... at least not this year. 

Josh Hamilton is gone, and as you can discern from above I believe the Rangers made the right call. Nobody was giving a 32-year-old recovering heroin addict with a checkered injury history 5 years at $125 million... except the Angels. In the short term the Rangers aren't going to be quite what they were, but they'll be in the hunt regardless. There aren't many better at the hot corner than Adrian Beltre. The Rangers will look to him to lead the way. The club hopes second baseman Ian Kinsler can match his power with a batting average rebound. Two straight years of disappointment there may be difficult to turn around. Mitch Moreland will get a shot to hold the first base gig. The tools are there, and if health follows he'll be solid. Moreland will have to be as the Rangers prefer newly acquired vet Lance Berkman to DH the majority of the time. Catcher A.J. Pierzynski arrives as a free agent from the White Sox coming off a career-high 27-home-run binge. Texas will be ecstatic if he can hit 20.

Without Hamilton's power the Rangers would be served to get shortstop Elvis Andrus moving again. Over the second half of 2012 they stopped running and Andrus tallied only 5 steals, ending the year with a career low 21. I'm wondering if the still young Andrus entirely gets it after missing a spring game recently because a newly inked tattoo was too painful. Perhaps his tat is the face of No. 1 Texas prospect Jurickson Profar to remind him the 20-year-old isn't far away. Andrus could be trade bait by the deadline. Another highly touted prospect, Leonys Martin, may be ready to stick. Craig Gentry is still around to battle him in centerfield, and Martin could turn up in left too. 

The rotation looks solid with Yu Darvish expected by some to make a run at the AL Cy Young this year. His only flaw is in the walk department. Matt Harrison has turned into an able young starter, but opponents do tend the put the ball in play. Derek Holland had some issues with shoulder fatigue last year. If he can stay healthy, he's set for growth. The Rangers need to stop jerking Alexi Ogando around and let him settle into a starter role. He was effective there in 2011. Colby Lewis and fading prospect Martin Perez will battle for the fifth spot. Forget flame thrower Neftali Feliz; he's on the shelf recovering from Tommy John until at least August.

Out in the pen health will be a concern. The unit is set to be helmed by two Tommy John arms in Joe Nathan and ex-Royals closer Joakim Soria. There's a lot less experience out there with Mike Adams and Koji Uehara moving on via free agency. 

They'll Finally Get Over That Last Hill If...

- Moreland produces and takes pressure off Berkman. 

- And thus Berkman gives Texas 450 at bats and a .300/20/75 line. 

- Manger Washington cranks up the running game. The speed is there. Use it.

- Darvish keeps the K rate up and cuts the walks. 

- Ogando settles in to a 2011 like season.

- Andrus gets off to a great start, but Profar is ready, and the Rangers flip Andrus for a bat and/or bullpen arm. 

A Hot Texas Wind Will Blow Their Season Away If.... 

- Moreland can't hack an everyday role.

- Kinsler continues his quiet deterioration. 

- Andrus doesn't respond well to Profar talk. 

Bottom Line

92 Wins

Fantasy Target

-Moreland. Now don't go crazy, but if you're looking for a young corner infielder with 20-23 HR upside that won't kill your batting average, you could do worse.

Fantasy Turd

- Kinsler. Sure he has two 30/30 seasons, but don't pay for that now. It ain't gonna happen again. 

3. Oakland Athletics

The 2012 Oakland A's remind that what I've been writing here may be a damned waste of time. Did anyone see them winning the AL West? Anyone? And yet they did, and in stunning fashion. On June 30 the A's were 13 games behind the Rangers. They got red hot in July and never cooled. With nine games remaining and five back it appeared too little too late. And yet on the final day of the season Oakland completed a series sweep of the Rangers and took over first place for the first time in 2012. In baseball history no team had made up five games in nine to win. Oakland was quickly dispatched from the post season, but it certainly doesn't diminish what they accomplished with baseball's lowest payroll. To repeat this fete the A's will have to have a lot go right. In 2012 they enjoyed 15 walk off wins. 15! If five of those go the other way they're out of the post season altogether. Can they do it? Probably not, but what the hell. It'll be fun to see if they can. 

I told myself I'd try to make it all the way through this piece without a Moneyball reference. So much for that. I'll be brief. Forget about obsession with on base percentage above all else. That was ten years ago, and somehow became a plot point for a Brad Pitt flick (an enjoyable movie I might add.) If you should remember one thing about this oft abused cliche it's this: Moneyball means always tinkering. Big market teams don't tinker. They buy a new Lamborghini or two, but they don't put $500 down on a Corolla from the corner lot. The Oakland A's are the guy down the block that snaps up junkers with faulty wiring and bad transmissions, and fixes them evenings and weekends. What did the guy do? He found value where others didn't. If you play fantasy baseball that's your job too. At least if you want to win every so often. 

Let's see what the A's drove off the lot over the winter. There's the always injured Jed Lowire. The one-time Red Sox prospect stopped over in Houston last season where something intriguing was happening before he.... got injured. Out of the shortstop position Lowrie launched 16 dingers in 253 at-bats. He's always hit the ball in the air, but the power had been lying dormant, stirring from sleep long enough to catch the eye of the A's who traded for him in the off season. If they can just keep him vertical.... Catcher John Jaso arrives via trade as well. In 2012 Jaso was like the only girl at an Siberian prom, leading the meek-hitting Mariners at the plate. Jaso doesn't have much power, but he knows how to get on base. And from Japan comes 30-year-old short stop Hiroyuki Nakajima. The Yankees tried to get him a year ago to fill out the bench, but Nakajima wanted to play everyday. He'll get that chance in Oakland. The track record of Japanese position players in the big leagues is middling at best. 

Returning are players who played huge roles in the 2012 shocker. Cuban Yoenis Cespedes burst into the bigs with a .292/23/82 line in a rookie season interrupted from time to time with nagging injuries. With health there's no reason to doubt he'll be even better. Josh Reddick never got a chance in Boston. What did the A's find? Say it with me...  Value! It was a bumpy second half though. Oakland will need Reddick to take the full ride. Center fielder Coco Crisp can be outstanding. Speed, average, a bit of power.... Not the best arm, and he can never seem to make it through the year without some malady. Last year he missed time with pink eye of all things. As we round out a probable regular line up you can see where the A's value approach most shows their "thrift." Josh Donaldson at third, Brandon Moss at the first, and Adam Rosales at second hardly inspire confidence. Could Jemile Weeks re assert himself at second after a dismal 2012? 

Where the A's organization really shines is evaluating pitchers. Cast your eye around the bigs. How many ex-Athletic pitchers are contributing elsewhere? The new crop catches the eye led by hard throwing lefty Brett Anderson. If only the kid could make it through a year.... Behind him are solid youngsters Jared Parker, Tommy Milone, A.J. Griffin, and Dan Straily. The problem is Oakland brought back Bartolo Colon after the 39-year old-served a 50-game P.E.D. suspension. Baffling. Griffin and Straily will battle for the fifth spot. As I write Griffin holds a decided Cactus League edge. 

Out in the pen Grant Balfour holds the closer role, as he did last spring, only to lose the gig in 2012 to Ryan Cook. Billy Beane has always been a value maximizer with the relief corp. There's no reason to believe they won't be effective again. 

They'll Be Money In Oakland If...

- Cespedes stays healthy. 

- Reddick doesn't fall off another cliff.

- They get 450-plus at-bats from Jed Lowrie.

- And 500-plus from Coco Crisp.

- Brett Anderson logs 25 plus starts.

They'll Be Broke In Oakland If...

- The A's are crushed by injuries.

- The bench fails to give skipper Bob Melvin the flexibility he has to have. 

Bottom Line

83 Wins

Fantasy Target

-Lowrie. Be careful! Don't go early as he's a huge injury risk. If for some reason he can stay healthy, he'll return tremendous profit.

Fantasy Turd

- Nakajima. 30 years old, never much of a hitter in Japan, and doesn't run. 

4. Seattle Mariners

Want to have some dark fun? Pop on Wikipedia and peruse the human wreckage that is the first round of the Major League Baseball June draft over the past decade or so. Karl Marx was big on five-year plans and he had an awesome beard so let's start with 2008. The Rays selected shortstop Tim Beckman No. 1 overall that year. Scouts hailed the prep star as the best high school player in America with "five tools," etc. Today? Stalled out in Triple AAA, and scouts now hail his derriere as his best tool. He'll use it to ride the pines as no better than a major league utility man. Meanwhile the Marlins nabbed the Gatorade High School player of the year, catcher Kyle Skipworth, at No. 6. He made it to Double A in 2010 and is now missing. 

Don't get me wrong, there are some serviceable big leaugers in the first round, and one star: Buster Posey. Others could still hit big (Aaron Hicks, Yonder Alonso, Eric Hosmer, Pedro Alvarez). Mariners first baseman Justin Smoak was selected 11th in 2008 by the Rangers. The jury is still deliberating on that one, and a verdict is expected by July. The point, of course, is that prospects, even top ones, often flame out. Scouts are wrong, just like the rest of us are wrong about all kinds of stuff. The problem is the Seattle Mariners are loaded with these guys. The M's lead the majors in potential it seems, and in 2013 the organization, and especially general manager Jack Zduriencik, needs to begin to see all that potential turn into production. 

Smoak is a good one with whom to start. He was the centerpiece in the Cliff Lee deal of a few seasons back, and has struggled since. Manager Eric Wedge handed him first base this spring, but make no mistake; Smoak must deliver this season. Second sacker Dustin Ackley (pick No. 2, 2009) backed up a strong rookie year with some growing pains last season, hitting just .229. Catcher/DH Jesus Montero has a sweet swing, and managed a .260/15/62 line in his first full season. He seems poised for a breakout, but his defense may never come around. Seattle would like to use him as a DH as much as possible. The problem with that scenario is that Zduriencik brought in three veterans with suspect gloves. A perfect batting order has Montero, Michael Morse, Kendrys Morales, and Raul Ibanez all playing DH, but as I write it's still against the rules. Instead Morse will stand like a statue in left, Morales at first and Ibanez off the bench. 

Rounding out the outfield is "Death To Flying Things" Franklin Gutierrez in center and rising Canadian national Michael Saunders in right. Guti is a stellar defender marred by all manner of injury and illness. The M's will hope for a full year of his glove and take what offense comes with it. Saunders meanwhile ripped through the recent World Baseball Classic with a .747 batting average. The speedy Saunders has some pop and a good glove. Seattle has been very patient and in 2012 that patience started to pay dividends. Don't be shocked at a Saunders break out. 

Kyle Seager was a pleasant surprise at third playing a steady defense and posting a .259 20/86 season. He's probably nearing his ceiling though so don't expect much more than an uptick in batting average. Brendan Ryan is still in the major leagues because he is close to an Ozzie Smith/Omar Vizquel level with the leather. The truly sublime defender can't hit a lick, but you could expect a howl of protest from the pitching staff should Seattle go in another direction. 

With a fat new deal Felix Hernandez anchors a Seattle staff in flux. King Felix was brutal to opposing batters in 2012, crowning the year with an August perfect game for the ages. Down the stretch though he was hittable and fatigue was perhaps a factor. Look for him to be in top form on opening night. Behind him are the solid Hisashi Iwakuma, bland lefty Joe Saunders, soft tosser Blake Beavan, and the surprisingly decent Erasmo Ramirez. As I write this, upstart rookie Brandon Maurer has used to a strong spring to vault himself ahead of more touted prospects and into the starter conversation. If that happens Beavan is likely the odd man out. The organization waits patiently for top-flight pitching prospects Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, and James Paxton to make the jump. 

The bullpen is young and filled with good arms. Ex-bartender Tom Wilhelmsen is as effective a closer as you'll find outside the top five. Carter Capps is a kid to watch as he can top 100 on the gun. Lefty Charlie Furbush has resurrected a flagging career out of the pen in 2012. He'll be one of the more important cogs. Oliver Perez is still in baseball, and was shockingly effective last season. 

A spring filled with home runs and wins has kindled an ember of hope in the northwest. As they say in the Cascade Mountains though, don't sit too close to the fire. Cactus League stats are always as bloated as a beached whale. Until this club does it in a cool, damp Seattle spring it means nothing. 

The Sun Will Burn Off The Elliott Bay Fog If....

- The fences coming in at Safeco will help the hitters and not kill the pitchers.

- Morales, Morse, Ibanez, and Jason Bay are more than just veteran leaders with a lot of interesting stories to tell during plane trips.

- Ackley can rebound at the dish.

- Montero can grow into a serviceable big league receiver.

- By June one of the organization's great young arms is ready to contribute in the bigs.

- Top catching prospect Mike Zumino can come up, take over behind the plate, and allow the M's to trade off one of the vets.

- Gutierrez can stay on the field for at least 140 games. 

- Smoak hits. He has to.

The Fog Will Never Lift If...

- Opponents enjoy the tighter dimensions more than the M's do.

- This is as good as the kids will be.

- All those innings wear King Felix down.

- The other team hits the ball in Michael Morse's direction. 

- The other team hits the ball in Raul Ibanez's direction. 

Bottom Line

78 Wins

Fantasy Target

- Morales. People forget that before he snapped his ankle jumping up and down on home plate (vs Seattle, ironically) he had posted a .306/34/108 season. He'll probably never do that again, but in the second half of 2012 the power returned. You could get .280/25/90 cheap here.

Fantasy Turd

- Seager. I say this as a Seager owner. He's fine, and should improve slightly. It's actually hard to find a turd on this club because outside King Felix, everyone will come to you reasonably priced. That said expectations are a bit too high for Seager as a power hitter. Pay for 2012 and hope for an improvement in average. 

5. Houston Astros

We might have to travel all the way back to the expansion 1962 Mets to find a club like the 2013 Houston Astros. Ironically the Astros played their inaugural campaign that same year and looked like contenders (as the Colt .45's back then) compared to the laughable '62 boys in Flushing. And that's how you have to view the Astros in 2013, their first in the American League West. This is an expansion team, one that will reach untold levels of ineptitude in an otherwise strong, balanced division. 

I'll be brief. First the good news. Most any big league team would love to have speedy 23-year-old Jose Altuve at second. This kid has great plate skills including an improving eye. He can steal plenty of bags, but needs to improve his success rate there. Stanford man Jason Castro is an underrated asset behind the dish. His growth may be hindered by a balky knee however. No. 1 starter Bud Norris has a strike out rate that can stand with anyone's, but needs to continue to improve command. 

Yup, that's about it. Some folks are excited about free swinging center fielder Justin Maxwell, but this kid makes less contact than Adam Dunn. That's no way to go through life, son. Matt Dominguez can flash the leather at third, but there's no pop in that bat. The Astros are tired of waiting for Brett Wallace to amount to much, and brought in Carlos Pena to play good defense, and post a .195/20/55 line. Do I need to keep going? Rick Ankiel? Chris Carter? Tyler Greene? Eric Bedard? God awful. The Houston Astros are said to have a fine farm system, but this is a dismal, depressing team with which to enter a new league. The junior circuit is glad to have them of course. 

They'll Shoot Their Six Guns If....​

- The beer in the park is cold.​

- The Texans begin training camp early.

They'll shoot blanks if...​

- See above.

​​​Bottom Line:

50 Wins. Seriously.​

​​​Fantasy Target:

​-Norris. Cheap strike outs.

​Fantasy Turd:

- Maxwell. People are projecting things on this kid he's not capable of. Avoid.​